July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[Rman823]

Just got out of Election Year and I feel it's the best of the Purge films. Amazing how each film improves on the previous entry. Also from the looks of Tarzan's reviews I hope Yates was putting all his effort into Fantastic Beasts. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I'm very happy with Purge's number. 

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, James said:

You all act like it is a done deal that Tarzan will have bad WOM. But looking at the Audience's rating on RT, both it and BFG are at 69%, but Tarzan has twice the numbers of voters compared to BFG. Plus, BFG has the advantage of Spielberg and his fanbase. Things look the same on IMDB. It looks to me like Tarzan's WOM is at least as strong as BFG's if online indicators are accurate at all. 

IDR also was at 69% at this point in time last week. Is it a done deal that Tarzan will have bad WOM? No. But the fact that a movie like that is already below 70% coupled with the shitty reviews will effect it's box office run. Last weekend was a very good example of how good reviews can elevate a film and how bad reviews can just cripple a film. And I also already said I don't expect BFG to do anything box office wise...but I wouldn't use online indicators for a film like the BFG because it's a children's film. Just like you'd expect a film like The Purge to be tracking at a certain rate on social media/online, the same can be said about films that target the younger folks or the older ones. You can't really compare BFG to Tarzan at this point because they're not targeting the same demographic. Regardless I don't see either film hitting $40M for the 4 day and I don't see them hitting $30M either. 

Edited July 1, 2016 by Nova

[mrqe93]

WTF. Could Purge 3 take #1 this weekend? 

[grim22]

How do these things keep happening?

 

 

[UrosepsisFace]

30 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

30-40 is a huge range for these three films.  So are they going to open to the same number or in that range?

 

I think all three have a chance to fall in that range. Or, in other words, all three could exceed early forecast. Two of the three would still be financial disappointments, but at least Tarzan and BFG doing above expected bomb status to slightly better bombs status is encouraging for the market, imo. In other words, I'm cheering for all three to beat Alice i.e. a more-balanced and encouraging July 4th weekend than Memorial Day weekend. Even if it's 40-31-31 I'd be pretty happy.

[filmlover]

Just now, grim22 said:

How do these things keep happening?

 

 

I posted a story about that a few days ago. Literally laughing my fucking ass off.

[a2k]

TARZAN is well suited for summer. It's a different film and not much competition. Summer weekdays will help it have a decent run if WOM is good. The budget is too high but I don't think the book is closed on 100m dom.

[Porthos]

I'm not at all surprised at BFG's number, even given the relative lack of buzz.  It's just a weird looking film with a strange title, and those can be really random when it comes to initial box office.  For every Nightmare Before Christmas, there are a dozen films like James and the Giant Peach out there.  Now Tele is absolultely right that the "long tail" might come into play here with home video/streaming/TV showings.  And that's presuming that it doesn't do well in walkups this weekend, which we still don't know.

 

And, who knows?  Maybe this film just isn't right for its time.  Wouldn't be the first time a quality film (if it is a quality film) underperformed in one era only to be re-evaluated in another.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Porthos

[Wrath]

34 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Angry Birds was about as good as a movie made to justify the scene where birds launch themselves at a pigs castle using a catapult could possibly be. I enjoyed the movie for sure.

Well said. I'd argue that it was actually better than it needed to be, given its circumstances.

[DAJK]

Seeing Tarzan when I get back home Monday, Purge Tuesday, maybe BFG Wednesday. I hope 1 or 2 of the openers can get 10M today.

[RandomCat]

13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

How do these things keep happening?

 

 

 

Are they saying "Sausage Party" is R-rated, or the trailer is R-rated. Because if they showed the redband trailer in front of Dory...

[dudalb]

Still amazed that anybody thinks 25 Million is good number for Tarzan,considering the budget and bad reviews. BUt I have noted that a lot of people post things like "Good" or "Solid" opening about a film without taking the budget into consideration.

For a low budget film like The Shallows,25 Million would be a wonderful opening, for a 180 Milliiion dollar tentpole like Tarzan, it's a disaster.

A lot of people, frankly, seem to have trouble with the concept that big budget, CGI heavy action film can actually bomb at the box office.

[Fancyarcher]

37 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Then, he had Raiders, E.T., Poltergeist, Gremlins, two more Indys, The Color Purple, BTTF, Goonies, American Tail & Land Before Time (both doing far better than the 70s/80s Disney films except Oliver, Mermaid and Rescuers), Roger Rabbit, Hook, Jurassic Park and Schindler's List over the course of 12 years.

 

Spielberg directed BTTF, and Gremlins? That I was not aware.

 

Think you might wanna make clarifying which films he produced and directed, just a bit. There are some naive people who actually think he directed BTTF.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Still amazed that anybody thinks 25 Million is good number for Tarzan,considering the budget and bad reviews. BUt I have noted that a lot of people post things like "Good" or "Solid" opening about a film without taking the budget into consideration.

For a low budget film like The Shallows,25 Million would be a wonderful opening, for a 180 Milliiion dollar tentpole like Tarzan, it's a disaster.

A lot of people, frankly, seem to have trouble with the concept that big budget, CGI heavy action film can actually bomb at the box office.

People like to argue that because it's exceeding expectations, it means it's good. Meanwhile I'm like $25M or $30M OW for a $180M movie is a disaster regardless of the "expectations." I mean if we go by these standards then the Green Lantern had one hell of an opening 5 years ago. 

Edited July 1, 2016 by Nova

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Spielberg directed BTTF, and Gremlins? That I was not aware.

 

Think you might wanna make clarifying which films he produced and directed. There are some rather naive people who actually think he directed BTTF.

 

I used to think he directed Transformers.  Rookie mistake

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, ThatOneGuy said:

 

I used to think he directed Transformers.  Rookie mistake

 

Lol, I always assumed he was a co-director or myself, since the first Transformers constantly mentioned him in advertisement. Not to mention that was he was a producer, and suggested that the story be about a boy and his car.

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Spielberg directed BTTF, and Gremlins? That I was not aware.

 

Think you might wanna make clarifying which films he produced and directed. There are some rather naive people who actually think he directed BTTF.

 

But they were partially sold on his nsme.

[RandomCat]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Spielberg directed BTTF, and Gremlins? That I was not aware.

 

Think you might wanna make clarifying which films he produced and directed, just a bit. There are some naive people who actually think he directed BTTF.

 

The glory of Spielberg. Man directed/produced everyone's favorite movie when they were a kid in the 80s/90s

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

Because if they showed the redband trailer in front of Dory...

They did.