Weekend Estimates : BVS 52.39M | Zootopia 20M | Wedding 11.13M | God's Not Dead 8.1M | Sun Rth - Bvs 12 or 14.2, Zoo 5.3, MBFGW2 2.8, GND2 2

[a2k]

imo next weekend BVS will fall around 55%. 23m

The weekend after that Jungle Book opens. So instead of a 45-50% recovery in 4th weekend, will have another ~55% drop. 10.25m

Then when Huntsmen opens it shouldn't drop big but will loose some theaters again, ~41%. 6m

Then a good hold with a ~37.5% drop the weekend Keanu & Mother's Day open. 3.75m

Then ~47% against Civil War. Drops are smaller with small numbers so should not drop much more than that. 2m

That gives 45m in weekends + 4m more in weekends after that = 49m in remaining weekends.

Assuming it has 13m this Mon-Thu followed by a 23m weekend, using that same ratio of 13:23, 49m in remaining weekends implies 28m in remaining weekdays.

So 49m + 28m = 77m more to it's 261m tally for 338m.

Edited April 4, 2016 by a2knet

[75Live]

42 minutes ago, fastclock said:

Question: how do you insert a jpeg image into a post?

 

get the link/address of the image and just paste into a post.  You may have to hit enter a couple times and the image will just show up 

[SnarkIndustries]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

imo next weekend BVS will fall around 55%. 23m

The weekend after that Jungle Book opens. So instead of a 45-50% recovery in 4th weekend, will have another ~55% drop. 10.25m

Then when Huntsmen opens it shouldn't drop big but will loose some theaters again, ~41%. 6m

Then a good hold with a ~37.5% drop the weekend Keanu & Mother's Day open. 3.75m

Then ~47% against Civil War. Drops are smaller with small numbers so should not drop much more than that. 2m

That gives 45m in weekends + 4m more in weekends after that = 49m in remaining weekends.

Assuming it has 13m this Mon-Thu followed by a 23m weekend, using that same ratio of 13:23, 49m in remaining weekends implies 28m in remaining weekdays.

So 49m + 28m = 77m more to it's 261m tally for 338m.

 

If so, it would be slightly below Iron Man 2, adjusted ($341.9 million).

[rukaio101]

40 minutes ago, lancelot123 said:

The extended edition will change nothing. The GA won't see it. I won't even see it. 

 

It's like the Mandarin in IM3. Does the GA know that he wasn't the real one and that he's still out there? No, cause they didn't say so in the movie. It was talked about in a one shot marvel did for the internet. 

 

If it's not in the movie while in the theater, the vast majority of the population won't know about it. 

That's a good, logical sensible point. Significantly different from my own reasoning that the extended edition will change nothing because it'll probably be just as terrible.

 

Seriously, this was not a film that needed to be fixed by adding more pointless scenes and R-Rated violence to it. That's like the exact opposite of what this film needed. And unless Snyder had literally the worst editing judgement in the world, I severely doubt the stuff he considered worth leaving on the cutting room floor is going to fix the million different problems this movie has.

 

[SnarkIndustries]

37 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

So, there are things like vod and Netflix and blu-Ray. Many times franchises gain fans through this secondary market. Then they go see the sequels in theater. Kind of like a snowball rolling downhill. LOTR is one of the best examples of this.

 

People will see the new cut as their first experience with the DCEU and get hooked, then get angry they were fooled by overly negative reviews then tell friends how good it is and all will jump on the bandwagon.

 

Maybe that will happen, but it will take a lot of heavy lifting:

 

 

Also, on an adjusted basis, the LotR movies had a modest domestic increase ($477m, $502m, $536m)

 

[HAL 9000]

41 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

So, there are things like vod and Netflix and blu-Ray. Many times franchises gain fans through this secondary market. Then they go see the sequels in theater. Kind of like a snowball rolling downhill. LOTR is one of the best examples of this.

 

People will see the new cut as their first experience with the DCEU and get hooked, then get angry they were fooled by overly negative reviews then tell friends how good it is and all will jump on the bandwagon.

 

What makes you think people seeing it on Netflix etc are going to love the film when people who saw it in the cinemas seemingly didnt?

 

Yes films like Batman Begins, that most people really liked, can drive up interest in sequels when they hit DVD/TV etc but i cant see any reason to believe this is the case for BvS or a 30 minutes longer version thereof.

[SoSaysI]

1 minute ago, HAL 9000 said:

 

What makes you think people seeing it on Netflix etc are going to love the film when people who saw it in the cinemas seemingly didnt?

 

Yes films like Batman Begins, that most people really liked, can drive up interest in sequels when they hit DVD/TV etc but i cant see any reason to believe this is the case for BvS or a 30 minutes longer version thereof.

 

Yep.  It is clear at this point that the general audience didn't care for BvS so there is zero reason to think that is going to change.

[Daxtreme]

LOTR is pretty much the only series (minimum of 3 movies) where each sequel outgrossed its predecessor in every category: OW, OW adjusted, Dom total, WW total, adjusted total

 

It's an incredible achievement. Even the Iron Man series couldn't do it, but it came close, and it benefited from the goodwill generated by additional supporting characters, and other movies (Avengers), while LOTR had nothing but its own great reception to carry it.

 

edit: Oh wait, there's Toy Story too. I don't think there's any other series, just those 2. Both of these series have something in common: they're universally loved, and at least 1 movie in each series has been nominated for, or won, Best Picture.

 

It's funny because they're quite the opposite too. LOTR came out in back-to-back years, while Toy Story went with the "several years between movies" hiatus. Both worked in their own way. 

Edited April 4, 2016 by Daxtreme

[Lancelot Gold]

34 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

So, there are things like vod and Netflix and blu-Ray. Many times franchises gain fans through this secondary market. Then they go see the sequels in theater. Kind of like a snowball rolling downhill. LOTR is one of the best examples of this.

 

People will see the new cut as their first experience with the DCEU and get hooked, then get angry they were fooled by overly negative reviews then tell friends how good it is and all will jump on the bandwagon.

The snowballing only works if the movie is liked by the GA and has good WOM. Like LotR. It's not a good idea to compare any comic book movie to that though. It'll be a long time before we see a CBM nominated for best picture. If ever. 

 

The only way a lot of people will see the extended version of BvS is if it's the only home version, which it won't be. If they're smart at least. Release the regular version, wait a few months and release the extended. They get a ton more sales the way. This is how they usually do it. 

[grey ghost]

The Captain America trilogy is going to snowball.

[Lancelot Gold]

31 minutes ago, rukaio101 said:

That's a good, logical sensible point. Significantly different from my own reasoning that the extended edition will change nothing because it'll probably be just as terrible.

 

Seriously, this was not a film that needed to be fixed by adding more pointless scenes and R-Rated violence to it. That's like the exact opposite of what this film needed. And unless Snyder had literally the worst editing judgement in the world, I severely doubt the stuff he considered worth leaving on the cutting room floor is going to fix the million different problems this movie has.

 

Yeah, there is that too, lol. 

[langer]

20 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

LOTR is pretty much the only series (minimum of 3 movies) where each sequel outgrossed its predecessor in every category: OW, OW adjusted, Dom total, WW total, adjusted total

 

It's an incredible achievement. Even the Iron Man series couldn't do it, but it came close, and it benefited from the goodwill generated by additional supporting characters, and other movies (Avengers), while LOTR had nothing but its own great reception to carry it.

 

Bourne series (Damon)  and Toy Story fit the bill also. 

[Lordmandeep]

Yikes 70% on flixter already....

[ecstasy]

12 minutes ago, langer said:

 

Bourne series (Damon)  and Toy Story fit the bill also. 

 

Bourne. Though I don't know how the 5th will do.

 

Legacy kind of messed it up box office wise.

[mredman]

LMAO i cant believe what i am reading from some here. Yeah everyone hated the movie I can assure you there are plenty who like it and there will be plenty who will like it on Blu-Ray when it comes out. So yeah it can perfectly find new fans. And of course new haters as well. I think the movie is fantastic right from its beautifully shot opening with zimmers and Junkies fantastic score for "a beautiful lie" then the fantastic scene of Bruce seeing world engine destruction from his view is just brilliant and seeing Superman get thrown into Wayne building by Zod and Zods laser eyes makes it collapse and so on and so on. There is so many good stuff in this movie. That its just not to fathom that critics gave it a bad rating. At least top critics like Roeper and Travers saw the brilliance. This movie is so good and sets up the future DC brilliantly

Edited April 4, 2016 by mredman

[mredman]

1 hour ago, jse said:

14.2M is a pretty good number, considering I thought it would do a 12M-ish Sun and a 21M Sat

yep it definitely is considering Wrestlemania nand TWD finale was on

[Daxtreme]

3 minutes ago, mredman said:

LMAO i cant believe what i am reading from some here. Yeah everyone hated the movie I can assure you there are plenty who like it and there will be plenty who will like it on Blu-Ray when it comes out. So yeah it can perfectly find new fans. And of course new haters as well. I think the movie is fantastic right from its beautifully shot opening with immers and Junkies fantastic score for "a beautiful lie" then the fantastic scene of Bruce seeing world engine destruction from his view is just brilliant and seeing Superman get thrown into Wayne building by Zod and Zods laser eyes makes it collapse. There is so many good stuff in this movie. That its just not to fathom that critics gave it a bad rating. At least top critics like Roeper and Travers saw the brilliance. This movie is so good and sets up the future DC brilliantly

 

[ecstasy]

1 hour ago, Emirazza said:

Monday estimates for BvS?

 

Theaters are barely open.

[mredman]

17 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

well its just YOUR opinion as well

[K1stpierre]

Actuals?