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Ezen Baklattan

Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

By Ezen Baklattan, in Numbers and Data

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

So is Pete's Dragon gonna be labeled as a bomb, flop, disappointment...? I mean the break even point would be just over 150WW, and I'm thinking legs will carry it to 80-85M DOM. Has it released overseas yet? Any indication how it's doing?

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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Posted
46 minutes ago, jb007 said:

 

It is a shocker because nobody believed that before its release.

 

I did. I put 360 in the summer game. I also has IDR at 450....so Yong and yang 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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Posted
1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Ben Hur? Ben Hur? :rofl:

And Ben-Hur right now has them until Sully which makes me believe in several scenarios: Ben-Hur actually keeps them that long (Transporter Refueled kept them for 2 weeks despite tanking), Suicide Squad takes them back on August 26 (even though the movie is doing only ok business in the format), Lionsgate announces a release in both formats for Mechanic: Resurrection (it depends on how much Lionsgate is willing to spend on IMAX copies and if the copy available online gains traction or not) or/and FOX announces Morgan to get them on Labor Day weekend (unlikely since several OS markets already cancelled his release which means FOX doesn't care), an older movie gets re-released in the formats (Dory, Pets, Civil War, Beyond, BvS UC, etc, take your pick).

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So is Pete's Dragon gonna be labeled as a bomb, flop, disappointment...? I mean the break even point would be just over 150WW, and I'm thinking legs will carry it to 80-85M DOM. Has it released overseas yet? Any indication how it's doing?

Pete's Dragon will end up as a solid performer. 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

I'm pretty sure SS won't pass 300m. I don't see any reason for late legs.

 

-43.8 in 2nd weekend takes it to 222.8 cume.

-Last Mon-Thu was 45.3. 

-Sun-Sun drop is 59%.

 

Give it a 59% drop this Mon-Thu  = 18.6

Give it a 59% drop in the 3rd weekend = 18

cume 222.8 + 18.6 + 18 = 259.4 after 3 weekends

 

Another 55% drop Mon-Thu and over the 4th weekend,

259.4 + 8.4 + 8.1 = 275.9 after the 4th weekend

 

65% drop Mon-Thu and 35% over the 5th weekend (labor day weekend)

275.9 + 2.9 + 5.3 = 284.1 after the 5th weekend

 

After this 8.2m week, final dom including dollar bump would be 292-293m.

 

Am not saying it will surely cross 300, but looking at the drops I gave I just don't think one can be sure that it won't :)

(especially if it's run even after the dollar bump takes it close to say, 297-298. Then WB may not let it fall short of 300)

Edited by a2knet
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So is Pete's Dragon gonna be labeled as a bomb, flop, disappointment...? I mean the break even point would be just over 150WW, and I'm thinking legs will carry it to 80-85M DOM. Has it released overseas yet? Any indication how it's doing?

 

It'll do fine and have a long long life in ancillary. 

 

The budget is a very reasonable $60-65m. 

 

To put that budget in comparison Planes which they made as a DTV movie before belatedly deciding to release it theaters cost $50m because at that budget they knew they'd make money on it without even releasing it in theaters.

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Maxmoser3 Blockbuster

Maxmoser3

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Posted

Suicide Squad still leads but heavily bleeds as it leads the top spot once again this weekend. Sausage Party had a solid start for an R-rated comedy, while Pete's Dragon had a so-so start, and Florence Foster Jenkins debuted around expectations. Overall the top 12 was at $157.8 million which is up 16% from last year! It is also the best of the comparable weekends, and August could match 2014's gross!             Suicide Squad led the weekend with an estimated $43.7 million and had a drop around 67% this weekend which is just slightly better than Batman Vs. Superman's 69% drop earlier this year. Overall if Suicide Squad continues to have steep decline just like Batman Vs. Superman did, it will likely not reach $300

millon. A total for Suicide Squad right now seems more around $285 million domestic seems likely.         Sausage Party had an excellent start this weekend with an estimated $33.6 million which is the best debut for an original R-rated comedy in August, and the best debut for Seth Rogen since Neighbors back in 2014. Sausage Party should end its run over $100 million domestic total.                                 Disney's live-action remake Pete's Dragon had a so-so start with an estimated $21.5 million that debut is ahead of last month's bomb The BFG. But is well below Disney's bigger live-action blockbusters in recent years. Overall with a $65 million production budget and overseas Disney should have a decent little hit, and look for Pete's Dragon to end its run around $70 million.      Jason Bourne, Bad Moms, Secret Life Of Pets, and Star Trek:Beyond all had very solid holds this weekend! Look for Bourne to end its run around $165 million domestic. Bad Moms around $90 million domestic. Pets around $355 million domestic. Star Trek:Beyond around $160 million domestic.                                  The other new release, Florence Foster Jenkins had an alright start for actress Meryl Streep with an estimated $6.5 million which is roughly around the same field as Ricki And The Flash. But is below the debut of other adult-oriented driven films such as Julie & Julia, and The Hundred Foot Journey. It's hard to tell how well Florence Foster Jenkims plays in the weeks to come, look for a total around $20 million domestic. 

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BenedictL11 Box Office Gold

BenedictL11

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Suicide Squad still leads but heavily bleeds as it leads the top spot once again this weekend. Sausage Party had a solid start for an R-rated comedy, while Pete's Dragon had a so-so start, and Florence Foster Jenkins debuted around expectations. Overall the top 12 was at $157.8 million which is up 16% from last year! It is also the best of the comparable weekends, and August could match 2014's gross!             Suicide Squad led the weekend with an estimated $43.7 million and had a drop around 67% this weekend which is just slightly better than Batman Vs. Superman's 69% drop earlier this year. Overall if Suicide Squad continues to have steep decline just like Batman Vs. Superman did, it will likely not reach $300

millon. A total for Suicide Squad right now seems more around $285 million domestic seems likely.         Sausage Party had an excellent start this weekend with an estimated $33.6 million which is the best debut for an original R-rated comedy in August, and the best debut for Seth Rogen since Neighbors back in 2014. Sausage Party should end its run over $100 million domestic total.                                 Disney's live-action remake Pete's Dragon had a so-so start with an estimated $21.5 million that debut is ahead of last month's bomb The BFG. But is well below Disney's bigger live-action blockbusters in recent years. Overall with a $65 million production budget and overseas Disney should have a decent little hit, and look for Pete's Dragon to end its run around $70 million.      Jason Bourne, Bad Moms, Secret Life Of Pets, and Star Trek:Beyond all had very solid holds this weekend! Look for Bourne to end its run around $165 million domestic. Bad Moms around $90 million domestic. Pets around $355 million domestic. Star Trek:Beyond around $160 million domestic.                                  The other new release, Florence Foster Jenkins had an alright start for actress Meryl Streep with an estimated $6.5 million which is roughly around the same field as Ricki And The Flash. But is below the debut of other adult-oriented driven films such as Julie & Julia, and The Hundred Foot Journey. It's hard to tell how well Florence Foster Jenkims plays in the weeks to come, look for a total around $20 million domestic. 

Why are you only predicting $90M for Bad Moms? It will make it to that mark in 2 weeks. In fact, it will make it to $100M by the end of August. After all, it slipped only 18.4%. Competition for it is weak for the rest of the month. 

 

 Also, there's no way that Sausage party will finish more than Bad Moms with weaker WOM. #ByeFelicia

Edited by BenedictL11
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Outrageous! Indie Sensation

Outrageous!

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It'll do fine and have a long long life in ancillary. 

 

The budget is a very reasonable $60-65m. 

 

To put that budget in comparison Planes which they made as a DTV movie before belatedly deciding to release it theaters cost $50m because at that budget they knew they'd make money on it without even releasing it in theaters.

 

And when it comes to PG live-action Disney films like Pete's Dragon, and their future on TV, all you really need to remember is this:

 

Disney Channel

 

Movies like Pete's Dragon are sure to be aired a lot down the road a few years on Disney's TV channels to draw in big ratings for Disney on TV.  It is like a loop: Disney live-action movies help promote Disney TV channels when they air there, and then the Disney TV channels help promote the current Disney movies they are releasing.

Edited by Outrageous!
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