STAR WARS TFA MONDAY ACTUAL - 40.1M, THE FORCE IS STRONGER THAN AVATAR! (pg48)

[Mango]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

 

A 100mil 2nd weekend?, that wouldn't be a good sign, especially on Christmas weekend.

150mil should be the target.

It's purposely low

[stuart360]

Just now, smerfy01 said:

Except the Yuan has lost ~10% of its value vs the dollar compared to 2009/2010 and the eastern empire's economy is amidst a huge drawback on its economy, missing critical numbers and contracting in multiple fields.

Economic times are different now than they were in '09/10 in China. It's not so "roaring 20's" as it was, but more akin to an underperforming economy for the masses.

 

Yay macro economics.

 

Dude Furious 7 just made 400mil, Furious 7.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, smerfy01 said:

Except the Yuan has lost ~10% of its value vs the dollar compared to 2009/2010 and the eastern empire's economy is amidst a huge drawback on its economy, missing critical numbers and contracting in multiple fields.

Economic times are different now than they were in '09/10 in China. It's not so "roaring 20's" as it was, but more akin to an underperforming economy for the masses.

 

Yay macro economics.

 

Even so the Chinese box office market has grown by leaps and bounds since then. $200m in 2009-2010 was friggin insane. Probably equal to $500m or more today.

Edited December 22, 2015 by redfirebird2008

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I'm thinking 130-140m 2nd weekend is the range. It could go higher, but we need to wait until CE so we can have a good guestimate for Christmas Day.

[Hatebox]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

 

Dude Furious 7 just made 400mil, Furious 7.

 

Jeez, no matter how many times I'm reminded of Furious 7's OS take it still surprises me. Whatever SW makes internationally F7's take is bound to be at least as impressive.

[smerfy01]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

 

Dude Furious 7 just made 400mil, Furious 7.

Yes, but when was that? Oh, it was before CNB devalued the Yuan (iirc) 6 times starting in August and their debt bubble popped sinking multiple hedgefunds and (CNY equivalent) 401k's.

Every economic indicator from China beginning Q2 has been a miss, mediocre or poor. So they've been drastically devaluing their currency to stay competitive and bolster their Export ratio. It, so far, hasn't worked and their economy has suffered at the hands of it.

[LinksterAC]

I think that if it gets to $1.15 billion domestic (big IF, I know), Avatar WW is totally in play.  It would be a 60/40 OS to domestic split.

 

Even the most U.S.-centric blockbusters in recent years (The Dark Knight Rises, for example) had around a 60/40 OS to domestic split.

 

Looking at Monday multipliers, this one seems headed for $1 Billion.

 

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

I think it will be in the 50's on both Friday and Saturday

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, smerfy01 said:

Yes, but when was that? Oh, it was before CNB devalued the Yuan (iirc) 6 times starting in August and their debt bubble popped sinking multiple hedgefunds and (CNY equivalent) 401k's.

Every economic indicator from China beginning Q2 has been a miss, mediocre or poor. So they've been drastically devaluing their currency to stay competitive and bolster their Export ratio. It, so far, hasn't worked and their economy has suffered at the hands of it.

 

Gone With The Wind - Great Depression

Star Wars: ANH - Bad economy

Avatar - Great Recession

 

Point being that people tend to run to the movie theaters during a bad economy. It's a good escape and movies are still cheaper entertainment than a lot of other things.

[NCsoft]

39 minutes ago, smerfy01 said:

 

This may surprise you, but some people here actually may think that Avatar is a less enjoyable film and continue to be baffled by its unprecedented success.

If the dollar wasn't so strong, and if the economic shape of the EU/Russia/CIS/SA were better off then yes, TFA would have a great shot at beating Avatar's record.

Put it this way, if Avatar had the same run, right now, it'd gross $2.3 billion. That's how much stronger the dollar is right now.

This doesn't make any sense, the Chinese market has quadrupled in the past 6 years or so. Considering Avatar tripled the highest grossing film ever in China back in 2010, Avatar would have absolutely no problem grossing 500 to 600 Million in China today (if Furious 7 and Monster hunt can get 390 to 400M in China), and that's a conservative estimate, this does not only apply to China, but many other expanding markets as well. If Avatar is released today, under comparable scenarios, its run is worth well beyond 3 Billion worldwide, maybe even higher. 

I mean, congratulations for the success of TFA, but do not try to inflate its worldwide success, it's a monster for sure, but it's not highest grossing film of all time world wide material that Titanic and Avatar was made to be. 

[redfirebird2008]

The one knock against Titanic IMHO is that "Dot Com" bubble economy. While there is plenty of evidence that people love to go to the movies during a crap economy, you still can't help but think a very strong economy makes it much easier for multiple repeat viewings. Titanic had perfect timing. Add in the expanding home theater market and I seriously doubt we will see a phenomenon like that one worldwide again (equal to $4B now and God knows how much in the future).

[Jim Shorts]

Am I the only still bitter Disney didn't bump SW to 248M?  That .9 at the end is such an eye sore.

[LonePirate]

This film might just be a hit after all.

 

Unless I miscounted, only 22 films had opening weekends bigger than TFA's first Monday.

 

I'm guessing TFA easily clears $50M on both Friday and Saturday. I would not be surprised if TFA's second weekend is bigger than HP8's first weekend.

 

The higher these grosses soar, the more likely the film scores an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. That alone would likely add another $30M to its final gross.

[stuart360]

AVATAR would of easily hit 3bil in todays market, its only 211mil behind as it is. With todays international growth, 3.5bil wouldn't of been out of the question.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

This film might just be a hit after all.

 

Unless I miscounted, only 22 films had opening weekends bigger than TFA's first Monday.

 

I'm guessing TFA easily clears $50M on both Friday and Saturday. I would not be surprised if TFA's second weekend is bigger than HP8's first weekend.

 

The higher these grosses soar, the more likely the film scores an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. That alone would likely add another $30M to its final gross.

Do you mean had bigger Fridays? Funny thing: TFA's Monday (depending on where it ends up), would rank #7, #8, or #9 on the all-time Sunday list.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Jayhawk the Hutt

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, RichWS said:

Like PACIFIC RIM? Ooooooh.

 

?

[GiantCALBears]

To give you guys an idea of how insane this Monday # is... $40m Would be the 24th highest OW this year by itself LOL.

[LinksterAC]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

AVATAR would of easily hit 3bil in todays market, its only 211mil behind as it is. With todays international growth, 3.5bil wouldn't of been out of the question.

 

You underestimate the power of the exchange rate.  No way it finds another 750 million DOLLARS.  China is by far the largest expanding market, and it hasn't expanded that much.

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

This film might just be a hit after all.

 

Unless I miscounted, only 22 films had opening weekends bigger than TFA's first Monday.

 

I'm guessing TFA easily clears $50M on both Friday and Saturday. I would not be surprised if TFA's second weekend is bigger than HP8's first weekend.

 

The higher these grosses soar, the more likely the film scores an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. That alone would likely add another $30M to its final gross.

 

 

Might be. 

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

To give you guys an idea of how insane this Monday # is... $40m Would be the 24th highest OW this year by itself LOL.

Taking out this weekend, Monday's gross is the 11th highest single day this year. LOLOL.