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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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5 hours ago, a2k said:

So $200 possible for FFH. If it opens to $125 needs 1.6x to hit that mark.

Even if it misses, $600 from Dom and China combined is likely.

Easily $600 M combined from china & domestic ..

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sunny Max said:

Easily $600 M combined from china & domestic ..

that would take it past $1b even if os-ch stays flat from smh, which it really won't.

so we are potentially looking at $1.1-1.2b ww.

Edited by a2k

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11 minutes ago, a2k said:

that would take it past $1b even if os-ch stays flat from smh, which it really won't.

so we are potentially looking at $1.1-1.2b ww.

yeah AEG historic success + connection will help more ... definitely we are looking at $1.1 to $1.2 B ..

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5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Tbh my memory is pretty good, tests are some of my favorite parts of school. Especially objective areas like math and hard sciences. Hate long readings, essays, research projects, etc about subjects I have no personal interest in. 

The schooling system in the US allows a person to study whatever they want to be: a librarian, an artist, a celloist, a social worker, a mechanics, a journalist, and so on. Schools in Asia tend to focus more on science, math, engineering, and business. The focus is just different culturally.

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7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

wish I was born in US. movies make summer and schooling sound great fun in states.

Summer is fun, schooling not so much. Also seems like FFH may come a bit below the projectile today if I'm not wrong?

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Show count just up to 50581 and PS to just under 5m. It will not maintain the pace that Charlie predicted in his google sheet. Will need to wait another day or 2 before we can judge where it will end. @POTUS 2020 what do you think?

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Spider-man: Far From Home 8 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥1.95mn (6k shows) (+¥0.6mn)

Friday: ¥5.3mn (51k shows) (+¥1.8mn)

Saturday: ¥2.5mn (29k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

Sunday: ¥1.7mn (24k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

 

Total: ¥11.5mn or $1.7mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

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4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Spider-man: Far From Home 8 days Out

 

Midnight: ¥1.95mn (6k shows) (+¥0.6mn)

Friday: ¥5.3mn (51k shows) (+¥1.8mn)

Saturday: ¥2.5mn (29k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

Sunday: ¥1.7mn (24k shows) (+¥0.55mn)

 

Total: ¥11.5mn or $1.7mn

 

http://bit.ly/ChinaPreSale  

good ?

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Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah very good. Shall open around ¥225mn.

could open with 90 in china ?

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17 minutes ago, john2000 said:

could open with 90 in china ?

If OD ends up being 225 million (high variance this far out), then 100+ should be locked

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Higher than Venom.

 

Spoiler

But recent MCU films are too heavy on pre-sale: Total pre-sale ≈ OW*0.2(most are 10-15%)

 

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Any chance that Endgame will rerelease in China with the additional post credit scenes that's coming out 6/28?

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2 minutes ago, jxhide said:

Any chance that Endgame will rerelease in China with the additional post credit scenes that's coming out 6/28?

If Trump kneel down to Beijing.

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There has to be some new tech(like 3d re-release of old 2d movies) for it to be treated as a new film. Otherwise no way we will see Endgame again in theaters in china.

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Spiderman: Far From Home (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 2.00m

OD - 5.21 (+49.28%) (50965 shows)

Sat - 2.51m

Sun - 1.71m

 

Good showing by FFH so far. But let's start with its day 1 performance. Despite opening to a strong 1.03m on its first day of PS, it was lower than the first day of PS of Captain Marvel, Aquaman and Black Panther despite similar show times allocations. It was slightly ahead of Venom's first full PS day and a little bit more ahead of Ant Man 2. As for other recent SH movies like Shazam and DP, they are no where even close enough. 

IF we compare to recent non SH movies, it was slightly ahead of Bumblebee, Godzilla 2 and MI6 but these had way fewer show time allocations. Before we panic however, despite the relatively slow start, FFH has gained a huge lead over these non SH comparisons not just in terms of PS gross but also in terms of show allocations. 

 

Till its 3rd day of PS, FFH is trending better than BP and Aquaman and on par with Venom, but it is behind Captain Marvel. In raw numbers term it is behind CM and Aquaman. But it will overtake Aquaman soon enough (Aquaman started its run late hence had a big first few days and then fizzled out). One good thing is that it is ahead of pretty much all of these in terms of show times. 

 

In fact, in terms of show count its ahead of even the biggies like JW2 (which didnt have comparable show allocations till its 13th day of PS run) and even Infinity War (7th day). Now this isnt to say that FFH is gonna be bigger than these movies. We have seen higher and higher show counts for movies recently and with the BO being somewhat slow, no wonder theatres are eager to get on the train as quickly as possible. 

 

Too early to tell but for now I'd say a PS in the range of Venom and CM is likely. Where it goes from there would depend entirely on how good the movie is. Venom for example had a PS multiplier of 12.76 for the OW whereas CM was at 8.14. I hope the PSm is closer to Venom than CM. 90+ is possible if ratings are good but gonna hold off on the 100+ talk for now.

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¥2.8mn pre-sales for Toy Story 4, 2 days out. That's 90% of Incredibles 2, which finaled at ¥7mn for ¥30.4mn OD.

 

I expect ¥6mn final pre-sale and ¥35-37mn OD as Maoyan multiples are off. May be even ¥40mn OD. That could be anywhere from ¥165-¥225mn depending on word of mouth.

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3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Spiderman: Far From Home (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 2.00m

OD - 5.21 (+49.28%) (50965 shows)

Sat - 2.51m

Sun - 1.71m

 

Good showing by FFH so far. But let's start with its day 1 performance. Despite opening to a strong 1.03m on its first day of PS, it was lower than the first day of PS of Captain Marvel, Aquaman and Black Panther despite similar show times allocations. It was slightly ahead of Venom's first full PS day and a little bit more ahead of Ant Man 2. As for other recent SH movies like Shazam and DP, they are no where even close enough. 

IF we compare to recent non SH movies, it was slightly ahead of Bumblebee, Godzilla 2 and MI6 but these had way fewer show time allocations. Before we panic however, despite the relatively slow start, FFH has gained a huge lead over these non SH comparisons not just in terms of PS gross but also in terms of show allocations. 

 

Till its 3rd day of PS, FFH is trending better than BP and Aquaman and on par with Venom, but it is behind Captain Marvel. In raw numbers term it is behind CM and Aquaman. But it will overtake Aquaman soon enough (Aquaman started its run late hence had a big first few days and then fizzled out). One good thing is that it is ahead of pretty much all of these in terms of show times. 

 

In fact, in terms of show count its ahead of even the biggies like JW2 (which didnt have comparable show allocations till its 13th day of PS run) and even Infinity War (7th day). Now this isnt to say that FFH is gonna be bigger than these movies. We have seen higher and higher show counts for movies recently and with the BO being somewhat slow, no wonder theatres are eager to get on the train as quickly as possible. 

 

Too early to tell but for now I'd say a PS in the range of Venom and CM is likely. Where it goes from there would depend entirely on how good the movie is. Venom for example had a PS multiplier of 12.76 for the OW whereas CM was at 8.14. I hope the PSm is closer to Venom than CM. 90+ is possible if ratings are good but gonna hold off on the 100+ talk for now.

Awesome. Great recap as usual. Please track it until release 🙂

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Headed to around 7.3-7.5 today based on movement so far. 40-45% increase, right in line with Charlie’s expectation for the day and pretty solid.   

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