Best Picture predictions-2016!

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

It's complicated to make comparissions between The Butler and Hidden Figures. Even more this early, when only 11 reviews are in RT.

 

Anyways, The Butler was close to be nommed and it was buried because of its release date and the great bunch of October/November/December films. The earlier a film opens, the stronger its backlash will surely be.

 

With diversity campaign as a new factor and a December opening, Hidden Figures might very well be nommed.

The Butler wasn't even close to being nominated. It couldn't even manage a random tech nomination, let alone the Supporting Actress nom for Oprah that most were predicting for her.

[CoolioD1]

i think

 

1. la la land

2. manchester by the sea

3. moonlight

4. hell or high water

5. silence

6. arrival

7. hacksaw ridge

8. sully

9. lion

10. fences

 

right now. i dunno. can see them going down to 7 nominees this year.

[stripe]

Nice list Coolio.

 

I would say that we'll see 9-10 nominees. Since 2011, we have never witnessed a year with only 7 nominees and this year it looks like there are many movies with real chances.

 

I am loosing faith in Lion, though. Fences has more chances, IMHO.

 

And I am thinking either Sully or HR will be snubbed. Hidden Figures taking that place.

[CoolioD1]

i've been thinking about it and la la land can win like 10 oscars this year. just sweep like crazy. we haven't seen one of those in a minute.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think

 

1. la la land

2. manchester by the sea

3. moonlight

4. hell or high water

5. silence

6. arrival

7. hacksaw ridge

8. sully

9. lion

10. fences

 

right now. i dunno. can see them going down to 7 nominees this year.

Just swap Silence and Arrival's positions and that's my list (with Nocturnal Animals in 10th if they somehow nominate that much). I'm definitely feeling 7 nominees.

[4815162342]

26 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i've been thinking about it and la la land can win like 10 oscars this year. just sweep like crazy. we haven't seen one of those in a minute.

 

Would be the most since RotK.

 

Slumdog was next with 8.

[WrathOfHan]

13 nominations: La La Land (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Song x2, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing)

10 nominations: Arrival (Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

7 nominations: Hacksaw Ridge (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing), Silence (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design)

6 nominations: Manchester by the Sea (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay), Moonlight (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography)

5 nominations: Hell or High Water (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)

4 nominations: Jackie (Actress, Score, Cinematography, Costume Design), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

3 nominations: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup), Florence Foster Jenkins (Actress, Supporting Actor, Costume Design), Lion (Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay), Moana (Animated, Song x2)

2 nominations: Elle (Actress, Foreign), Fences (Actor, Supporting Actress), Nocturnal Animals (Adapted Screenplay, Score)

 

Wins by film:

 

La La Land (8): Picture, Director, Actress, Song, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing

Arrival (3): Score, Editing, Visual Effects

Manchester by the Sea (2): Actor, Original Screenplay

Elle (1): Foreign

Fences (1): Supporting Actress

Hacksaw Ridge (1): Sound Editing

Hell or High Water (1): Supporting Actor

Silence (1): Adapted Screenplay

Star Trek Beyond (1): Makeup

Zootopia (1): Animated

[filmlover]

I'm kinda thinking La La Land won't take costumes. Aside from Emma's pretty dresses, everything's a bit too contemporary for the Academy's taste.

[stripe]

After Globes and SAG, it's clear there's no consensus besides 4 films. From strong candidates, HR is growing fast and it's close to be a lock. Globes liked Fences and Nocturnal Animals, but there is only room for 5 in Drama. With Oscars this will be different. Silence and Hidden Figures arrived late to the party. Lion chances are better this week than last week. A bit worried with Arrival, but I guess it will have enough supporters.

 

LOCKED

La La Land 

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Hell or High Water

 

STRONG CANDIDATES

Fences

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge 

Silence

 

LIKELY

Lion

Hidden Figures

 

POSSIBLE SPOILERS

Sully

Loving

Jackie

Nocturnal Animals

 

I would say there's going to be 9 films nommed (bolded ones)

[stripe]

LOL 15 days without a new post. It looks like there's a consensus about the films in the conversation.

 

I am really surprised with the lack of buzz around Silence despite its great reviews.

 

An interesting article from awardsdaily

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/12/28/frontrunners-challengers-new-years-edition/

 

Best Picture
The frontrunner – La La Land
The challengers – Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea (all three have buzz coming out of festival season, and have hit with critics and audiences so far. Two of them have ensemble nominations, which make them formidable.

Films that look for a nomination right now:
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Loving
Sully

 

Curiously, they don't mention Hell or High Water. WRONG! Given the precursors, I would replace Loving with HoHW

[Joel M]

Yeah Loving isn't happening. It never became the critic favorite that it was supposed to and it didn't even connect that much with the limited release audience.

[CoolioD1]

silence feels a little done. maybe some guilds will bring it back. can see it missing picture but i can stiiilll see scorsese getting nominated just cos he is who he is.

[SLAM!]

Unlike some other companies, Paramount has four major Oscar players in the pool; that's Fences, Arrival, Silence, and Florence Foster Jenkins. Surely some of their films are falling by the wayside in favor of other films, and if I had to guess, the runaway box office success of Fences, the approachable vibe of Silence, and the somewhat unexpected success at the Golden Globes for Florence Foster Jenkins are all eating into Silence's chances a little bit. Then again, Silence may have qualities that eat into Paramount's other films as well.

 

On a related note, I get why A24 has seemingly chosen to emphasize Moonlight in their campaigning efforts and leave their other films, such as 20th Century Women, with substantially less campaigning, but it's a shame nonetheless.

[WrathOfHan]

Picture:

 

1. La La Land

2. Manchester

3. Moonlight

4. Hell or High Water

5. Arrival

6. Hacksaw Ridge

 

Director:

 

1. Chazelle

2. Lonergan

3. Jenkins

4. Villeneuve 

5. Mackenzie 

 

 

[The Panda]

My new Oscar Nom/wins predicts

 

Best Picture

1.La La Land

2.Manchester by the Sea

3.Moonlight

4.Hell or High Water

5.Arrival

6.Fences

7.Hacksaw Ridge

 

(In danger of missing)

8.Silence

9.Hidden Figures

ALT - Jackie, Lion

 

Director

1.Damien Chazelle - La La Land

2.Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

3.Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

4.Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Martin Scorsese - Silence

ALT - David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

 

Actress

1.Emma Stone - La La Land

2.Natalie Portman - Jackie

3.Ruth Negga - Loving

4.Amy Adams - Arrival

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Taraj B. Henson - Hidden Figures

 

Actor

1.Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

2.Denzel Washington - Fences

3.Ryan Gosling - La La Land

4.Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Chris Pine - Hell or High Water

 

Supporting Actress

1.Viola Davis - Fences

2.Naomie Harris - Moonlight

3.Michelle Wiliiams - Manchester by the Sea

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

5.Nicole Kidman - Lion

 

Supporting Actor

1.Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

2.Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water

3.Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Dev Patel - Lion

5.Issei Ogata - Silence

 

Adapted Screenplay

1.Moonlight

2.Fences

3.Arrival

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Silence

5.Hidden Figures

 

Original Screenplay

1.Hell or High Water

2.Manchester by the Sea

3.La La Land

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Captain Fantastic

5.Jackie

 

Cinematography

1.La La Land

2.Moonlight

3.Arrival

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Silence

5.Hacksaw Ridge

 

Costume Design

1.La La Land

2.Jackie

3.Silence

4.Florence Foster Jenkins

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Hidden Figures

 

Editing

1.La La Land

2.Moonlight

3.Arrival

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Hacksaw Ridge

5.Silence

 

Makeup/Hairstyling

1.Florence Foster Jenkins

 

(In danger of missing)

2.Star Trek Beyond

3.Deadpool

 

Production Design

1.La La Land

 

(In danger of missing)

2.Arrival

3.Jackie

4.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

5.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

Score

1. La La Land

2.Moonlight

 

(In danger of missing)

3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4.The BFG

5.Hell or High Water

 

Original Song

1. City of Stars - La La Land

2.How Far I'll Go - Moana

3.Audition (Fools Who Dream) - La La Land

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Runnin' - Hidden Figures

5.Drive it Like You Stole It - Sing Street

 

Sound Editing

1.Hacksaw Ridge

2.La La Land

3.Arrival

4.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Deepwater Horizon

 

Sound Mixing

1.La La Land

2.Hacksaw Ridge

3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Arrival

5.The Jungle Book

 

Visual Effects

1.Arrival

2.The Jungle Book

3.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4.Doctor Strange

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Deepwater Horizon

 

Animated Feature

1.Zootopia

2.Kubo and the Two Strings

3.Moana

4.The Red Turtle

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Your Name

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nom Count

La La Land - 14 (BP, BD, BAs, BA, OS, C, CD, FE, PD, OSc, OSo 2x, SE, SM)

Arrival - 10 (BP, BD, BAs, AS, C, FE, PD, SE, SM, VFX)

Moonlight - 8 (BP, BD, SAs , SA, AS, C, FE, OSc)

Silence - 7 (BP, BD, SA, AS, C, CD, FE)

Manchester by the Sea - 6 (BP, BD, BA, SAs, SA, OS)

Hacksaw Ridge - 6 (BP, BA, C, FE, SE, SM)

Hidden Figures - 6 (BP, BAs, SAs, AS, CD, OSo)

Hell or High Water - 5 (BP, BA, SA, OS, OSc)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 5 (PD, OSc , SE, SM, VFX)

Fences - 4 (BP, BA, SAs, AS)

Jackie - 4 (BAs, OS, CD, PD)

Lion - 2 (SAs , SA)

Florence Foster Jenkins - 2 (CD, MHS)

The Jungle Book - 2 (SM, VFX)

Moana - 2 (OSo, AF)

Deepwater Horizon - 2 (SE, VFX)

Loving - 1 (BAs)

Captain Fantastic - 1 (OS)

Deadpool - 1 (MHS)

Star Trek Beyond - 1 (MHS)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 1 (PD)

The BFG - 1 (OSc)

Sing Street - 1 (OSo)

Doctor Strange - 1 (VFX)

Zootopia - 1 (AF)

Kubo and the Two Strings - 1 (AF)

The Red Turtle - 1 (AF)

Your Name - 1 (AF)

 

 

Win Count

La La Land - 10 (BP, BD, BAs, C, CD, FE, PD, OSc, OSo, SM)

Moonlight - 2 (SA, AS)

Manchester by the Sea - 1 (BA)

Fences - 1 (SAs)

Hell or High Water - 1 (OS)

Florence Foster Jenkins - 1 (MHS)

Hacksaw Ridge - 1 (SE)

Arrival - 1 (VFX)

Zootopia - 1 (AF)

Edited January 1, 2017 by La La Panda

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, La La Panda said:

 

(In danger of missing)

5.Chris Pine - Hell or High Water

 

That's a good choice.

 

[filmlover]

I saw Hidden Figures tonight and I really see it getting a Best Picture nomination ala The Blind Side and The Help. This is the kind of crowdpleasing catnip the Academy would go for.

[BirdMan]

13 hours ago, La La Panda said:

 

Original Screenplay

1.Hell or High Water

2.Manchester by the Sea

3.La La Land

 

(In danger of missing)

4.Captain Fantastic

5.Jackie

Buddy there is no way in hell that Manchester by the Sea isn't winning this 

[stripe]

16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Picture:

 

1. La La Land

2. Manchester

3. Moonlight

4. Hell or High Water

5. Arrival

6. Hacksaw Ridge

 

Director:

 

1. Chazelle

2. Lonergan

3. Jenkins

4. Villeneuve 

5. Mackenzie 

 

 

 

Only six nominees? I think it's more probable to see 10 films nommed than 6.

 

Lion, Fences, Hidden Figures and Silence are so close to a nomination, IMHO. Maybe one of these fail, but all of them?

 

I agree though that the six you're picking are the six top contenders.

[CoolioD1]

i still say la la land is in with a shot at a screenplay win. don't think being a musical counts it out like everyone else seems to.