Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[EmpireCity]

The board has jumped the shark this week.  I mean, a Captain America movie opens to $175m or so and the whiplash reaction that it was somehow a disappointment and that will translate to about a dozen other movies coming out is silly.  

 

Again, this is the 3rd Captain America movie and you would need to watch a minimum of 6 or 7 total Marvel films to even understand what in the hell is going on.  The fact that this will nearly double the opening of the last Captain America movie (and given the fact this is easily the most violent and adult MCU movie yet) is a huge win. 

[Rman823]

Watch Ghostbusters be the only movie that over performs this summer.

[NCsoft]

8 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

A Phantom Menace dynamic is at play with Force Awakens, for entirely different reasons of course, not as strong and harsh , But I can definitely feel it.

It is interesting, but I kind of felt that way too.

There's definitely not a strong backlash like with Phantom Menace, it's not a love it/hate it relationship, but rather a kind of tame feeling, people generally like it, but not invigorated by it.  The Force Awakens didn't hit people the way its massive domestic box office success would suggest. I don't know if people are genuinely interested in the story line and the characters of the new saga, or is The Force Awakens more like a one hit  nostalgia dream.

The Force Awakens was also noticeably absent from the award season last year, which is almost odd considering its massive box office, and award season release date, it was in fact overshadowed by other commercial hits such as The Martian and MMFR. In the past all time domestic box office Champs almost always get a Best picture nomination.

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

The board has jumped the shark this week.  I mean, a Captain America movie opens to $175m or so and the whiplash reaction that it was somehow a disappointment and that will translate to about a dozen other movies coming out is silly.  

 

Again, this is the 3rd Captain America movie and you would need to watch a minimum of 6 or 7 total Marvel films to even understand what in the hell is going on.  The fact that this will nearly double the opening of the last Captain America movie (and given the fact this is easily the most violent and adult MCU movie yet) is a huge win. 

 

It's nothing new here. Whenever a movie gets great reviews people jack up their predictions to wildly unrealistic levels and then call for the endtimes when the reality fails to meet their expectations.

[somebody85]

Movies in 2016 and 2017 that I think will be over predicted:

1) Star Wars: Episode 8
2) Guardians Of The Galaxy 2
3) Suicide Squad
4) Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
5) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 
6) Finding Dory

7) Wonder Woman
8) Spider-Man: Homecoming
9) Justice League (yep DC fans will still be on it again if that first trailer looks good)
10) Fast 8

 

[a2k]

This is a great ow but not because it's a Captain America movie. It's not. It's qausi-Avengers and still it's a great ow. It's a great ow for any movie.

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

Watch Ghostbusters be the only movie that over performs this summer.

If it makes a single dollar, it will be too much for the butthurt fanboys.

[Daxtreme]

Tell people back in 2011 that a freakin Captain America movie would open to $180 million and just watch the reactions you'd get

[LinksterAC]

As far as I'm concerned, this was a huge win for Marvel.

 

Christopher Markus and Steven McFeely (screenwriters for CW) had an interview on IGN where they mentioned how the MCU has finally earned the right to incorporate several characters into a movie and still have it make sense without a lot of exposition.  

 

This is the dream scenario.  Cap 3 won't be the last "solo" film that shows multiple MCU characters.  Ragnarok will feature Hulk, the new Spider-Man will include Tony Stark, and to me it looks like Black Panther will include Captain America and The Secret Avengers (or some reasonable facsimile).

 

In short, Marvel must be licking its lips.  They have a scenario now where they can annually produce a "mini-Avengers" move that will have the drawing power a solo outing couldn't have.   CA3 opening this big can be viewed as nothing but a huge positive for them.

[Rman823]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

Tell people back in 2011 that a freakin Captain America movie would open to $180 million and just watch the reactions you'd get

Tell them Spider-Man is in it and see what reactions you would get. 

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

 

It's nothing new here. Whenever a movie gets great reviews people jack up their predictions to wildly unrealistic levels and then call for the endtimes when the reality fails to meet their expectations.

 

Exactly.  

 

Does anyone even remember last year around this time?  AOU opens "disappointing" and suddenly you get people here and in the trades writing think piece articles on how the era of big openings are over and the industry is in big trouble.  I think Mendelson was one of the idiots pushing that.  Then Jurassic World rocks everyone and people are right back on the bandwagon.  

 

Now a freaking Captain America movie opens to $175m+ and here comes the gloom and doom.  I am going to laugh when Independence Day: Resurgence comes out of nowhere and puts up a huge number.  

Edited May 8, 2016 by nilephelan

[AniNate]

5 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

Exactly.  

 

Does anyone even remember last year around this time?  AOU opens "disappointing" and suddenly you get people here and in the trades writing think piece articles on how the era of big openings are over and the industry is in big trouble.  I think Mendelson was one of the idiots pushing that.  Then Jurassic World rocks everyone and people are right back on the bandwagon.  

 

Now a freaking Captain America movie opens to $175m+ and here comes the gloom and doom.  I am going to laugh when Independence Day: Resurgence comes out of nowhere and puts up a huge number.  

 

Well, that's the other side of the coin. Just because one movie does well doesn't mean another one will. I always find it a silly argument when people use one movie's performance as proof that another unrelated one will flop/break out.

Edited May 8, 2016 by tribefan695

[The Futurist]

5 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

Exactly.  

 

Does anyone even remember last year around this time?  AOU opens "disappointing" and suddenly you get people here and in the trades writing think piece articles on how the era of big openings are over and the industry is in big trouble.  I think Mendelson was one of the idiots pushing that.  Then Jurassic World rocks everyone and people are right back on the bandwagon.  

 

Now a freaking Captain America movie opens to $175m+ and here comes the gloom and doom.  I am going to laugh when Independence Day: Resurgence comes out of nowhere and puts up a huge number.  

 

Civil War will win the summer obviously.

 

Only Rogue has a chance at beating its OW, I d say it s 50/50 for that.

[JeepCSC]

Haha at these Star Wars doubters. Like what? TFA was well-enjoyed and left on a cliffhanger with merely a glimpse of the most famous Jedi ever. It will open huge and remain huge through the holidays. 

[LinksterAC]

19 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

Movies in 2016 and 2017 that I think will be over predicted:

1) Star Wars: Episode 8
2) Guardians Of The Galaxy 2
3) Suicide Squad
4) Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
5) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 
6) Finding Dory

7) Wonder Woman
8) Spider-Man: Homecoming
9) Justice League (yep DC fans will still be on it again if that first trailer looks good)
10) Fast 8

 

 

Episode 8 is going to be massive.  If the drop from VII to Episode VIII is proportional to the drop from I to II, you're looking at a $675M domestic haul.

 

TFA is much better received the TPM was.  $675M really has to be viewed as a very low-end prediction for this film.  

 

CW's weekend is fantastic.

Edited May 8, 2016 by LinksterAC

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

Civil War will win the summer obviously.

 

Only Rogue has a chance at beating its OW, I d say it s 50/50 for that.

 

For openings?  Possibly.  

 

Overall I think Dory has a shot at beating it.  

[LinksterAC]

Just now, nilephelan said:

 

For openings?  Possibly.  

 

Overall I think Dory has a shot at beating it.  

 

I never thought about it, but you've got a point.  Adjusted for inflation, Finding Nemo sits at $528M.  CW will probably end up around $450M.  It should be a good race.

[filmnerdjamie]

My money's always been on Finding Dory to win the summer. Still is.

[grim22]

We’re hearing thatDisney’s/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War cashed in a $60M Saturday, the fifth highest ever, beating Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $56.5M last year. This points Civil War in the $180M vicinity, which would make it the fifth highest opening of all-time. By EOD tomorrow, Civil War is poised to hit $700M worldwide, and is on its way to profit in its theatrical run after a $250M production cost, and an estimated global P&A near Ultron’s $180M.

 

On ComScore Postrak which continually polls moviegoers throughout the weekend, Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25.  Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.

[Ryan Reynolds]

6 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

Episode 8 is going to be massive.  If the drop from VII to Episode VIII is proportional to the drop from I to II, you're looking at a $675M domestic haul.  

 

TFA is much better received the TPM was.  $675M really has to be viewed as a very low-end prediction for this film.  

 

CW's weekend is fantastic.

I would agree, the drop off may not be as big, but that was a different era, still should do 600m+, if TFA connected with younger audiences than big grosses can be sustained