Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Gavin Feng]

Dark Phoenix is the last case for the original Fox marketing team. After that, Disney will control those Fox titles.

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

What’s Disney gotta do with presales? They didn't make the movie or market it, they only got it like 2 months ago in their hands. How is it their fault if people couldnt care less about this franchise anymore and dont want to buy tickets? Gavin clearly mentioned in the China thread that Disney is not handling marketing in china for this. 

I don't blame Disney if this movie flops worldwide. Just like what I said, they don't care. They don't care if people see it or not. They'll prefer their own version of X-Men in the MCU. They just want Dark Phoenix to get done and over with.

[Justin4125]

33 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I don't blame Disney if this movie flops worldwide. Just like what I said, they don't care. They don't care if people see it or not. They'll prefer their own version of X-Men in the MCU. They just want Dark Phoenix to get done and over with.

I mean, they clearly do care. They wouldnt want to tarnish the Xmen brand and on top of that they have a financial interest in the film. Disney absolutely cares, its in their interest to care

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, UserHN said:

I don't blame Disney if this movie flops worldwide. Just like what I said, they don't care. They don't care if people see it or not. They'll prefer their own version of X-Men in the MCU. They just want Dark Phoenix to get done and over with.

As a public company that is irresponsible to dump big budget movie. Their job is to maximize revenue.  They can reboot this franchise in different ways without dumping a movie.

 

As an example Bond movie Die Another Day was the biggest  Brosnan movie which was followed by completely different Casino Royale.

 

Introducing few characters in another MCU character movie could be a way to bootstrap into MCU world.

 

[ZeeSoh]

22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (3 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.36m

OD - 4.71m (+23.94%)(58072 shows)

Fri - 2.31m

Sat - 1.39m

Sun - 1.11m

 

PS is just slightly ahead of Shazam, the only other SH movie with an OD PS close enough would be Thor Ragnarok from 2017. Every SH movie since then have had much bigger PS 3 days out. Even Detective Pikachu (6.83m), Bumblebee (7.75m) and Alita (8.88m) had much higher OD PS at this point. Direct comparison like the table with Godzilla is not possible due to the 4 day OW. If ratings are not good even the 4 day OW might be in the 40's region. If ratings are decent enough then a 4 day OW in the 50's seems possible. 

Dark Phoenix (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.72m

OD - 6.89m (+46.28%)(71158 shows)

Fri - 3.28m

Sat - 1.63m

Sun - 1.33m

 

Good increase today but the numbers were low to begin with. It has a decent amount of show times too at this point despite the crowded weekend however it lags behind recent openers like Godzilla and pretty much every SH movie since 2018. Still gonna stick with my predictions for now. 

 

@marveldcfox Kaabil opens on Wednesday with midnight previews on Tuesday. So far it has done 408k Yuan in presales for the OD. It also has only 8k shows assigned so far which is understandable considering the competition. PS and Show count is too small to indicate any big or even decent OW, so like pretty much every Bollywood movie it will have to depend on reception and WoM. 

 

Currently it has 7.2 on Douban which is not that great. It is far behind Dangal (9.0), Bajrangi Bhaijaan (8.5), Andhadhun (8.3), Hindi Medium (7.9), Secret Superstar (7.7). It is early and the ratings will change once the general audience sees it, but I doubt it will break out like these ones did. The movie itself is not that good. But still Mom with its 6.7 rating on Douban managed to make 100cr (16m) in China so who knows maybe Kaabil will get lucky as well. 

[marveldcfox]

46 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.72m

OD - 6.89m (+46.28%)(71158 shows)

Fri - 3.28m

Sat - 1.63m

Sun - 1.33m

 

Good increase today but the numbers were low to begin with. It has a decent amount of show times too at this point despite the crowded weekend however it lags behind recent openers like Godzilla and pretty much every SH movie since 2018. Still gonna stick with my predictions for now. 

 

@marveldcfox Kaabil opens on Wednesday with midnight previews on Tuesday. So far it has done 408k Yuan in presales for the OD. It also has only 8k shows assigned so far which is understandable considering the competition. PS and Show count is too small to indicate any big or even decent OW, so like pretty much every Bollywood movie it will have to depend on reception and WoM. 

 

Currently it has 7.2 on Douban which is not that great. It is far behind Dangal (9.0), Bajrangi Bhaijaan (8.5), Andhadhun (8.3), Hindi Medium (7.9), Secret Superstar (7.7). It is early and the ratings will change once the general audience sees it, but I doubt it will break out like these ones did. The movie itself is not that good. But still Mom with its 6.7 rating on Douban managed to make 100cr (16m) in China so who knows maybe Kaabil will get lucky as well. 

That sucks. I guess the movie is too grim and dark for the chinese audience. So basically it will flop and then Kangana and her sister will start their nonsense.

[Gavin Feng]

Local YA title Better Days may beat Far From Home before The Eight Hundred come to July 5th. 

[MaxAggressor]

 

[keysersoze123]

it feels weird posting tweets of @Gavin Feng who is active on this forum 🙂

 

Anyway Dark Phoenix OD PS is around 10m. So it finishing around 20m at best. It needs 5x multi to hit 100m OD and then have a good run over the weekend to hit 500m. But even if it does not have that good a run 450m OW is possible. As Gavin put it, its very GA friendly. Apocalypse(which was a meh movie) played much better than what was predicted before release. Potus kept posting its missing 500m yuan and it ended up more than 800m despite facing Warcraft on its 6th day. Now Zilla is dropping fast and I dont think there are any big movies opening till end of the month. DP could gross as much as 600-700m range.

 

Of course if they hate it all bets are off.

 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/28/2016 at 5:25 AM, Olive said:

Decline from DOFP is locked

 

On 5/27/2016 at 8:13 PM, Olive said:

X-men Midnights only 50% of CW at the same point.

 

On 5/31/2016 at 6:48 PM, POTUS 2020 said:

Cbo has 14m for XMA and 35m for WC. They are usually a bit higher. Not sure what is going with Maoyan. That jump from 20m to 27m seemed a bit big. Maybe its correct now.

 

XMA PS is now 40% CA3 on both Maoyan and CBO. That would be a 250m weekend. With WC coming on Wed it may not clear 400m/ $60m

 

few posts before Apocalpyse OW.

Edited June 4, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Gavin Feng]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

it feels weird posting tweets of @Gavin Feng who is active on this forum 🙂

 

Anyway Dark Phoenix OD PS is around 10m. So it finishing around 20m at best. It needs 5x multi to hit 100m OD and then have a good run over the weekend to hit 500m. But even if it does not have that good a run 450m OW is possible. As Gavin put it, its very GA friendly. Apocalypse(which was a meh movie) played much better than what was predicted before release. Potus kept posting its missing 500m yuan and it ended up more than 800m despite facing Warcraft on its 6th day. Now Zilla is dropping fast and I dont think there are any big movies opening till end of the month. DP could gross as much as 600-700m range.

 

Of course if they hate it all bets are off.

 

My expectation is about ¥35M total pre-sale finally(including midnights). Mostly total pre-sale/opening week=15% for superhero fims. MCU solo has been reaching around 18% recently. AQM is the lowest with 10%. So it means ¥350M might be the max even if the WOM is incredible like 9.4/10 on Maoyan.

[ZeeSoh]

On 6/4/2019 at 1:04 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (2 days out)

 

Midnight - 1.72m

OD - 6.89m (+46.28%)(71158 shows)

Fri - 3.28m

Sat - 1.63m

Sun - 1.33m

 

Good increase today but the numbers were low to begin with. It has a decent amount of show times too at this point despite the crowded weekend however it lags behind recent openers like Godzilla and pretty much every SH movie since 2018. Still gonna stick with my predictions for now. 

Dark Phoenix (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 2.37m

OD - 10.01m (+45.28%)(101952 shows)

Fri - 4.84m

Sat - 2.16m

Sun - 1.53m

 

Final PS will be around 20m, which would be the lowest for a SH movie since 2016 at least and lower than recent mid sized movies like Godzilla 2, Bumblebee, Detective Pikachu and Alita. Although Dark Phoenix wont have Thursday as its final PS day like these movies had. Still gonna stick with an Ow in the 40's region unless ratings are good. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Does anyone know what Captain Marvel's want to see score on Maoyan was before release?

[keysersoze123]

Look to end up around 22m. Mediocre but this has been a train wreck. I wonder RT has an impact in China?

[ZeeSoh]

On 6/5/2019 at 1:47 AM, ZeeSoh said:

Dark Phoenix (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 2.37m

OD - 10.01m (+45.28%)(101952 shows)

Fri - 4.84m

Sat - 2.16m

Sun - 1.53m

 

Final PS will be around 20m, which would be the lowest for a SH movie since 2016 at least and lower than recent mid sized movies like Godzilla 2, Bumblebee, Detective Pikachu and Alita. Although Dark Phoenix wont have Thursday as its final PS day like these movies had. Still gonna stick with an Ow in the 40's region unless ratings are good. 

Dark Phoenix (Final)

 

OD - 22.98m (+129.6%)(132626 shows)

Fri - 8.85m

Sat - 3.25m

Sun - 1.86m

 

Very good increase today, second highest for a SH movie on the last day after Shazam. But like Shazam, the jump was from a very low place so the final PS is not any good. It is the lowest OD PS for any SH movie I have tracked and lower than even recent mid sized movies like Godzilla 2, Detective Pikachu, Alita, Bumblebee, MI6, Fantastic Beasts 2, etc. However, as I mentioned yesterday, direct comparison isnt fair as Dark Phoenix ended its PS run on a Wednesday vs Thursday for the other movies.

 

PS for the other days are also lower than every SH movie as well as the ones I mentioned above except Shazam. It is likely Dark Phoenix wont perform as bad as Shazam did on its OW. Show count is also lower than most recent SH movies and others like Godzilla 2. Thanks mostly due to a lot of competition around it. 

 

Midnight gross is also not that bad, but again except Shazam, one would have to go all the way back to Thor Ragnarok to find a lower midnight gross for a SH movie. 

 

Overall I had said I dont see this doing more than 50m over the 4 day OW and I will stick with it. I dont think it will collapse to below 40m for the 4 day. But I wont give any particular tight range due to the 4 day and holiday weekend but currently thinking somewhere in the 40's for the 4 day OW. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[Gavin Feng]

Better Days may move to Jun.21. Good for Far From Home, worse for animations...

[VanillaSkies]

14 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Better Days may move to Jun.21. Good for Far From Home, worse for animations...

When do Far From Home presales start?

[Gavin Feng]

current total pre-sale of animations

 

Spirited Away - ¥245K

 

Toy Story 4 - ¥6695K...Oh wait, it’s just ¥6695.

 

So SA is 36.6 times of TY4.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

current total pre-sale of animations

 

Spirited Away - ¥245K

 

Toy Story 4 - ¥6695K...Oh wait, it’s just ¥6695.

 

So SA is 36.6 times of TY4.

when far from home pre sales will start ?

[Gavin Feng]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

when far from home pre sales will start ?

Probably next week