Elessar Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I didn't do any calculations, my gut says if ROTK with a wednesday opening and without gargantuan THU previews drops 30% over a decade ago, TFA will drop 50%. Who's with me? Quote
WrathOfHan Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 (edited) Out, somewhere in the high 30's-low 40's Edited December 20, 2015 by WrathOfHan Quote
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted December 20, 2015 Community Manager Posted December 20, 2015 In. Obviously this is going to fall big. It'll still do over $100 million but barely. Quote
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 In 53%, only because of the massive previews. If it drops less than 50%, beating Avatar is locked. 1 Quote
Elessar Posted December 20, 2015 Author Posted December 20, 2015 It can drop over 50% and still get the 2nd weekend record. This is not about WOM, it's just the nature of box office. 4 Quote
ecstasy Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 Hmmm. Interesting. With Christmas day being on Friday it just may be enough to keep it from going over 50%. Quote
Intensive Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I would be in, but christmas will boost. So, Out. Quote
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I'm thinking the OW actuals will be around $242m. Take out previews and that is $185m. 35% drop from there is $120m which is slightly over 50% drop from $242m. Quote
Dementeleus Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 Touch and go, but yeah, I'm in. 2 Quote
Avatree Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 Think I have to be in. It's the holidays, weekdays are going to be huge next week which will kill some of the engagement at the weekend. 1 Quote
goldenstate5 Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 I want to say in due to the holiday week and weekend... but it is Star Wars. JW was 49%, and the conditions were just familiar enough (start of summer vaca) to say out, but it'll probably match JW with 48 or 49%. Repeat factor will help nudge it in that direction IMO. Quote
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 (edited) 6 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said: I want to say in due to the holiday week and weekend... but it is Star Wars. JW was 49%, and the conditions were just familiar enough (start of summer vaca) to say out, but it'll probably match JW with 48 or 49%. Repeat factor will help nudge it in that direction IMO. JW made $18.5m previews instead of $57m and it also had a 2% Sunday drop due to Father's Day. That $57m preview number is a big problem for sub-50% second weekend even with Christmas boost. If we can get a big jump in actuals this weekend, it will mean better chance for sub-50% drop next weekend. Edited December 20, 2015 by redfirebird2008 1 Quote
