TFA will drop over 50% next weekend

[Elessar]

I didn't do any calculations, my gut says if ROTK with a wednesday opening and without gargantuan THU previews drops 30% over a decade ago, TFA will drop 50%.

 

Who's with me?

[WrathOfHan]

Out, somewhere in the high 30's-low 40's

[Water Bottle]

In.

 

Obviously this is going to fall big. It'll still do over $100 million but barely.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

In 53%, only because of the massive previews. If it drops less than 50%, beating Avatar is locked.

[syntaxerror]

Out. I say 130-140.

[FilmBuff]

In 110 mil 2nd weekend.

[Cochofles]

Hater...troll...

 

 

[Elessar]

It can drop over 50% and still get the 2nd weekend record.

 

This is not about WOM, it's just the nature of box office.

[bapi]

OUT - 46%

[ecstasy]

Hmmm. Interesting. With Christmas day being on Friday it just may be enough to keep it from going over 50%.

[Intensive]

I would be in, but christmas will boost. So, Out.

[redfirebird2008]

I'm thinking the OW actuals will be around $242m. Take out previews and that is $185m. 35% drop from there is $120m which is slightly over 50% drop from $242m. 

[babz06]

IN

 

[Ethan Hunt]

Out

 

48%

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Out

[Plain Old Tele]

Touch and go, but yeah, I'm in. 

[Avatree]

Think I have to be in. It's the holidays, weekdays are going to be huge next week which will kill some of the engagement at the weekend.

[Fancyarcher]

In - 52%

[goldenstate5]

I want to say in due to the holiday week and weekend... but it is Star Wars. JW was 49%, and the conditions were just familiar enough (start of summer vaca) to say out, but it'll probably match JW with 48 or 49%. Repeat factor will help nudge it in that direction IMO.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:

I want to say in due to the holiday week and weekend... but it is Star Wars. JW was 49%, and the conditions were just familiar enough (start of summer vaca) to say out, but it'll probably match JW with 48 or 49%. Repeat factor will help nudge it in that direction IMO.

 

JW made $18.5m previews instead of $57m and it also had a 2% Sunday drop due to Father's Day. 

 

That $57m preview number is a big problem for sub-50% second weekend even with Christmas boost. If we can get a big jump in actuals this weekend, it will mean better chance for sub-50% drop next weekend.