Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[MovieMan89]

This could also very well be the last chance for a new movie to ever break into the adjusted top ten, so really hoping. 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, setna said:

 

For 950-960 will need weekly drops of 20 % maximum, i see it really difficult, but i´ll like it for sure...

 

With a +40% drop on a Holiday w/e where it barely lost any theaters I don't see that happening either.

[MovieMan89]

The Revenant's huge breakout definitely cut into legs a bit. Avatar didn't have a hit like The Revenant to deal with. All it had all January was Book of Eli, which wasn't even quite on RA2's level. If January was as barren this year as back in 2010, 1b may have still happened. Who knows. 

[filmlover]

Great weekend for most of the Oscar films, in particular The Revenant and Room. The latter reached the highest number of theaters it's hit to date by almost 100 and saw its biggest theater average since its sixth weekend. Hopefully people continue to discover it with a push into wide release by A24 soon.

[The Futurist]

Force Awakens was supposed to have Abadah multiplier and do 3,5B domestic.

 

Lukewarm performance overall for Rey & Finn, it did not do as expected.

 

 

[Daxtreme]

I think Disney is lowballing the sunday drop, which will also result in a bigger monday as a side-effect. 

 

I think Sunday is looking at ~8.2, and then monday 6.2M for 1 additional million over the 4-day.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, filmlover said:

Great weekend for most of the Oscar films, in particular The Revenant and Room. The latter reached the highest number of theaters it's hit to date by almost 100 and saw its biggest theater average since its sixth weekend. Hopefully people continue to discover it with a push into wide release by A24 soon.

Yeah, really stoked about Room's showing! Would be awesome if it could somehow catch fire with WOM now that more people will start to see it and do really well in a wide release. 

[Elessar]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Revenant's huge breakout definitely cut into legs a bit. Avatar didn't have a hit like The Revenant to deal with. All it had all January was Book of Eli, which wasn't even quite on RA2's level. If January was as barren this year as back in 2010, 1b may have still happened. Who knows. 

 

TFA had no competition in December, Avatar had to deal with Sherlock and Alvin.

[Fake]

With every passing weekend, my projections go down.

 

Now I have it at 915M/1100M = 2015M finish.

 

I really hope it doesn't go down any further!

[baumer]

@setna 3.53

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

TFA had no competition in December, Avatar had to deal with Sherlock and Alvin.

My bad, I must have forgotten how the $350m+ combined gross through the new year of Daddy's Home, Sisters, Concussion, Hateful 8, Alvin, Joy, and Point Break failed to provide any competition for TFA. Silly me. 

[JohnnY]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Revenant's huge breakout definitely cut into legs a bit. Avatar didn't have a hit like The Revenant to deal with. All it had all January was Book of Eli, which wasn't even quite on RA2's level. If January was as barren this year as back in 2010, 1b may have still happened. Who knows. 

 

It is a breakout, but not huge enough to have an impact on TFA. It's a bloody r-rated movie about vengeance, it's not aimed at general audience.

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

My bad, I must have forgotten how the $350m+ combined gross through the new year of Daddy's Home, Sisters, Concussion, Hateful 8, Alvin, Joy, and Point Break failed to provide any competition for TFA. Silly me. 

 

Apology accepted.

[MovieMan89]

TFA appeals to everyone, and Revenant broke out huge with the GA to do what it's doing. So any argument that it had no effect on TFA's legs this month is extremely laughable. 

[Fake]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Revenant's huge breakout definitely cut into legs a bit. Avatar didn't have a hit like The Revenant to deal with. All it had all January was Book of Eli, which wasn't even quite on RA2's level. If January was as barren this year as back in 2010, 1b may have still happened. Who knows. 

 

FUCK YOU LEO!!!!!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

 

Apology accepted.

But you do realize though that the 7 new releases against TFA grossed more through the New Year than the 3 new releases against Avatar did right? Doesn't matter that there were more of them, they provided an even bigger threat in gross than Avatar's competition.

[The Panda]

So, what's the upper cap for the Revenant looking like?  It's bound to have good legs through Oscar Sunday, and so far it looks like the GA is digging it.

 

High 180s - 200m finish?

[LinksterAC]

1 hour ago, Infernus said:

 

Definitely not. Not even close. TFA's 1B OS is nowhere close to Avatar's 2B in any way no matter what factors you try to use. ER is bad but lots of markets have expanded and 6 year's inflation further reduces that disadvantage. So, no way TFA is even close to Avatar OS in any way just because of ER. Its not even the biggest movie of its own year OS. Avatar is the 2nd biggest of all time. In fact when you factor in market expansions Avatar's china gross alone would increase to near 1200m. I am not saying it would have made that but since we are talking about pure number conversions that will be the number we'll have to take. That alone beats TFA's total OS and we haven't even come to the rest of Asia or Latin America where major market expansions take have taken place. So yeah - No.

 

I said WW, not OS.

 

And take it to anther thread.

[Joel M]

 

 

[MovieMan89]

The Avatar fanboys really are starting to get on my nerves. You lay out the facts, and they still choose to ignore them. Kal's influence is rubbing off way too much here.