Weekend Estimates (pg31): The Martian 37 | HT2 20.3 | Pan 15.5 | Intern 8.66 | Sicario 7.35 | The Walk 3.65 | Steve Jobs 521k

[Fancyarcher]

Signs the past few days had been indicating a sub-$20M opening, which would be even more catastrophic. An opening similar t Tomorrowland would be considering something of a (very minor) win at this point.

 

Pan had a worse average then Tomorrowland did, even with way more theaters.

[dudalb]

Expectations are so low that reaching 20M is "not terrible" or "not awful".

It's terrible for a film with an 150 Million budget.

 

I am tired of this Bullshit of talking about if a number is "good" or not without taking how much a film cost into consideration.

I am tired of this mindless rooting for every big budget film that comes along.

[Plain Old Tele]

I am tired of this mindless rooting for every big budget film that comes along.

 

I don't think many here are rooting for PAN at all.

[dudalb]

"It could have done worse. Tomorrowland did better."

How does this make any sense?

Of course it could have done worse. But 650 Thou Thursday night still means "Huge Bomb" for "Pan",

[dudalb]

I don't think many here are rooting for PAN at all.

Maybe you are right, it is just acting like a low 20's opening for a 150 Million film is "not that bad" which gets to me.

[Mojoguy]

On this weekend last year, Dracula Untold had $1.3 million previews and opened to $23.5 million. Granted it was more aimed at teens and not kids, but I wonder if Pan will even go that high?

Two completely different movies.

[DAR]

Maybe you are right, it is just acting like a low 20's opening for a 150 Million film is "not that bad" which gets to me.

 

 

I think that's why it was in quotes.

[Maxmoser3]

Pan will still probably get between 16-19 million OW

[dudalb]

A extra three or four million one way or the other does not change the main fact: "Pan" is going to be be a big bomb.

Warners is not having a very good year;of all their big summer movies only "San Andreas" was a hit, and the red ink from it's flops is going to eat up the profits from "San Andreas".

[MovieMan89]

I'm more surprised by the reviews. They're  pretty horrid, and honestly how hard should it be to make a mildly entertaining family film off of Peter Pan? Not very if you ask me. 

[Amadeus]

A extra three or four million one way or the other does not change the main fact: "Pan" is going to be be a big bomb.

Warners is not having a very good year;of all their big summer movies only "San Andreas" was a hit, and the red ink from it's flops is going to eat up the profits from "San Andreas".

WB has, on paper, had a decent year. Of the total domestic gross 2015 WB has a 16% share (which of course should not be compared to the amazing 27% share of Universal). But one thing is for sure: if it was not for American Sniper the share would be down at maybe 12% which would be the worst year for WB in a long time. 

[Plain Old Tele]

I don't think Warners' year has been that awful. Up to this point, only U.N.C.L.E. has been a significant underperformer (at least in terms of budget).

Edited October 9, 2015 by Telemachos

[Frozen]

I don't think Warners' year has been that awful. Up to this point, only U.N.C.L.E. has been a significant underperformer (at least in terms of budget).

 

Jupiter Ascending was a pretty big flop. $176 million budget and only made $183,887,723 million worldwide. 

[filmlover]

I don't think Warners' year has been that awful. Up to this point, only U.N.C.L.E. has been a significant underperformer (at least in terms of budget).

 

They aren't exactly having a good year, though. Their 2015 has mostly consisted of movies that either lost money or barely made a profit (and it's probably safe to say they're getting red pen ready for In the Heart of the Sea and Point Break two months beforehand). They're probably thinking, "well, at least we got some surefire hits next year."

[grim22]

They aren't exactly having a good year, though. Their 2015 has mostly consisted of movies that either lost money or barely made a profit (and it's probably safe to say they're getting red pen ready for In the Heart of the Sea and Point Break two months beforehand). They're probably thinking, "well, at least we got some surefire hits next year."

 

2015 was a weird year for them for sure. No movies releasing this year were actually greenlit by the current leadership. I think "Midnight Special" next March will be the first movie which can be directly attributed to the Tsujihara regime. 

 

Their slate this year did not look inspiring at all minus San Andreas which will turn out to be their biggest hit of 2014. They had no major tentpoles, no huge IPs and don't even have a big holiday release. They don't even look like having a big Oscar contender.

[Plain Old Tele]

Jupiter Ascending was a pretty big flop. $176 million budget and only made $183,887,723 million worldwide. 

 

You're right, I was mainly thinking about the summer. And the follow-up posts are true as well: they haven't had any giant break-out hits. But still, a year with a steady diet of slightly profitable movies is hardly the worst thing ever.

[TServo2049]

Jupiter Ascending was a pretty big flop. $176 million budget and only made $183,887,723 million worldwide.

http://www.boxofficeflops.com/yearly-breakdowns/2015-2/jupiter-ascending/

This site is interesting, this person runs the numbers to determine which movies actually did lose money for the studio/financiers, based on how much was spent on production/marketing versus how much of the gross was left over after theaters took their cut. I'm sure there's a lot of math guesswork involved, but this person comes out with $87 million, saying it just fell short of covering the WW marketing costs (apparently, from another article on the site, nobody gets any money back until the marketing costs are fully covered). That would mean the film lost its entire production budget.

(Wikipedia estimates it only lost $87m - they divide WW gross by 2 and subtract the budget. Either way, it lost money.)

Edited October 9, 2015 by TServo2049

[CJohn]

2015 was a weird year for them for sure. No movies releasing this year were actually greenlit by the current leadership. I think "Midnight Special" next March will be the first movie which can be directly attributed to the Tsujihara regime. 

 

Their slate this year did not look inspiring at all minus San Andreas which will turn out to be their biggest hit of 2014. They had no major tentpoles, no huge IPs and don't even have a big holiday release. They don't even look like having a big Oscar contender.

POINT BREAK?!?!?!??! IN THE HEART OF THE SEA?!?!?!?!?!

 

[dudalb]

2015 was a weird year for them for sure. No movies releasing this year were actually greenlit by the current leadership. I think "Midnight Special" next March will be the first movie which can be directly attributed to the Tsujihara regime. 

 

 

WHich, for course, gives the current managment a "Get Out Of Jail Free" card for a dissapointing year.

Problem was that most of the profits their sucesses made were eaten up by the red ink from their failures. They won't have big losses,but won't have much profit either.

[grim22]

POINT BREAK?!?!?!??! IN THE HEART OF THE SEA?!?!?!?!?!

 

 

Technically Creed is probably their big holiday release. In the heart of the sea has the worst release date in the history of bad release dates, a second weekend drop to rival Hellboy 2 would not shock me. I actually think Point Break will not flop as hard as everyone is expecting, I think around 47 Ronin numbers more or less. Point Break is not produced by WB anyway, it is just them distributing, so it won't hurt them as much, in fact it has way too many production houses and even more distribution houses so no one will be burnt too badly by it.