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Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

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13 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Make a club and I'll join.

I just might. Not that I want DS to fail; I'm ridiculously hyped for it. I just think SS will be big. Not quite Deadpool big, but almost there. Maybe Guardians big.

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35 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

 

 mine was

1.Dory

2.Civil War

3.Suicide Squad

4.Pets

5.X-Men

6.Ghostbusters

7.IDR

8.The BFG

9.Star Trek

10.Bourne

11.Sausage Party

12.Central Intelligence

13.Alice

14.Conjuring

15.TMNT

 

My top 4 have a great chance at being in order.  And I should get 13/15 or 14/15 (bar no other surprise breakout and Sausage Party breaking out), Alice will likely be the one or two misses I have 

I do think you think you're perhaps the only one with a shot at getting the top 4 right in order, but I think expecting 13 or 14/15 is wildly optimistic.

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30 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

obviously Captain America did well it is just kind of funny since some people were saying the legs would be closer to Ant Man or Guardians because of the reviews

 

Personally, I'm glad that CW has gotten such strong reviews even if it can't surpass IM3. I think while AOU did well, the mediocre reviews hurt MCU as a whole, so to have CW pulled in exceptional score on RT and elsewhere really set up Infinity War nicely. Plus the Russo Bros. will get to handle the biggest crossover movies ever, where a lot of money is on the line and Marvel needs reliable directors like them to handle it.

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58 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

That's absolutely false.

 

Just since the start of summer we've had Angry Birds (failing to make $110m), Alice 2 and TMNT2 (both failing to make $90m). 

 

Zootopia is an outlier. Dreamworks have not had a single non-Shrek film make more than $230m if I'm not mistaken. Before Frozen, Disney hadn't made above $200m since what, the Lion King? Aladdin? Pixar made bank with Inside Out, but Good Dinosaur bombed. Even before that, only Toy Story 3 made more than $300m. 

 

 

 

Angry Birds passed the $100m threshold I said.  I flat out said you have to be pretty bad to make less than $100m and TMNT 2 was bad.  Alice 2 isn't really a kids movie, but even if you want to define it as that, it also was pretty bad.  It isn't false.  Look at the kids movies the last couple years.  I am talking about recently not some dark days of Disney animation 25 years ago.  Modern box office.  

 

Since 2013 you have Dory, Zootopia, Jungle Book, Inside Out, Minions, Frozen and Despicable Me 2 all go $300m+ and Secret Life of Pets and Moana will join them soon.  Then you have Cinderella, Lego Movie, Maleficent, Big Hero 6, Oz and Monsters University all go $200m+

 

9 movies over $300m and 6 more over $200m and you have a plethora of movies in the $100m+ range.  

 

The better way to go about this is to count the kids movies that didn't go over $100m in the same time period....

 

Escape From Planet Earth, Turbo, The Smurfs 2, Planes ($93m and was supposed to go straight to video), Free Birds, The Nut Job, Muppets Most Wanted, Alexander, Legend of Oz: Dorthy's Return, Earth To Echo, Planes Fire and Rescue, Boxtrolls, The Book of Life, Penguins, Paddington, Strange Magic, Shaun the Sheep, Pan, Goosebumps, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Norm of the North, Rachet & Clank, Alice and TMNT 2.  

 

Notice any pattern in that list?  The vast majority is garbage that came from crappy studios like Focus/Relativity/Weinstein or live action for older kids.  Pretty much everything animated or from a major studio goes over $100m and the only exceptions are Turbo/Alvin/Book of Life from the shitty Fox animation and a Smurfs sequel.  Even stuff that was supposed to go direct to video from Disney like Planes in a bad release time nearly made $100m

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Wrath said:

I do think you think you're perhaps the only one with a shot at getting the top 4 right in order, but I think expecting 13 or 14/15 is wildly optimistic.

 

Possibly, but the only one of those I see with a possibility of missing (without a major breakout from something else) is Sausage Party

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