July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, Nova said:

Dory, Central Intelligence and The Shallows with the best holds from last weekend. All three dropped between 35-36% *according to Deadline.*

 

*Have to include the according to Deadline because I didn't bother to do the math myself so it's Deadline math. Take it as you will. 

 

Finding Dory	44.00
The Legend of Tarzan	34.00
The Purge 3	32.20
The BFG	20.50
Independence Day: Resurgence	16.20
Central Intelligence	11.80
The Shallows	9.30
Free State of Jones	4.30
The Conjuring 2	3.60
Now You See Me 2	3.00

 

projections based on 2011 Friday multies

 

 

[Fancyarcher]

4 hours ago, trifle said:

 

 

That blows my mind.

 

It's just a prediction though.

[picores]

46 minutes ago, bapi said:

IDR under 100m?

 

I think it will pass it, barely of course. Some good fudge

[POTUS 2020]

Apparently the Garry Marshall "holiday title effect" does not apply to IDR

Edited July 2, 2016 by No Prisoners

[UrosepsisFace]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

So according to the update that I just posted, Tarzan is supposed to finish in second place and beat out the Purge. Who would have thought. 

If you recall, I was predicting all three new releases to fall into the 30-40 million range. C'mon BFG, let's win some weekend mornings!

[marveldcfox]

8 hours ago, Nova said:

No they were harsh on it because it wasn't that good. It was no where near as bad as IDR but calling it WAYYYYY better is a reach. Besides as bad as IDR's OW, it hasn't had any catastrophic drops during the week. Tarzan will most likely open $10M less than IDR did OW for the three day and then have to play catch up. Either way they're both movies that are disappointing box office wise regardless of expectations. 

Looks like it will open only 6 million less and will have a bigger 4 day than IDR OW. IDR is the bigger embarassment because of the expectations. Many on this forum were expecting sub 20 million OW for tarzan and not more than 60m domestic. But last week I found out how much of a turkey IDR was going to be and that convinced me that Tarzan will do much better than pre-release expectations. Now it will most likely outgross IDR domestically. If it manages to do 400+ WW, WB will be happy. 

Edited July 2, 2016 by marveldcfox

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, bapi said:

IDR under 100m?

it will need to hold 50% next weekend and average that thru labor day. more than 55% next weekend and it falls short.

$100m-299m is elusive this year

[UrosepsisFace]

IDR seems to be doing TCJ2-like numbers. So if TCJ2 passes 100M mark, shouldn't IDR?

 

Also, how does LoT beat IDR if it's OW is worse? There's no guarantee it will have a stronger multiplier just because it has a higher Cinemascore than IDR.

[Bishop54]

16 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

IDR seems to be doing TCJ2-like numbers. So if TCJ2 passes 100M mark, shouldn't IDR?

 

Also, how does LoT beat IDR if it's OW is worse? There's no guarantee it will have a stronger multiplier just because it has a higher Cinemascore than IDR.

Look at the RT audience scores, that should tell you all you need to know.

[POTUS 2020]

11 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

IDR seems to be doing TCJ2-like numbers. So if TCJ2 passes 100M mark, shouldn't IDR?

 

Also, how does LoT beat IDR if it's OW is worse? There's no guarantee it will have a stronger multiplier just because it has a higher Cinemascore than IDR.

a 61% drop with a holiday boosted sunday and the holiday in the title that should give it another boost? that's horrific, its the equivalent of a 70% drop and will probably fall well over 50% next weekend, maybe 60%. Its dallies this week were under TC2 and it wasn't quite summer yet.

If LoTs cinema score holds up and it drop less than 60% next weekend and less than 50% the following it had a chance to catch up. I think they both fall short of 100m though

[UrosepsisFace]

9 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

Look at the RT audience scores, that should tell you all you need to know.

 

Lol, touche.

 

However, IDR has had a week w/ such bad ratings and WOM, and it's still outpacing TCJ2, so 100M, I would figure, is still quite manageable. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

a 61% drop with a holiday boosted sunday and the holiday in the title that should give it another boost? that's horrific, its the equivalent of a 70% drop and will probably fall well over 50% next weekend, maybe 60%. Its dallies this week were under TC2 and it wasn't quite summer yet.

If LoTs cinema score holds up and it drop less than 60% next weekend and less than 50% the following it had a chance to catch up. I think they both fall short of 100m though

 

Ah, that's reasonable.

Edited July 2, 2016 by UrosepsisFace

[POTUS 2020]

8 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

 

Lol, touche.

 

However, IDR has had a week w/ such bad ratings and WOM, and it's still outpacing TCJ2, so 100M, I would figure, is still quite manageable. 

how is it outpacing?

wed, tur, fri are all lower

Edited July 2, 2016 by No Prisoners

[baumer]

So with a 23 mill Friday Doey is on pace for about an 80 mill third weekend.

 

TFA is going down.

[James]

If Tarzan manages to hit 100m I think that with OS and home media it will break even and even bring in a small profit. If that happens WB might have the best summer out of all studios, seeing none none of their movies bombed. MBY, CI, CJ2 were very profitable, Lights Out and SS both look like breakouts, War Dogs had a good reception with the trailer and it likely was cheap to make. So really, their only flop movie was The Nice Guys, which was cheap anyways. Of course they didn't have huge movies like Disney (even though I predict SS to be absolutely enormous), but they also didn't have huge bombs like Disney (Alice 2, The BFG).  
 

Edited July 2, 2016 by James

[a2k]

If Tarzan does do 100m with good WOM it will be a win for David Yates even though the movie will be a flop. WB will have more confidence in him I guess.

[Napoleon]

I hope these projections hold for Tarzan.

[James]

Completely off-topic but I just saw this:

 

 

Josh Duhamel is a lucky lucky guy

[a2k]

Gap between TDK and DORY

1st weekend : 23.3m (158.4m vs 135.1m)

2nd weekend : 27.5m (313.8m vs 286.3m)

3rd weekend : 19.5m (393.8m vs ~374.3m; using 44m 3-day for DORY)

After Monday the gap will reduce to 14m (400m vs 386m)

 

I at least see DORY doing 515m. 100m clear of TS3.

[4815162342]

11 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

The weather has been very nice in DC. Too bad you'll probably bring that nasty Texas heat and humidity with you in August.

 

Jayhawk you know very well that D.C. and that portion of NoVa and Maryland is a muggy humidity-infested swamp in July and August. Don't get his hopes up.

[EmpireCity]

My math really sucks, but here is a best guess....

 

Purge - $14.4m

Tarzan - $14m

Dory - $13.2m

BFG - $7m

Independence Day - $4.7m

Central Intelligence - $3.7m

The Shallows - $3m