Labor Day Weekend Thread | 4 day #s - DB 19.5M, SS 12.8M, Pete 8.5M, Kubo 6.5M, SP 6M, Bad Moms 6M, War Dogs 6M, LBO 5.9M, Morgan 2.4M

[Maxmoser3]

The fall will be dominated by Magnificent 7, and Girl On The Train. Sully, Storks, and The Accountant are also very solid contenders. Jack Reacher 2, and Inferno are more summer releases than to be released in the fall. Kevin Hart's stand-up film could do alright numbers but nothing gigantic, stand-up films usually do 30 million or less domestic most of the time.   Madea Halloween, Rings, and Ouija 2 are sequels that really no one asked for and will flop hard. Blair Witch and Bridget Jones could do modest business at best. Deepwater Horizon just because Mark Wahlberg is in a film doesn't make it a big blockbuster. Miss peregrine's will make money overseas, Tim Burton/Eva Green are poison(even though Eva Green looks good naked). The rest who cares. Also forgot When The Bough Breaks but should do between $45-$50 million domestic total which is not for a thriller that has a low-budget.

[Maxmoser3]

Wow! Don't Breathe's second-weekend drop was even smaller than The Conjuring's drop(46%) back in July 2013.

[RichWS]

3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Wow! Don't Breathe's second-weekend drop was even smaller than The Conjuring's drop(46%) back in July 2013.

 

Ehhhh...not knocking the film's great WOM but this is a four-day weekend. Tough to compare.

[AHepBurn]

I say Fantastic Beasts in the $200-$299 range. That's it. 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Maxmoser3 said:

The fall will be dominated by Magnificent 7, and Girl On The Train. Sully, Storks, and The Accountant are also very solid contenders. Jack Reacher 2, and Inferno are more summer releases than to be released in the fall. Kevin Hart's stand-up film could do alright numbers but nothing gigantic, stand-up films usually do 30 million or less domestic most of the time.   Madea Halloween, Rings, and Ouija 2 are sequels that really no one asked for and will flop hard. Blair Witch and Bridget Jones could do modest business at best. Deepwater Horizon just because Mark Wahlberg is in a film doesn't make it a big blockbuster. Miss peregrine's will make money overseas, Tim Burton/Eva Green are poison(even though Eva Green looks good naked). The rest who cares. Also forgot When The Bough Breaks but should do between $45-$50 million domestic total which is not for a thriller that has a low-budget.

 

Madea will do about 55-60m it's audience has been severely underserved this year. So by no means a flop.

[DAR]

I'm amazed at film like Morgan.  Not because it opened so low but because I didn't see any advertising  in any capacity for it.  I figured a trailer would pop up in some YouTube vid I watched but nothing

[filmlover]

57 minutes ago, DAR said:

I'm amazed at film like Morgan.  Not because it opened so low but because I didn't see any advertising  in any capacity for it.  I figured a trailer would pop up in some YouTube vid I watched but nothing

Same. I only saw one ad for it altogether. Studio completely dumped it.

[DAJK]

Florence Foster Jenkins was pretty good.

[MikeQ]

Jason Bourne now sits at $378.1 million worldwide on a $120 million budget. It will probably hit $430+ million worldwide by the end of its run. It will be making a very good profit, and be one of the more profitable films of this summer.

 

That's a great labour day weekend expansion for Finding Dory. Based on how Toy Story 3 (and other Pixar films) did post labour day weekend, I expect Dory to end with about $487-488 million total. Very well done; it continues Pixar's success critically and financially. Another strong multiplier, particularly for having the largest opening weekend ever for an animated film and facing pretty stiff competition with Pets.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Pixar Movie OW Multipliers

 

90%+ RT Score Class

 

Finding Dory - 3.57 (Projected final multiplier: ~ 3.61)

Inside Out - 3.94

Toy Story 3 - 3.76

Up - 4.30

Wall-E - 3.55

Ratatouille - 4.39

The Incredibles - 3.71

Finding Nemo - 4.83

Monsters, Inc - 4.09

Toy Story 2 - 4.28 (using first wide weekend)

A Bug’s Life - 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide)

Toy Story - 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day)

 

The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies

 

The Good Dinosaur (76%) - 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day)

Monsters University (78%) - 3.26

Brave (78%) - 3.58

Cars 2 (39%) - 2.89

Cars (74%) - 4.06

[marveldcfox]

The real question is whether Ridley will sever his relation with fox after how they treated his son's film? Will he prefer to working with other studios after Prometheus 2 & 3 assuming the next one is any good and does well for a 3rd one.

[K1stpierre]

5 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Wow! Don't Breathe's second-weekend drop was even smaller than The Conjuring's drop(46%) back in July 2013.

 

It's legit slaying right now considering the type of film it is. It's glad to see not only a good horror movie (from what reviews show) for a change vs. the usual either gorefest or shitty jumpscare crap, but also one that is getting the money it deserves.

[a2k]

I removed the Wed openers and arranged them in descending order.

 

5 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Pixar Movie OW Multipliers

 

Finding Nemo - 4.83

Ratatouille - 4.39

Up - 4.30

Toy Story 2 - 4.28 (using first wide weekend)

Monsters, Inc - 4.09

Cars (74%) - 4.06

Inside Out - 3.94

Toy Story 3 - 3.76

The Incredibles - 3.71

Brave (78%) - 3.58

Wall-E - 3.55

Monsters University (78%) - 3.26

Cars 2 (39%) - 2.89

 

 

I like that Cars is >4x and Wall-E is not . Goes well with my taste.

Once the 'thu previews era' started, 4x was always gonna be difficult so it's great that IO made it so close.

Edited September 5, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

9 hours ago, RichWS said:

 

Ehhhh...not knocking the film's great WOM but this is a four-day weekend. Tough to compare.

 

Not to mention the July summer weekdays of CONJ taking away from the weekend.

CONJ: 41.9 ow, 19.9 Mon-Thu (47.5% of ow)

DB: 26.4 ow, 9 Mon-Thu (34% of ow)

 

[That One Girl]

I saw a couple of 5 second spots before YT videos for Morgan, nothing else.

[JennaJ]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Chris Pratt Effect.

 

Any movie he does these days, even ones in which he does during his time off from franchise films because working actor's gotta work, is probably gonna be expected to do bullish numbers around these parts.

 

Honestly I think that comes from the fact that his last three movies were (to different extents) break-out hits. By no means do I think he's the main cause, but when someone gets associated with movies that break out larger than expected, people make that connection.

Now if Mag7 and/or Passengers underperform, I assume people will adjust their expectations going forward. 

[kayumanggi]

WB projecting 20% SUN-to-MON drop for #SuicideSquad on #LaborDay. If estimate holds, it will smash $300M domestic tonight.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) September 5, 2016

[Napoleon]

10 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Jason Bourne now sits at $378.1 million worldwide on a $120 million budget. It will probably hit $430+ million worldwide by the end of its run. It will be making a very good profit, and be one of the more profitable films of this summer.

 

That's a great labour day weekend expansion for Finding Dory. Based on how Toy Story 3 (and other Pixar films) did post labour day weekend, I expect Dory to end with about $487-488 million total. Very well done; it continues Pixar's success critically and financially. Another strong multiplier, particularly for having the largest opening weekend ever for an animated film and facing pretty stiff competition with Pets.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Pixar Movie OW Multipliers

 

90%+ RT Score Class

 

Finding Dory - 3.57 (Projected final multiplier: ~ 3.61)

Inside Out - 3.94

Toy Story 3 - 3.76

Up - 4.30

Wall-E - 3.55

Ratatouille - 4.39

The Incredibles - 3.71

Finding Nemo - 4.83

Monsters, Inc - 4.09

Toy Story 2 - 4.28 (using first wide weekend)

A Bug’s Life - 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide)

Toy Story - 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day)

 

The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies

 

The Good Dinosaur (76%) - 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day)

Monsters University (78%) - 3.26

Brave (78%) - 3.58

Cars 2 (39%) - 2.89

Cars (74%) - 4.06

I never checked the RT score for Brave. Nice to see it was not as well reviewed as the good Pixar films.

[sfran43]

3mGitesh Pandya‏ @GiteshPandya

$19.6M 4day #LaborDay holiday wknd for #DontBreathe staying in #1 spot. Cume up to $55M heading to $80M+ off of $10M budget.

[grim22]

% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Don't Breathe	SGem	$19,550,000	-26.0%	3,051	-	$6,408	$54,972,952	$9.9	2
2	2	Suicide Squad	WB	$12,800,000	+4.5%	3,292	-290	$3,888	$300,217,209	$175	5
3	6	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$8,583,000	+15.3%	3,272	+28	$2,623	$66,334,939	$65	4
4	3	Kubo and the Two Strings	Focus	$8,537,000	+8.8%	2,985	-294	$2,860	$36,398,436	$60	3
5	4	Sausage Party	Sony	$6,500,000	-13.6%	2,766	-369	$2,350	$89,645,124	$19	4
6	7	War Dogs	WB	$6,025,000	-14.2%	2,848	-410	$2,116	$36,537,809	-	3
7	8	Bad Moms	STX	$6,000,000	+7.6%	2,306	-259	$2,602	$103,787,194	$20	6
8	N	The Light Between Oceans	BV	$5,910,000	-	1,500	-	$3,940	$5,910,000	$20	1
9	12	Hell or High Water	LGF	$5,600,000	+57.7%	1,303	+394	$4,298	$15,751,633	$12	4
10	5	Mechanic: Resurrection	LG/S	$5,550,000	-25.6%	2,258	-	$2,458	$15,692,786	-	2
11	9	Jason Bourne	Uni.	$5,019,040	-2.4%	1,976	-469	$2,540	$156,189,695	$120	6
12	N	No Manches Frida	LGF	$4,650,000	-	362	-	$12,845	$4,650,000	-	1
13	11	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$4,603,525	+18.7%	2,069	-22	$2,225	$359,611,015	$75	9
14	10	Ben-Hur (2016)	Par.	$2,800,000	-38.6%	2,167	-917	$1,292	$24,308,139	$100	3
15	13	Florence Foster Jenkins	Par.	$2,710,000	-8.7%	1,341	+17	$2,021	$24,090,919	-	4
16	18	Finding Dory	BV	$2,600,000	+311.3%	2,075	+1,730	$1,253	$482,521,069	-	12
17	N	Morgan	Fox	$2,430,000	-	2,020	-	$1,203	$2,430,000	$8	1
18	16	Hands of Stone	Wein.	$1,608,000	-8.2%	2,011	+1,201	$800	$4,025,207	-	2
19	20	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony	$1,395,000	+152.0%	1,091	+657	$1,279	$126,570,627	$144	8
20	21	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	$950,000	+86.1%	692	+237	$1,373	$62,856,030	$105	7
21	22	Nerve	LGF	$826,000	+62.1%	761	+306	$1,085	$37,775,023	-	6
22	24	Don't Think Twice	TFA	$569,038	+30.1%	165	+15	$3,449	$3,103,667	-	7
23	27	The BFG	BV	$411,000	+30.9%	220	-15	$1,868	$54,842,187	$140	10
24	25	Cafe Society	LGF	$375,000	+11.3%	190	-26	$1,974	$10,539,571	-	8
25	45	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	QF	$312,000	+461.8%	404	+324	$772	$12,819,181	-	8
26	26	Equity	SPC	$266,289	-18.8%	221	-34	$1,205	$1,320,935	-	6
27	43	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$182,000	+181.0%	391	+279	$465	$103,081,053	$165	11
28	39	A Tale of Love and Darkness	Focus	$172,000	+49.5%	66	+40	$2,606	$387,667	-	3
29	N	Naam Hai Akira	FIP	$167,000	-	71	-	$2,352	$167,000	-	1
30	50	The Hollars	SPC	$134,954	+253.2%

[filmlover]

Morgan's PTA is lower than that of Finding Dory, Ghostbusters, and Ice Age. Considering those three were only played 1-2 times a day at most theaters, that's hilariously pathetic.