FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[Jason]

I'm willing to go on the record saying that Finding Dory will definitely hit $1 billion. You can (and should) throw this back at me if it doesn't.

Not going to rehash the analyses that have been done so far (but I've included some of them below). But essentially even the most conservative territory-by-territory estimates reach a total of $1 billion. While it's quite possible for Dory to underperform a conservative estimate in some of its remaining markets, it will also probably outperform conservative estimates in other markets. Overall, it becomes very unlikely for the final total to drop below the total predicted using conservative estimates.

 

Spoiler

 

Some analyses done so far with territory-by-territory breakdowns, in reverse chronological order:

 

14 hours ago, YourMother said:

Guys, Dory is still on track for 1 billion. I added all the territories so far minus Japan, Hong Kong, and Mexico. The territories added up together made 280.7 so far with about 20 million left in the tank, making 300.7. In Japan, it seems it'll make 60-65 million. In Hong Kong, it'll make either 6-7 million. In Mexico, it'll make 29-31 million. Making a range of 397 to 405 million. For the rest of its territories, U.K. seems like it could make 60-65 million with a chance of 70 million. Based on Toy Story 3 and Monsters University, Germany and Italy, I see about 35-40 million combined. If it follows Inside Out, the other markets left will make about 21 million. And in America, it'll finish between $488-500 million. At the low end it'll make 513 overseas, on the high end it'll make 535 million overseas. 

The total would be anywhere between 1.002 billion to 1.035 billion. I think it'll make about 1.005 billion.

22 hours ago, Claudio said:

$1B WW is still likely for Finding Dory.

This weekend , it made $4M in Mexico so maybe around $10M more from there.

In Japan it made $4.8M for 35% drop. Expect a final total around $60M so $40M left.

Another $11M Elsewhere , I hope they could bring in another $35M.

$25M domestic still on the tank.

Right now it stands at $781M WW so 781 + 25 + 35 + 40 + 10 = $890M ( hope it can reach $900M )

UK + Germany + Italy just need to contribute another $100M. Considering Nemo made around $120M in that market back in 2002 , that would be an easy feat

For Dory.

On 7/18/2016 at 11:43 AM, Olive said:

DOM should add 40-50M,heading to $485-495M

OS:

HK+Japan+Mexico should add around 95-100M 

UK+Germany+Italy=100-110M

Other markets 50-60M.

OS heading to $520-550M

 

I think 1B is very likely,and the high end is 1.05B or very close to TS3.

On 7/18/2016 at 11:41 AM, Jason said:

Definitely. Markets that opened prior to this past weekend should end up grossing around $295M total. Mexico, Hong Kong, and Japan opened over the weekend. Japan is a pretty leggy market, so $75M is in play there. Mexico's opening makes a total of $35M pretty likely, assuming decent legs (which has generally been the case in Latin America). Hong Kong around $8M, I think.

UK opens at the end of July. Projection from the UK thread is $75M, taking into account Brexit. 

 

A number of European markets open up from late August to late September, including Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden, Norway, and Finland. I didn't find any specific predictions from their respective threads, but I looked at how IO and Nemo did in those markets and I think it's reasonable to expect $80M or more from those markets combined. Quite possible for a lot more if Dory does well in Germany and Italy.

 

295+75+35+8+75+80= ~$570M OS total.

Domestic total is still on track for at least $480M ~$490M I think. 490+570 = $1,060M

 

 

 

[Quigley]

At least it surpassed Deadpool by Sunday

[DeeCee]

It looks like Dory will now fall short of AUD50m and therefore also short of Shrek 2.

[kayumanggi]

322.5 M overseas | 783.8 M worldwide

[Fullbuster]

What's new? New territories?

[Purple Minion]

#FindingDory climbs to $469M making it #8 all-time domestic. $830.5M global. China at $38.4M which is NOT among top toons there this yr.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) 31 July 2016

[YM!]

My current prediction for Dory WW

USA: $490

UK: $60

Japan: $70

Italy: $17

Germany: $18

HK: $6.5

Mexico: $30

Rest Of The World: $340

Total: $1,031 Billion

[Purple Minion]

FINDING DORY found another $23M overseas this weekend, for a total of $361M int'l, $830M worldwide.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) 31 July 2016

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

What's new? New territories?

Finding Dory opened in the UK to £8.2M ($10.8M).

[Giesi]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

My current prediction for Dory WW

USA: $490

UK: $60

Japan: $70

Italy: $17

Germany: $18

HK: $6.5

Mexico: $30

Rest Of The World: $340

Total: $1,031 Billion

$18M in Germany? Really???

[titanic2187]

japan and SK are holding well this week, $1b, dory is coming!

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

Finding Dory opened in the UK to £8.2M ($10.8M).

 

It's a good start right?

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Giesi said:

$18M in Germany? Really???

TS3 and MU didn't make much in Germany and I can see that for FD.

[Jason]

19 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

It's a good start right?

 

I think so. Snippets from the UK thread:

 

On 7/25/2016 at 5:52 PM, Heretic said:

If anything has the potential to top Minions as the biggest 3-day animated opening (£11.7m), its Dory. ~snip~

 

Anyway, I think it'll just miss the 3-day record, with £10.5m. For comparison, TS3 opened to £11.5m, Shrek 2 £10.6m, Shrek 3 £10.3m, and DM2 £10m. All are 3-day figures, but all had previews beforehand, so Dory could potentially do more as no demand has been burnt off. Then again, there's also no rush as its summer holidays now.

 

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

£8.2m is still impressive for an animated film considering it had no previews.

 

1 hour ago, Heretic said:

Better for Dory. Good opening, should have a very long run.

 

1 hour ago, Heretic said:

I imagine Dory will have strong weekday business.

 

 

[Giesi]

20 minutes ago, YourMother said:

TS3 and MU didn't make much in Germany and I can see that for FD.

Just compare TS1 and Monsters Inc. numbers in Germany with Finding Nemo's boxoffice run! FD is still the biggest computer-animated movie here and beloved by so many people. $10M+ opening weekend (~1.1M admissions) is completely possible and a $55M - $60M total sounds reasonable!

[Damianport1]

Yeah thats good opening in UK, right with the expectations

[YM!]

Doing some more math, Dory without Japan, HK, UK, and Mexico made $296 million OS. I now see Dory making about 320 OS without said territories. Dory had a sub 10% drop in Japan. If it keeps on having good drops, Dory will make about $65-70 Million in Japan. Dory had another drop over 50% in Mexico, I think it'll make $27 Million now instead of $30. Hong Kong, Dory will likely end with $6.2-$6.5 Million. UK, Dory made $10.8 million dollars without previews. Since Dory has little competition, I can see it legging it to $55-60 million. In Germany and Italy it'll make about $35 million combined if it follows TS3 and MU, if it follows IO it'll make $45-50 million. In the other territories left, Dory should make about an extra $21 million if it copies Inside Out. 

Edit 1: After further research on Nemo's BO in Germany, I now see it doing anywhere from $40M to $70M.

Worst Case: 490+320+65+27+6.5+55+21+57=$1,042 billion

Middle: $1,055 billion 

Best: $1,070 to 1,075 billion 

My Prediction: $1,060 billion

Edited July 31, 2016 by YourMother

[Quigley]

Germany will make much more than $18M. The first one was massive there and since it's not opening during the summer, it will avoid the good-weather weekends that destroyed it in France. I think that's the biggest problem with Dory: the holidays are a better time for most European countries to open these animated blockbusters – or at least fall (see Italy, Germany, France). So personally, I remain very optimistic for Italy, Germany, Greece and others that open in fall.

[Quigley]

That being said, SLOP just opened to $7.1M in Germany and $5.4M in France (the latter is higher than Dory), so maybe we can return to our generally disappointed state for Dory's performance.

[ttr]

Germany will make much more than $18M. The first one was massive there and since it's not opening during the summer, it will avoid the good-weather weekends that destroyed it in France. I think that's the biggest problem with Dory: the holidays are a better time for most European countries to open these animated blockbusters – or at least fall (see Italy, Germany, France). So personally, I remain very optimistic for Italy, Germany, Greece and others that open in fall.

I thought Euro2016 was responsible for Dory's disappointment in France(?)