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Best actress-2016 predictions

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First GoldDerby expert predictions for Best Actress nominations:

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2017/actress/sort/recent/

 

Viola Davis, Fences - 17
Ruth Negga, Loving - 16
Emma Stone, La La Land - 12
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins - 12
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women - 7

 

Isabelle Huppert, Elle - 6
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train - 5
Amy Adams, Arrival - 4
Jennifer Connelly, American Pastoral - 3
Alicia Vikander, The Light Between Oceans - 3
Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals - 2
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane - 2
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship - 1
Marion Cotillard, Allied - 1
Sally Field, Hello, My Name is Doris - 1
Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers - 1
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky - 1
Rachel Weisz, Denial - 1

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On ‎9‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 10:02 AM, filmlover said:

The reviews for Jackie are otherworldly. I hope someone good picks it up, in particular Fox Searchlight (especially since Birth of a Nation is going down in flames).

...and it happened.

 

Current predictions:

 

Amy Adams, Arrival

Viola Davis, Fences

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

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I think we have already 2 locks.

 

Emma Stone: She the lead in a movie that could be a big contender for many awards. She already won in Venice and it's a foregone conclusion that she'll win the comedy/musical globe.

Natalie Portman: Got raves for the performance, plays a beloved icon, the movie is also well reviewed and Portman is very well respected within the industry. She's barely 35 but she's been in the industry for 2 full decades. She's the child actress that made it like Jodie Foster.

 

Adams and Viola also look very strong possibilities.

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Last time an actress got these kind of raves, her name was Cate Blanchett & the movie was Blue Jasmine and it led to Oscar numero dos.

 

Also, last time this happened :

 

bc9946f2436aec4c2d0ed0dfa4c6dd39.jpg 

 

In the immortal words of James Cameron, said by Bill Paxton :

 

"Game Over, Man."

Edited by The Futurist
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The character is iconic, the part seems to be UBER showy, it s basicaly 90 minutes of Portman playing Jackie grieving in a 95 minutes film and there are

 

Spoiler

Lubezki super long shots with no cuts that scream ACTING !!! at your face for 15 minutes 

 

I strongly believe this race is over despite

 

#Oscarsowhite

 

&

 

Natalie having won just 6 years ago

 

&

 

Amy

 

&

 

Emma

Edited by The Futurist
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Another thing Portman has going for her is that the movie is unexpectedly getting a lot of "hip" buzz. Many of the critics who are usually grinding their axes everytime a prestige biography comes out are behind it. I think there's two reasons for that outside of the movie's strenghts. First Pablo Lorrain is an outsider to the industry and to US in general and his approach is different than the "this happened, and then this happened" typical prestige biography. And second is the fact that the movie seem to came out of nowhere in Venice. Usually when there's a project like this, a famous actress playing an iconic person, it is listed in various "what's gonna win next year" articles even before shooting starts. How did that project managed to fly under the oscar experts radar and then poped out of nowhere and surprised everyone is kind of weird. It definately helped the movie though.

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On 9/15/2016 at 0:01 PM, Joel M said:

Another thing Portman has going for her is that the movie is unexpectedly getting a lot of "hip" buzz. Many of the critics who are usually grinding their axes everytime a prestige biography comes out are behind it. I think there's two reasons for that outside of the movie's strenghts. First Pablo Lorrain is an outsider to the industry and to US in general and his approach is different than the "this happened, and then this happened" typical prestige biography. And second is the fact that the movie seem to came out of nowhere in Venice. Usually when there's a project like this, a famous actress playing an iconic person, it is listed in various "what's gonna win next year" articles even before shooting starts. How did that project managed to fly under the oscar experts radar and then poped out of nowhere and surprised everyone is kind of weird. It definately helped the movie though.

Thank Diana (flop) and Grace of Monaco (premiered on Lifetime), those had high expectations that did not pan out, and Jackie O is a similar sort of figure. And there have been so many TV movies/miniseries about the Kennedys that the topic didn't feel unexplored, even if there haven't been a lot of theatrical movies centered around Jacqueline Kennedy before.

 

If Natalie hadn't won already, Best Actress would be completely over and maybe it still is... Sure, the pundits have a narrative they want to spin and award watchers stan for their faves, but does AMPAS really care all that deeply whether Viola Davis wins Best Actress now, or think of Adams as overdue? As for #OscarsSoWhite, I mean, the Oscar voters are the reason it happened. Even if they do feel guilted into voting for a non-white acting winner this time, who says they won't do that in another category? Some of them will just vote for Denzel, Dev Patel or Naomie Harris, and pat themselves on the back for caring about diversity in Hollywood.

 

Natalie's raves are just astonishing really, some people worry that AMPAS will be like "needs moar JFK" and be cool on it for that reason, but this is Jackie Kennedy, you know? Not Carol. It's always possible the reaction will be different outside of the film festival bubble, but if it stays at this level... I suppose an acting masterclass is beatable, as is playing an iconic, historical figure or having the baitiest role on paper, but an acting masterclass of an iconic historical figure in the baitiest, most tragic role of the nominees, seems like the Oscar winner over "luminous in a musical" or "acting masterclass of a fictional character".

 

Of course, it all has to play out and you never know what will happen. I'm just glad Best Actress seems more competitive than Best Actor for once!

Edited by BoxOfficeChica
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On 9/14/2016 at 11:47 AM, The Futurist said:

Last time an actress got these kind of raves, her name was Cate Blanchett & the movie was Blue Jasmine and it led to Oscar numero dos.

 

Also, last time this happened :

 

bc9946f2436aec4c2d0ed0dfa4c6dd39.jpg 

 

In the immortal words of James Cameron, said by Bill Paxton :

 

"Game Over, Man."

 

Yup, Natalie is coming for that Oscar. 

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On 14/09/2016 at 0:02 PM, The Futurist said:

The character is iconic, the part seems to be UBER showy, it s basicaly 90 minutes of Portman playing Jackie grieving in a 95 minutes film and there are

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I strongly believe this race is over despite

 

#Oscarsowhite

 

&

 

Natalie having won just 6 years ago

 

&

 

Amy

 

&

 

Emma

 

 

Can confirm all of this. Race is over. Maybe 5% Chance Viola blows it out of the water and manages to get a narrative going. Also, I think despite Oscars So White and Viola never winning and whatnot, I think that Portman has such a strong narrative with this dumpster fire of an election, America's obsession with the Kennedys, the parallels of Hillary becoming the first female President and Jackie basically being the first modern First Lady. I think this could become a snowball and be too good for the Academy to pass up no matter what else comes along. 

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