FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[Purple Minion]

Forgot that it still has to open in Italy.  Nemo did over $27M, same as IO.

[keysersoze123]

Plus scandinavian markets. I am sure it will be extremely leggy on all those markets. Its  making 1B and beating Zootopia as well. I definitely hope so.

[Planodisney]

If you look at the numbers of all current markets, it's going over 300 million in those markets.  It will do 130-160 in Mexico, Germany and UK.  90-110 in Japan.  That's well over 500 million and realistically it could push 600.

Anything is possible but I cant find a realistic scenario, when looking at performance in current markets, and upcoming market probabilities based upon markets most similar to them, that Dory doesn't easily pass 500 million.

What I mean, is that a massive breakout in Australia and the U.S. virtually always means a massive performance in the U.K. as well.

Argentina and Brazil point to a huge performance in Mexico and pre-sales in Japan as well as the popularity of Nemo there point to a big run in Japan. And that doesn't even take into account Italy and Scandinavia and the other markets that could earn another 50 million.  This reminds me of when I was on a different site back when Monsters University was opening staggered like this and was sitting on me numbers OS.  I was telling people this was going well over 400 OS and towards 750 WW if you actually look inside the numbers.  

People kept doubting and arguing as its run went on for what seamed like forever with the staggered release OS.

 

Edited July 10, 2016 by Planodisney

[CoolK]

FINDING DORY
Disney/Pixar’s forgetful fish remembered to turn up in Korea, Taiwan and Lebanon this weekend, helping net an overseas frame worth $29.7M in 40 total territories. The international cume is now $220.2M for a global reel of $642.8M. This helped push Disney over $5B at the global box office in record time. Last year, Disney hit that milestone for the first time ever on December 20. The studio also crossed $3B internationally this week. Cumes are estimated at $3.05B international and $5.02B global.

Korea welcomed Dory with open fins, giving the film Pixar’s best opening weekend ever and the No. 2 best for a Disney Animation, behind Frozen. The take there was $7.1M. Per comScore, it came in ahead of local pic Seondal: The Man Who Sells The River with $6.2M. In Taiwan, Dory posted the 3rd biggest opening weekend ever for Disney and Pixar with a No. 1 start and an estimated $1.9M.

In holdover markets, the EMEA region dropped 36% overall while in the UAE, Dorywill become the highest-ever grossing Disney Animation or Pixar release this week. The rest of the Middle East opened this frame to what are expected to be the biggest Disney Animation and/or Pixar openings of all time in the region. Dory also held No. 1 in Spain for the 4th consecutive weekend

In Australia, the blue tang and the gang have the current behind them with a 4th No. 1 weekend at $3.8M and besting newcomer Tarzan. The Andrew Stanton-helmed sequel is the longest-running No. 1 film of 2016 in Oz and has a cume of $30.1M. In less than four full weeks of release in Australia, Dory is already the No 2 biggest Disney/Pixar release (after Toy Story 3) and the No. 3 biggest animated film ever. Indonesia now registers Finding Dory as its biggest Disney animation or Pixar release ever, as do India and the Philippines.

In Brazil, Dory splashed up an estimated $5.1M ($17.1M cume) in her sophomore session and continues to play great across Latin America. In China, where Dory is headed to the end of her run, the total is $38.1M. That’s the biggest Pixar gross ever in a market that just doesn’t seem to be as charmed by the brand as the rest of the globe. However, for the time being, China remains the top offshore play, followed by Oz, Brazil, France ($13.7M cume) and Spain ($13.2M). Next weekend adds Mexico, Japan and Hong Kong while the UK, Italy and Germany are still on deck.

[Aristis]

I hope France isn't any sign for things to come in Germany... It isn't really predictable here - it's still 2 1/2 months. It could do anything from $25M to $65M. I'm just hoping it'll reach the higher end.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Aristis

[Fullbuster]

15 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I hope France isn't any sign for things to come in Germany... It isn't really predictable here - it's still 2 1/2 months. It could do anything from $25M to $65M. I'm just hoping it'll reach the higher end.

France was busy : Euro Cup, sunny days back after months of rain/dark clouds and Brexit.

Germany won't suffer from such a series of events. It should be fine.

[keysersoze123]

legs in france has been good. I hope it will continue now that Euro is done.

[misafeco]

FD will easily beat Zootopia WW.

[Planodisney]

Yah.  The more I look inside the numbers the more you can see it could crush Zootopia worldwide.

The absolute best way I've found to predict Dorys OS is to look at Monsters University which finished 475 OS.  For example, MU grossed about 4 million in South Korea while Dory will absolutely smash that.  MU made 20 million in Australia while Dory has already made 30 million there and is still in the middle of its run.  It will double MU in Australia.  They will finish about even in France but MU only made 13 million in Germany and Dory will most likely double that at the very least.  Yes there are 1 or 2 markets that MU did somewhat better than Dory, but by and large in almost every market Dory is either somewhat outperforming or absolutely smashing MU's gross and all sign point to that continuing throughout its run.

Im more convinced than ever that it will finish much closer to 600 than 500 considering MU finished at 475.  

Edited July 11, 2016 by Planodisney

[Fullbuster]

I don't see Dory crushing Zootopia, slightly higher at best and that's fine.

[Planodisney]

Yah I guess crushing is a bit too strong.  Even if it reached 600 OS and 500 domestic to reach 1.1 billion, you couldn't really define that as crushing.

[Agafin]

19 hours ago, cannastop said:

I am unsure of $500m outside of USA+Canada.

 

Mainly because the Pound and the Euro have tanked.

 

 

Do tell me, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million? I have the impression that the gradual rollout of Dory is making (some of) you unable to truly analyse its run (until its done).

 

See, let's use Inside Out as a reference. Dory has already grossed more than $20 million more than IO in China. It has already outgrossed the entirety of IO in Brazil in just two weeks and will likely gross $15 to $20 million more than it when all is said and done. In Australia, it has already entirely beaten IO and is looking to end up with $15 million or more over IO. Inside Out had great legs in South Korea so Dory might not reach it there but given the fact that Dory just had the biggest Pixar opening there and that it's WOM isn't bad, it's probably not going to be too far behind. France and Spain came in way behind expectations but it's legs there have been fantastic and it looks like it might reach about $20 million in both countries which would only be ~$15 million behind IO's combined gross in those countries.

 

Other biggies like Mexico which have yet to open will certainly either match or come close to IO given the reception in countries like Brazil (where it had a record breaking opening and felt less than 30% despite IA5's opening). In Japan, the absolute worst case scenario for FD is probably $50 million, and that would still be close to $20 million higher than IO's gross there. $100 million there seems likelier and that would be a $70 million (!) advantage over IO. Even with the fall of the pound, The UK is still looking to gross over $20 million more than IO there should it make 60 million pounds (like the DOM and Aus performances seem to be pointing towards). The only country where Dory will substantially lose over IO ($20m +) is Venezuella thanks to the absolute collapse of their currency. All in all, countries like France, Russia and Spain might come in $7 to $8 million below IO while the combined grosses of Brazil, China, Japan, Australia and The UK (to name only these) will make anywhere between $120 and $150 million more than IO. Dory could bomb in Germany and Italy beyond belief (something I'm not expecting btw) and it would still come in comfortably ahead of IO.

 

Now IO still grossed $500m OS despite all of of this. So my question again, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million OS? It seems to me like we should be discussing its chances at $600m or $700m rather than $500m.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Agafin

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Do tell me, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million? I have the impression that the gradual rollout of Dory is making (some of) you unable to truly analyse its run (until its done).

 

See, let's use Inside Out as a reference. Dory has already grossed more than $20 million more than IO in China. It has already outgrossed the entirety of IO in Brazil in just two weeks and will likely gross $15 to $20 million more than it when all is said and done. In Australia, it has already entirely beaten IO and is looking to end up with $15 million or more over IO. Inside Out had great legs in South Korea so Dory might not reach it there but given the fact that Dory just had the biggest Pixar opening there and that it's WOM isn't bad, it's probably not going to be too far behind. France and Spain came in way behind expectations but it's legs there have been fantastic and it looks like it might reach about $20 million in both countries which would only be ~$15 million behind IO's combined gross in those countries.

 

Other biggies like Mexico which have yet to open will certainly either match or come close to IO given the reception in countries like Brazil (where it had a record breaking opening and felt less than 30% despite IA5's opening). In Japan, the absolute worst case scenario for FD is probably $50 million, and that would still be close to $20 million higher than IO's gross there. $100 million there seems likelier and that would be a $70 million (!) advantage over IO. Even with the fall of the pound, The UK is still looking to gross over $20 million more than IO there should it make 60 million pounds (like the DOM and Aus performances seem to be pointing towards). The only country where Dory will substantially lose over IO ($20m +) is Venezuella thanks to the absolute collapse of their currency. All in all, countries like France, Russia and Spain might come in $7 to $8 million below IO while the combined grosses of Brazil, China, Japan, Australia and The UK (to name only these) will make anywhere between $120 and $150 million more than IO. Dory could bomb in Germany and Italy beyond belief (something I'm not expecting btw) and it would still come in comfortably ahead of IO.

 

Now IO still grossed $500m OS despite all of of this. So my question again, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million OS? It seems to me like we should be discussing its chances at $600m or $700m rather than $500m.

 

Exactly, Toy Story 3 numbers (650M OS) should probably be a good reference point, Dory is outperforming TS3 in many markets, although TS3 did do extremely well in UK and Japan, Dory could still make up any differences in other markets (China, Korea, Taiwan, Latin America, potentially Germany/Italy).

[Fullbuster]

57 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Do tell me, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million? I have the impression that the gradual rollout of Dory is making (some of) you unable to truly analyse its run (until its done).

 

See, let's use Inside Out as a reference. Dory has already grossed more than $20 million more than IO in China. It has already outgrossed the entirety of IO in Brazil in just two weeks and will likely gross $15 to $20 million more than it when all is said and done. In Australia, it has already entirely beaten IO and is looking to end up with $15 million or more over IO. Inside Out had great legs in South Korea so Dory might not reach it there but given the fact that Dory just had the biggest Pixar opening there and that it's WOM isn't bad, it's probably not going to be too far behind. France and Spain came in way behind expectations but it's legs there have been fantastic and it looks like it might reach about $20 million in both countries which would only be ~$15 million behind IO's combined gross in those countries.

 

Other biggies like Mexico which have yet to open will certainly either match or come close to IO given the reception in countries like Brazil (where it had a record breaking opening and felt less than 30% despite IA5's opening). In Japan, the absolute worst case scenario for FD is probably $50 million, and that would still be close to $20 million higher than IO's gross there. $100 million there seems likelier and that would be a $70 million (!) advantage over IO. Even with the fall of the pound, The UK is still looking to gross over $20 million more than IO there should it make 60 million pounds (like the DOM and Aus performances seem to be pointing towards). The only country where Dory will substantially lose over IO ($20m +) is Venezuella thanks to the absolute collapse of their currency. All in all, countries like France, Russia and Spain might come in $7 to $8 million below IO while the combined grosses of Brazil, China, Japan, Australia and The UK (to name only these) will make anywhere between $120 and $150 million more than IO. Dory could bomb in Germany and Italy beyond belief (something I'm not expecting btw) and it would still come in comfortably ahead of IO.

 

Now IO still grossed $500m OS despite all of of this. So my question again, how exactly do you see it missing $500 million OS? It seems to me like we should be discussing its chances at $600m or $700m rather than $500m.

[peludo]

20 hours ago, peludo said:

Dory is not repeating Nemo admissions in Spain, but it could still manage IO-TS3 figures. Said this, I want to see this weekend figure for a better extrapolation. But I think Japan will be, again, the key to reach $500m.

I quote myself to correct me. I did not calculate well yesterday. I do not why I was thinking this still needed 380m to reach 500, but not 280, as it really needs. As some of you are saying, it is hard to think this will not manage $500m OS. In fact, I am correcting my last sentence to say that Japan will be key to reach $600m OS, not 500.

[Quigley]

FD was again underestimated – OS total at $221.8M

[Purple Minion]

DOM also went up! Totals up to Sunday (as per Mojo):

 

Domestic:	$423,047,192	65.6%
+ Foreign:	$221,800,000	34.4%
= Worldwide:	$644,847,192

Edited July 12, 2016 by Purple Minion

[Purple Minion]

Over $650M WW now, $651,022,218 to be precise.

 

Some nice legs (or should I say fins?) for Ms. Dory! Already a 4x multiplier in Argentina, Australia, Bulgaria, Iceland, Portugal and Romania and a whopping 5x in Poland.

[Damianport1]

Dory didnt have great opening weekend in Poland (lost to Conjuring 2) but is holding up very nicely: -22%, -20%, 33%

 

[DeeCee]

It has a shot at USD40m in Australia but not much more then that.