Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[excel1]

34 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

Well I obviously think SS will regroup next weekend. But then again what do I know?

 

But would this be possible?

 

Let's say Sunday is 13

 

Monday: 5.2 -60%

Tues: 6.5 +25%

Wed 4.6 -30%

Thurs 4.0 -8-10%

Fri: 7 +75%

Sat: 9.6 +37%

Sun: 6.8 -30%

 

23.4 mill third weekend 

 

Anyone agree?

 

40m 3rd weekend no doubt 

[druv10]

27 minutes ago, mredman said:

 

[mod edit]

You can't be serious. Nobody defended Civil War's legs, they were awful whetherit was WOM or limited fanbase but it did not have good legs.

[That One Girl]

Sausage Party lived up to the hype and then some.  Holy shit, that was one of the funniest movies I've seen in my life.

[miketheavenger]

Civil War definitely had pretty bad legs. The fact that it'll fall just short of IM3 domestic total despite opening $5m higher is kind of baffling considering its better reception and IM3 having bad legs, too.

[Ruthie]

6 hours ago, Ent said:

 

But what people are saying is that the bigger opening versus GOGT shouldn't be only attributed to the marketing which were on par as far as i ma conscerned.  

 

The discrepancy in the big opening of the DCEU movies so far is mainly due to better known characters that the ones you compared them to from the MCU at the time.

 

Harley Quinn, Batman and Joker were all advertised as major assets in it when there are no equivalent whatsoever in the GOtg.  

 

So your premise is a little flawn to expalin that the bigger opening is just due to a better marketing.  

 

A list characters versus Z list characters are major factor in the size of an opening weekend.  The marketing will stretch the appeal characters from their primal fanbase.  

 

GOTG fanbase pre marketing was basicly nil and they happened to stretch it to $90+m on totally unknown characters while SS had already a sizeable fanbase based on the recgnition of its characters.

 

People tend to forget or dismiss it but the DCEUmovies so far is based strictly on A list characters.  They started with their big guns and so far no Z list characters...none on par with those of GOTG pre release.

 

 

This is such a great post.  And it provides another example of the befuddlement that is the DCEU.  DC has everything it needs to fill the series with quality movies: the most recognizable characters in the world, characters with a looooooong history, a multi-year head start over Fox and Marvel, a climate in which comic book movies rule the roost, and a general audience willing to give each movie a fair shot.  And somehow DC has managed to mishandle all of it.  If they mess up Aquaman (and I'm already displeased that they will portray him as a dark-haired instead of as blond-haired, because his hair color meant something profound in the comic story line) then I'm done with them.

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, Ruthie said:

...I'm already displeased that they will portray him as a dark-haired instead of as blond-haired, because his hair color meant something profound in the comic story line...

 

This seems precariously close to those Tolkien fans outraged that Legolas wasn't dark-haired.

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, druv10 said:

You can't be serious. Nobody defended Civil War's legs, they were awful whetherit was WOM or limited fanbase but it did not have good legs.

I think it was a case of being the third superhero film in a row. The irony is that I believe that if it had BvS' release date, it'd have fared better at the BO. I expect some insane home video sales for that one tho. 

[EmpireCity]

42 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

Is this just because of the word of mouth? Is that why you think that? Or do you think then her and where dogs will cause it to fall more than 50%?

 

I think because of a combo of things.  The WOM isn't that strong, the reviews are bad, it has competition from new openers, etc....

 

A sub 50% drop in week 3 is something you hope for a good film with decent WOM, so putting that on a bad film with poor WOM isn't likely to happen.  

[Chaz]

4 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

This seems precariously close to those Tolkien fans outraged that Legolas wasn't dark-haired.

 

we've seen legolas' dark hair. down there.

 

daddy.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I think because of a combo of things.  The WOM isn't that strong, the reviews are bad, it has competition from new openers, etc....

 

A sub 50% drop in week 3 is something you hope for a good film with decent WOM, so putting that on a bad film with poor WOM isn't likely to happen.  

 

Hmmm, interesting.  I've been following box office religiously for about 25 years and the more I think I know or understand, the more I realize I don't.

 

Great post.  I'll keep that mind.  

[druv10]

20 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

I think it was a case of being the third superhero film in a row. The irony is that I believe that if it had BvS' release date, it'd have fared better at the BO. I expect some insane home video sales for that one tho. 

Maybe. Hard to say what caused such poor legs whether it was the 3rd SH movie or the WOM or maybe since it was 13th movie in the MCU. But you won't see me defending it's legs, they were bad.

[Ruthie]

22 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

This seems precariously close to those Tolkien fans outraged that Legolas wasn't dark-haired.

LOL!  OMGosh, you're right!  But, in my defense, Aquaman's hair color did play an important role in his story as well as provide a clever turn-of-phrase on social commentary. Legolas' hair just meant that he belonged to a certain group of elves. Don't ask me how I know any of that.  

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Ruthie said:

LOL!  OMGosh, you're right!  But, in my defense, Aquaman's hair color did play an important role in his story as well as provide a clever turn-of-phrase on social commentary. Legolas' hair just meant that he belonged to a certain group of elves. Don't ask me how I know any of that.  

 

Them's fightin' words, according to a diehard few.  

[4815162342]

31 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

This seems precariously close to those Tolkien fans outraged that Legolas wasn't dark-haired.

 

What about the physicists who were outraged?

[AJG]

48 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I actually like TASM2

 

[4815162342]

5 minutes ago, Ruthie said:

LOL!  OMGosh, you're right!  But, in my defense, Aquaman's hair color did play an important role in his story as well as provide a clever turn-of-phrase on social commentary. Legolas' hair just meant that he belonged to a certain group of elves. Don't ask me how I know any of that.  

 

#ethicsinnoldorculture

[Dementeleus]

Just now, 4815162342 said:

 

What about the physicists who were outraged?

 

<BANE> That comes later. </BANE>

[baumer]

IMO, ASM2 was pretty decent.  ASM was horrible.

[ecstasy]

1 hour ago, DAR said:

That's because it's an awful movie

Well that's a matter of opinion just like all the rest.

[Blaze Heatnix]

So, let's be pessimistic!!! I have that side too, yes.

 

Domestic numbers for SS before this weekend: 179.1 million.

 

So, I'll be pessimistic and make brutal predictions for the next 7 weekends for this movie. Sometimes we have to go way down! After weekend 8, movie stops playing!

 

 

Weekend 2: 40 million ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 3: 12 million ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 4: 3.6 million ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 5: 1.1 million ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 6: 120.000 ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 7: 36.000 ( 70% drop )

 

Weekend 8: 11.800 ( 70% drop )

 

Let's also imagine that this movie will only have more 24 weekdays ( only including Monday to Thursday, considering that the weekends are covered above my predictions ). Let's imagine the movie only makes 19 million in 24 weekdays left ( not counting weekends ).

 

So, we would have 40 + 12 + 3.6 + 1.1 + 120.000 + 36.000 + 11.800 = 56.867.800 million.    Now let's add 56.867.800 and 19 million. We would have 75.867.800 million.

 

 

So, SS final domestic numbers would be 179.1 million + 75.8 million = 254.9 million.  So, basically 255 million.

 

 

Sure, there's a chance I'm being dramatic and maybe this movie might drop even more. Or it could drop less and surprise all of us!