The Panda Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 If Thursday goes much lower than 7.7m then an over 70% drop could be in play, LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, filmlover said: Who else is gonna be ballsy enough to predict that The Boss will unseat it next weekend? It's quite common for a blockbuster that drops >65% on its second weekend to drop another 50+%. Way more of often than not, in fact. $25-30M doesn't seem like much of a stretch for a Melissa McCarthy film, so I'd say there's a real good chance The Boss opens to #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedieb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I don't think a 70% drop is out of the question. This is where the critical stench and the bad of mouth are going to do real damage. I think BvS would have had decent legs with at least one of those on its side, but without either of them it's going to fall like a rock. Ahh, I'll still end up buying the bluray. I've got to see the full cut. Even if it contains more TrollLuthor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 So, which WB monster movie will have the bette legs, Godzilla or BvS. (yes, BvS is a monster of a movie so I'm going to count it as one. Plus Doomsday is the ugliest looking Kaiju I've seen on screen) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 The Boss may not unseat BVS only because the Boss looks like awful shit, and recently, audiences seem to have been slightly more discerning when it comes to certain kinds of shitty product. I hope the Boss fails, too. Maybe Hardcore Henry can steal the win, which would be unheard of for a no-name distributor. Or maybe Midnight Special can expand again, if this weekend's expansion goes well enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babz06 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Is the Boss even tracking well? It seems too quiet on the marketing front. Could be one of Mccarthy's lowest openers to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 8.5m is actually a smaller Wednesday drop than Furious 7. Furious 7 fell 31% on its first Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Just now, Krissykins said: 8.5m is actually a smaller Wednesday drop than Furious 7. Furious 7 fell 31% on its first Wednesday. It also had a much harsher Tuesday drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jse Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 If a big chunk of the country has kids on spring break, is this gonna have muted Friday and Saturday increases, Then softer Sunday decrease? But supposedly Canada has two-week spring breaks now, don't know if its similar down south. Could this soften Monday decrease as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 (edited) 35 minutes ago, DeeCee said: You'd have say that it's ceiling now is the current gross plus whatever FF7 made from this point. Subtracting all the gross from F7 from its Preview/Friday to Wednesday and considering that BvS is tracking below F7 and using the rest of F7's run as ceiling, the number is 169,305,440. So that would place BvS at the very most at $374,713,609, and that is if it makes the exact same amount of money that F7 did, and it's already fumbling. So yeah, I'd say that $375m is the ceiling for BvS Dom with everything going right from now on, and my under $350m prediction doesn't look so crazy after all. EDIT: About the method I've used: I used the actual numbers from BvS up until Tuesday, using Mojo's actuals and Rth's actual from Tuesday he posted on the Tuesday thread. I completely disregarded the $8.5m from Wednesday and used the run that F7 did from its first Wednesday forward. If the trend keeps going during the weekend, I'd say it's very likely that's the ceiling with a huge probability of under $350m like I was theorizing on the last thread. Edited March 31, 2016 by iJackSparrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 My predictions. I know, not very nice of me. Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.0m (-29%) Fri: 12.0m (+100%) was thinking only 80% Sat: 15.6m (+30%) Sun: 12.0m (-23%) Wknd: 39.6m (-76%) If it has MoS %'s (actually, they're worse than mine, lol) Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.62m (-22.1%) 77.9 Fri: 11.85m (+79%) Sat: 15.31m (+29.2%) Sun: 11.83m (-22.7%) 77.3 Wknd: 38.99m (-76.5%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 My first instinct was that this is a lousy number. On second thought, though, it doesn't seem that awful. Basically, on a "more normal" week, we'd have seen a slightly harsher Monday drop, a lighter Tuesday drop, and a 31-32% Wed drop. BVS just took a slightly different route to the same end result. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, Krissykins said: 8.5m is actually a smaller Wednesday drop than Furious 7. Furious 7 fell 31% on its first Wednesday. Yes, but that's because F7's Tuesday was $13.3m and BvS was $12.18m. F7's Wednesday was $9.18m and BvS $8.5m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, lancelot123 said: My predictions. I know, not very nice of me. Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.0m (-29%) Fri: 12.0m (+100%) was thinking only 80% Sat: 15.6m (+30%) Sun: 12.0m (-23%) Wknd: 39.6m (-76%) If it has MoS %'s (actually, they're worse than mine, lol) Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.62m (-22.1%) 77.9 Fri: 11.85m (+79%) Sat: 15.31m (+29.2%) Sun: 11.83m (-22.7%) 77.3 Wknd: 38.99m (-76.5%) OUCH. Haha. No way this thing goes under $50m this weekend. But I see where you going and I don't doubt anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looking at one day can be misleading so combining Mon + Tue + Wed and seeing it as a % of Sunday, F7 : 14 + 13.3 + 9.2 = 36.5m is 110% of 33.15m BvS : 15 + 12.2 + 8.5 = 35.7m is 105% of 33.80m F7 has a better ratio of OW too (Even excluding previews). 36.5 of 131m > 35.7m of 138m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 14 minutes ago, babz06 said: Is the Boss even tracking well? It seems too quiet on the marketing front. Could be one of Mccarthy's lowest openers to date. I've seen plenty of ads on TV. Besides, if McCarthy could power Tammy, of all things, $80M+ with just her name alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 16 minutes ago, lancelot123 said: My predictions. I know, not very nice of me. Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.0m (-29%) Fri: 12.0m (+100%) was thinking only 80% Sat: 15.6m (+30%) Sun: 12.0m (-23%) Wknd: 39.6m (-76%) If it has MoS %'s (actually, they're worse than mine, lol) Wed: 8.5m Thu: 6.62m (-22.1%) 77.9 Fri: 11.85m (+79%) Sat: 15.31m (+29.2%) Sun: 11.83m (-22.7%) 77.3 Wknd: 38.99m (-76.5%) Summer...completely different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5upe5 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, a2knet said: Looking at one day can be misleading so combining Mon + Tue + Wed and seeing it as a % of Sunday, F7 : 14 + 13.3 + 9.2 = 36.5m is 110% of 33.15m BvS : 15 + 12.2 + 8.5 = 35.7m is 105% of 33.80m F7 has a better ratio of OW too (Even excluding previews). 36.5 of 131m > 35.7m of 138m Those mon-weds totals kinda put this weird week into perspective a little bit. The drops seems way worse than the actual numbers....but, BvS cannot continue to keep falling behind. Gotta at least maintain pace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I'm not ruling out God's Not Dead 2 winning this weekend. Much bigger release than the first one it looks like, 780 vs 2300+. Not my type of movie, so I know nothing about it. Meet the Blacks is huge a long shot, but people may need a comedy to get them out of the depression that BvS gave them. I would be shocked if Hardcore Henry (actually really interested in seeing this, just for it's uniqueness) or The Boss doesn't take 1st place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeZ Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, lancelot123 said: I'm not ruling out God's Not Dead 2 winning this weekend. Much bigger release than the first one it looks like, 780 vs 2300+. Not my type of movie, so I know nothing about it. Meet the Blacks is huge a long shot, but people may need a comedy to get them out of the depression that BvS gave them. I would be shocked if Hardcore Henry (actually really interested in seeing this, just for it's uniqueness) or The Boss doesn't take 1st place. You expect God's Not Dead 2 to outgross BvS's second weekend? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
