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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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1.701m on Maoyan WTS @ 11am CST - April 18 

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Posted (edited)

PTA saturation is high for MN.  I see no reason for the same for OD and the full weekend.

$260+ Maybe $300m.  I'm keeping the PSm low. got burned on FF8 and IW with lower than expected PSm. That leaves room for an upside surprise

EG has about the same shows and PS at 6 days out as IW at 1 day out

  EG             IW          
PS MN %gain OD gain % gain Shows   MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows
Th                          
Fri                   0.4     6.5
Sa                   1.3 0.9 202.3% 11.0
Su                   2.0 0.7 53.8% 16.0
Mo                   3.3 1.3 62.5% 22.0
Tu                   4.6 1.4 41.5% 27.9
We               5.6   8.5 3.9 84.8% 44.4
Th               7.8 14.0% 14.6 6.1 71.8% 54.6
Fr 53.5   37.2 37.2   90.0   9.0 14.7% 18.5 3.9 26.5% 59.2
Sa 66.0 23.4% 65.7 28.5 76.6% 120.0   10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0
Su 80.0 21.2% 79.2 13.5 20.5% 130.0   11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0
Mo 82.0 2.5% 92.0 12.8 16.2% 135.2   11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7
Tu 84.9 3.5% 102.5 10.5 11.4% 141.5   12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8
We 93.5 10.1% 113.0 10.5 10.2% 146.0   15.0 17.2% 43.1 9.4 27.9% 79.7
Th 104.4 11.7% 126.5 13.5 11.9% 153.4   16.6 10.7% 50.4 7.3 16.9% 86.9
Fr 110.0 5.4% 138.0 11.5 9.1% 160.0   17.9 7.8% 58.2 7.8 15.5% 93.1
Sa 116.0 5.5% 150.0 12.0 8.7% 167.0   19.3 7.8% 65.8 7.6 13.1% 97.0
Su 122.0 5.2% 165.0 15.0 10.0% 172.0   20.9 8.3% 75.3 9.5 14.4% 100.5
Mo 130.0 6.6% 185.0 20.0 12.1% 178.0   22.8 9.1% 88.9 13.6 18.1% 112.8
Tu 160.0 23.1% 255.0 70.0 37.8% 195.0   25.8 13.2% 107.4 18.5 20.8% 133.6
We               30.6 18.6% 129.0 21.6 20.1% 154.6
Th               59.5 94.4% 182.0 53.0 41.1% 178.0
OD BO 150.0   440.0   72.5% 200.0   59.5   387.0   112.6% 182.0
Multi         1.73             2.13  
        3day 5day       3 day 5day      
  PS m OD OD m OW OW OW m Total OD $ OW $ OW$ Total $ XR  
EG 1.73 440 2.73 1200 1800 2.67 3200 66 179 268 477 6.71  
IW 2.12 387 3.28 1271 1463 1.88 2390 61 201 231 376 6.36  
Edited by POTUS 2020
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Maoyan is frozen but its safe to say that 

 

Avengers: Endgame is now the biggest pre-seller in China.

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15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Maoyan is frozen but its safe to say that 

 

Avengers: Endgame is now the biggest pre-seller in China.

It also looks to be the movie that's wreaked the most havoc on Maoyan's system. :ca:

 

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Crossed ¥410,000,000 on Maoyan. You know what that mean.

OW just crossed ¥400m

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Posted (edited)

If somehow it cross ¥500mn on OD.

 

¥170    
¥500    
¥305    -39.00%
¥351    15.00%
¥438    25.00%
¥228    -48.00%
    
¥1,992    
$297.5    

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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20 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If somehow it cross ¥500mn on OD.

 

¥170    
¥500    
¥305    -39.00%
¥351    15.00%
¥438    25.00%
¥228    -48.00%
    
¥1,992    
$297.5    

Seriously I have been thinking there are some chance that A:EG may break 300M USD opening week in both NA AND China, if the exchange rate is favorable.

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I don't want to be a party pooper but I think Thursday is going to drop harder than 40%, ps are down a lot and Friday presales are already a lot bigger than those on Thursday so I would give Thursday a bigger drop and friday a higher jump.

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8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I don't want to be a party pooper but I think Thursday is going to drop harder than 40%, ps are down a lot and Friday presales are already a lot bigger than those on Thursday so I would give Thursday a bigger drop and Friday a higher jump.

I agree. I also think Sunday won't drop softer than 50%. Being effectively a Monday, and having so much demand burnt off already, I see it dropping more. 

 

Personally, I still can't see it going over $250m 5-day.

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17 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I don't want to be a party pooper but I think Thursday is going to drop harder than 40%, ps are down a lot and Friday presales are already a lot bigger than those on Thursday so I would give Thursday a bigger drop and friday a higher jump.

That said, Thursday numbers are over 3x Venom and CM Friday 5 days out.

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26 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I agree. I also think Sunday won't drop softer than 50%. Being effectively a Monday, and having so much demand burnt off already, I see it dropping more. 

 

Personally, I still can't see it going over $250m 5-day.

Just for the sake of argument, I don't think Sunday is effectively a Monday. 

Yes, it is a work day due to the holiday schedule, however Monday is a holiday. If anything, Sunday will act like a typical Friday where people also work during the day but then have the next day off and therefore evening shows pick up. 

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7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Just for the sake of argument, I don't think Sunday is effectively a Monday. 

Yes, it is a work day due to the holiday schedule, however Monday is a holiday. If anything, Sunday will act like a typical Friday where people also work during the day but then have the next day off and therefore evening shows pick up. 

Whaaaaaaat, Monday holiday? First I’m hearing about this, can I get a source?       

 

Was pretty sure Sun, Mon, Tues workday; Wed-2nd Sat extended Labor Day, Sun 5th workday again

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4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Whaaaaaaat, Monday holiday? First I’m hearing about this, can I get a source?       

 

Was pretty sure Sun, Mon, Tues workday; Wed-2nd Sat extended Labor Day, Sun 5th workday again

 

Same. I thought the holiday was May 1-4. If Monday is also a holiday, or the schedule is different, it changes things a bit.

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17 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Just for the sake of argument, I don't think Sunday is effectively a Monday. 

Yes, it is a work day due to the holiday schedule, however Monday is a holiday. If anything, Sunday will act like a typical Friday where people also work during the day but then have the next day off and therefore evening shows pick up. 

@Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep Any of you can confirm this?

 

If Monday is indeed a holiday then yes, Sunday can expect a smaller drop than 50%. I believe us here were under the impression that Sunday-Tuesday were all workdays?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$250mn is floor, unless film is awful.

Just like people said $200m was the "floor" for OW last year ;) 

 

Agree to disagree :) 

Edited by feasby007
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Just now, feasby007 said:

Just like people said $200m was the "floor" last year ;) 

 

Agree to disagree :) 

 

Well it did hit $200m lol

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1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Just like people said $200m was the "floor" last year ;) 

 

Agree to disagree :) 

It did $200,832,000.

:hahaha:

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