Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[kowan]

I was thoroughly surprised by Ant-man. It's the most fun I've had watching a Marvel movie since Guardians of the Galaxy. GotG is still way better though but Ant-man holds well on its own. Definitely better than Thor or Captain America. Hopefully it does well enough in the BO.

[eddyxx]

GOTG was released in a completely different climate. Summer 2014 was completely devoid of any hits. It was released at just THE right time. Maybe Marvel should rethink all those July and November release dates it has in the next few years and consider a April or January release for some of these films.

[Hatebox]

It's ok for Ant-Man. About 10m less and you'd be in 'underperforming' territory though, given how red hot the Marvel brand is. For all the C-lister superhero talk, I think the concept had a lot of action-comedy potential that the move (apparently) didn't quite live up to. It could have been very fresh, but then I'm only saying that based on the perceived reaction. I haven't seen it.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Hatebox

[baumer]

No. Evangeline Lilly is an actress from the Hobbit trilogy and she hates all actors from that franchise with passion.

Yea i know who she is. Shes super hot and shes a Canadian and was on lost.

[Ethan Hunt]

Yea i know who she is. Shes super hot and shes a Canadian and was on lost.

Did you ever get around to reading Paper Towns? I know you asked me about it at one point

[redfirebird2008]

I was thoroughly surprised by Ant-man. It's the most fun I've had watching a Marvel movie since Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

You say this like Guardians is really old or something. It came out less than a year ago and there was only one MCU movie in between Guardians and Ant-Man.

[grim22]

GOTG was released in a completely different climate. Summer 2014 was completely devoid of any hits. It was released at just THE right time. Maybe Marvel should rethink all those July and November release dates it has in the next few years and consider a April or January release for some of these films.

 

Agreed. GOTG was seeing articles written for "Will Guardians save the summer box office" in the weeks leading to release. Still can't believe the completely shitty July we had last year. The box office was looking for a breakout, it broke out bigger than expected but it had everything lined up perfectly, including 50 Shades moving out of that release date.

 

Ant-Man also had things lined up well, especially since no big live-action movie has done well since Jurassic World, but competition for family audiences didn't help.

[CJohn]

I was thoroughly surprised by Ant-man. It's the most fun I've had watching a Marvel movie since Guardians of the Galaxy. 

Not hard. There was only one movie between them  

[CJohn]

Agreed. GOTG was seeing articles written for "Will Guardians save the summer box office" in the weeks leading to release. Still can't believe the completely shitty July we had last year. The box office was looking for a breakout, it broke out bigger than expected but it had everything lined up perfectly, including 50 Shades moving out of that release date.

 

Ant-Man also had things lined up well, especially since no big live-action movie has done well since Jurassic World, but competition for family audiences didn't help.

When GotG2 makes 130/320 the freak outs over here are gonna be amazing. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Trainwreck is probably being underestimated today. Most of Apatow's films (especially in the summer) have good Sunday holds, and there are still a decent amount of sellouts nearby. However, it's probably doing much better in cities and more northern areas than Rural/South locations, primarily by catering to more of a hip, younger crowd. If my theaters were any indication (I live in a decently urban area, about 40 minutes west of Detroit), it would have done more than it did.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Spaghetti

[BenedictL11]

Ant-Man could have held better. The small opening and lack of family-friendly tentpoles after Pixels should help it get a 2.7x-3x. So it's on its way to $150-170 million DOM. Pretty solid considering the budget.

 

Minions held great considering how low its Friday was. $340-350 million is the likely final DOM. Phenomenal for a spinoff that isn't getting stellar reviews. Anything over DM1's DOM would be great for this.

 

Trainwreck's on its way to $100-120 million DOM. Apatow got his mojo back. Vacation should hurt its legs, unfortunately. Otherwise, I'd say $125-145 million DOM 

 

Inside Out and Jurassic World keep holding great. IO should get at least to $340-345 million DOM, while JW should make a serious run for Titanic's $658 million 

 

Hopefully, Pixels and Paper Towns can keep up the pace! 

IO should get to $350M.

 

Vacation is not going to be THAT BIG. It will be more on the level of Tammy (Social Media Buzz is worse than Tammy at this rate, which is even weaker than expected given that it should be doing way better due to the brand).

 

Keep in mind, it increased on Saturday even with inflated previews. For this type of film, it could have decreased like Bad Teacher and The Ugly Truth. 

 

Other than Vacation & Paper Towns (targeting females with the latter targeting teens due to it being from the creator of TFIOS, which was frontloaded despite fantastic WOM), it doesn't have much competition for the rest of the summer for the targeted audience. Plus, having the same audience percentage as Bridesmaids is a great sign going forward with its legs.

 

If Bridesmaids can survive against Hangover 2, why can't TW hold well in the 30s for its third weekend. Less than $120M for Trainwreck? Not happening, IMO. 4+ multiplier is a lock if it can drop under 40% next weekend, which is happening for now.

 

I'm thinking more like $130-150M as its final total but could go higher depending on how it holds during the week and female-oriented films during the summer often have strong weekdays.

Edited July 19, 2015 by BEEJAYGRAD11

[baumer]

Not yet Ethan. Im too busy right now lol.

[grim22]

Seriously though, Mission: Impossible has everything needed to open huge. No huge action movie since JW, IMAX  and PLF screens and no competition on weekend of release. Paramount just need to ramp up the marketing big time.

[baumer]

Not hard. There was only one movie between them

I was thinking the same thing lol.

[JennaJ]

While GOTG had less competition, I think bottom line wouldn't have been drastically different if Ant-Man was to open in that slot last year having the same marketing and promo as it had. It's not like the market is completely saturated and nothing has room to break out. You could argue that point more easily for movies that opened right after JW, and even then you have IO as a perfect example that a great, well marketed movie can find huge success even in the wake of a monster hit. If IO could do that with JW, Ant-Man could do it with Minions... if it was well marketed and more appealing.

[PDC1987]

Trainwreck is probably being underestimated today. Most of Apatow's films (especially in the summer) have good Sunday holds, and there are still a decent amount of sellouts nearby. However, it's probably doing much better in cities and more northern areas than Rural/South locations, primarily by catering to more of a hip, younger crowd. If my theaters were any indication (I live in a decently urban area, about 40 minutes west of Detroit), it would have done more than it did.

I think it will stay above $30 million with actuals.

[BenedictL11]

I think it will stay above $30 million with actuals.

Definitely agree. The Saturday increase even with previews inflated (which is very rare for summer comedies in July and AUgust, is a good sign going forward).

[The Futurist]

Poor McQuarrie.

When he got that Paramount phone call : " Dude we are releasing the movie Late July not mid december.

You ve just lost 5 months of post. Please hurry the fuck up."

[kowan]

You say this like Guardians is really old or something. It came out less than a year ago and there was only one MCU movie in between Guardians and Ant-Man.

Yeah but I don't really watch all movies when they get released in cinemas. Most of the time I watch them at home years after they get released.

[acetabulum7]

Wow, what a low opening for Ant-Man.  People just weren't really interested, and I'm guessing it simply wasn't as fresh and amazing as Guardians.

 

Will this even break $150M anymore?