Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[JohnnyGossamer]

Very nice preview numbers for both. Very nice. Thinking an easy $35M+ for Trainwreck and an easy $65M+ for Ant-Man. But, honestly expecting both to go higher.

[a2k]

Looks like 60-65m for Antman. Depending on where it lands in that range, will need a to do 3 to 3.33x to touch 200m.

Antman over/under TASM2 would have been a fun club. ant vs spider lol.

Edited July 17, 2015 by a2k

[Chewy]

I know baumer and I and a few others called a Trainwreck breakout in the summer game, so cheers to that

[Jessie]

Okay this is really really weird. I don't have any interest in ant man I don't have any animosity towards it either but I have no real interest in it. Having said that I had a dream last night that a man did 6.4 million in previews. Why the hell I'm dreaming about a man doing any kind of money during anything is beyond me. I even dreamt that somebody started a thread with the 6.4 million dollar number. I am now freaked out lol[/quote

Can you dream next week's lottery as 5, 12, 17, 3, 40 and the bonus ball as 11 please

[Hatebox]

Looks like 60-65m for Antman. Depending on where it lands in that range, will need a to do 3 to 3.33x to touch 200m.

Antman over/under TASM2 would have been a fun club. ant vs spider lol.

 

It has 2 weeks to make as much money as it can. I know expectations for M:I-5 aren't high on here, but I think it'll perform solidly enough.

[redfirebird2008]

His projections and extrapolations are always awful.

 

Except in this case he is making a good comparison with Guardians. Both released with kids out of school, both "new" concepts instead of sequels, and both released in the recent era where Marvel has actually started showing more frontloadedness over its weekends because they have built their brand to a point where they have more support upfront. The 7 PM shows certainly don't hurt.

 

Just look at Cap 1 in July compared to Guardians in August. Cap made $4m midnight and then $65m for the weekend, a multiplier of 16.25. Guardians made $11.2m previews and then $94.3m for the weekend, a multiplier of 8.4. Recent trends with Marvel do not suggest that a 10 multi is locked by any means.

[Lestranger]

So Trainwreck's Thursday is 20% higher than Spy's yet its weekend take is going to be 35% lower?  Mmmhmmm...

 

Trainwreck is doing over 30, no doubt in my mind. Thinking maybe 35, WOM is fire right now.

[Chewy]

Except in this case he is making a good comparison with Guardians. Both released with kids out of school, both "new" concepts instead of sequels, and both released in the recent era where Marvel has actually started showing more frontloadedness over its weekends because they have built their brand to a point where they have more support upfront. The 7 PM shows certainly don't hurt.

 

Just look at Cap 1 in July compared to Guardians in August. Cap made $4m midnight and then $65m for the weekend, a multiplier of 16.25. Guardians made $11.2m previews and then $94.3m for the weekend, a multiplier of 8.4. Recent trends with Marvel do not suggest that a 10 multi is locked by any means.

 

That's got a lot to do with the shift from traditional midnights to previews post-TDKR

[DAJK]

Okay this is really really weird. I don't have any interest in ant man I don't have any animosity towards it either but I have no real interest in it. Having said that I had a dream last night that a man did 6.4 million in previews. Why the hell I'm dreaming about a man doing any kind of money during anything is beyond me. I even dreamt that somebody started a thread with the 6.4 million dollar number. I am now freaked out lol

Lol I just woke up from a dream where Rth's early Friday number had Trainwreck at 24-26M and somebody started a thread titled "2015 is the year of the gods: Trainwreck over AoU DOM"

[lab276]

~170-180m for the top 5 based on current speculation, way up from last year.

[goldenstate5]

Looks like 60-65m for Antman. Depending on where it lands in that range, will need a to do 3 to 3.33x to touch 200m.

Antman over/under TASM2 would have been a fun club. ant vs spider lol.

 

Gotta be well over TASM2. WOM will be much better.

[grim22]

~170-180m for the top 5 based on current speculation, way up from last year.

 

Not shocking, last year July sucked.

[kayumanggi]

Marvel's ANT-MAN debuted with $6.4M last night and is headed for $65M+ this weekend.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice)

July 17, 2015

[redfirebird2008]

That's got a lot to do with the shift from traditional midnights to previews post-TDKR

 

That's a big part of it but it's not the only thing.

[Fancyarcher]

So Trainwreck is gonna have the same previews to OW ratio as Ted 2, a sequel? They just need to pack it in already.

 

Deadline is being extremely conservative, especially since some showtimes haven't even started on the west coast.

 

Remember when Inside Out was originally underestimated at 67m? Yeah, something like that could happen.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Insidearcher

[JohnnyGossamer]

How's the the post-preview buzz on social media for Ant-Man and Trainwreck?

 

Edit: Apologies for also posting this in the Ant-Man topic.

[Chewy]

Not shocking, last year July sucked.

 

Planes 2 and Sex Tape as the openers. And RIPD/Turbo (Ryan Reynolds combo) 2 years ago

 

That's a big part of it but it's not the only thing.

 

Right, Marvel has become a big brand with the GA. But I do think any comparison to a movie that opened in the actual midnights era is a bit... dubious 

[a2k]

Gotta be well over TASM2. WOM will be much better.

True, but it will also start the ow with about 25m less.

[redfirebird2008]

 

 

Right, Marvel has become a big brand with the GA. But I do think any comparison to a movie that opened in the actual midnights era is a bit... dubious 

 

The point being I don't think some of the people calling 70+ a lock have adjusted to the current era.

 

They also aren't being very thorough if they are comparing it to films that opened outside of the heart of summer, which tends to be the case with Marvel. Guardians is actually the best comparison we have across the board: original property instead of sequel, released in the 7 PM preview era, and released in the heart of summer instead of April, early May, November, etc.

[grim22]

Planes 2 and Sex Tape as the openers. And RIPD/Turbo (Ryan Reynolds combo) 2 years ago

 

 

Right, Marvel has become a big brand with the GA. But I do think any comparison to a movie that opened in the actual midnights era is a bit... dubious 

 

The shift to earlier and earlier previews has just made comparisons harder. For example, Ant-Man opened bigger than Captain America, Thor and Iron Man did, but all of those only had midnight showings, even Cap 2 and Thor 2 aren't great comparisons as those were showtimes starting at 8pm onwards with no school holidays at the time.