Weekend Thread | Saturday Asgrard pg 28 or 29 DS 32 Trolls 19 HR 5.8

[misafeco]

34 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Why?

Argo did $5.9m OD and 19.4 OW.

Hacksaw Ridge multiplier over the weekend was too low for a movie with amazing WOM...

But it does have amazing WOM.

[MCKillswitch123]

It seems I got some flack for saying Strange would struggle for 600M WW. Let me start by saying that, despite the 85M opening, I wasn't aware that the movie had already made 240 or something M OS and was at 300M+ WW. So knowing that NOW, no question it's making it to the mark.

 

That being said, I still maintain that Fantastic Beasts is SO not gonna be good for its legs.

[Fullbuster]

22 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

Avengers opening weekend was split 50% over 25 and 50% under and that's a higher than normal under 25 split for Marvel films which equates to $103.5m+ for the over 25 demo.

 

Deadline disputes the 67% over 25 for Strange.  It has the number at 58% which is more in line with other MCU films

 

http://deadline.com/2016/11/doctor-strange-trolls-hacksaw-ridge-weekend-box-office-1201848529/

 

 

Other breakdowns:

 

 

 

 

Well, you got me But I feel things are different here in France when it comes to CBM.

[Haley Ross]

11 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That being said, I still maintain that Fantastic Beasts is SO not gonna be good for its legs.

 

I agree with that only if the reviews are very strong. If they're weak, without Harry Potter to offset them, I don't see FB doing much damage. This is on top of the fact that Strange has such strong reviews of its own.

[Chewy]

25 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Not sure why Strange would merely have Thor 2 legs. WOM among casual audiences is pretty damn strong for a CBM.

 

Yea as we've seen time and again the Marvel movies that aren't sequels tend to have stronger legs

[MovieMan89]

If DS was going to have significantly stronger legs than Thor 2 I don't see why it would already be off to a worse start in terms of IM (2.61x estimate vs 2.68x for Thor 2)? MCU is just super frontloaded now, I really don't think 2.5x+ is achievable anymore unless you get a disappointing OW like Ant-Man.  Had AM opened to this much it would have likely finished with a  weak multi instead of such a strong one. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by MovieMan89

[trifle]

Well, don't say anything too specific about Dr Strange here, please.  My plans to see it this evening just fell through so I am now avoiding the main thread until I get a chance to see it.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

Dammit, now I really have hope for Spiderman Homecoming, Black Panther and GOTG2, 2017 will be a fantastic year for Marvel, once again

 

Thor 3 comes out late 2017.

 

Black Panther, early 2018.

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Thor 3 comes out late 2017.

 

Black Panther, early 2018.

 

Weird, I was sure BP would come out in 2017, they changed the release date? Well, here we go for THOR 3 then ^^

[Jake Gittes]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If DS was going to have significantly stronger legs than Thor 2 I don't see why it would already be off to a worse start in terms of IM (2.61x estimate vs 2.68x for Thor 2)? MCU is just super frontloaded now, I really don't think 2.5x+ is achievable anymore unless you get a disappointing OW like Ant-Man.  Had AM opened to this much it would have likely finished with a  weak multi instead of such a strong one. 

 

Thor 2 is kind of a weird anomaly when it comes to recent Marvel IMs. Most of them fall in between 2.5x and 2.6x, with all kinds of legs afterwards. Like Thor 2 had a stronger IM than Cap 2, which also opened outside of summer, and we all saw how much better the latter did. 

[Mr Terrific]

Ant-Man did a 3.1 just last year 

GOTG did well over 3x. 

IM well over 3x. 

Cap and Thor did about 2.7x. 

Hulk did 2.4x. 

 

2.5 + seems really likely. 

[Brainiac5]

26 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Weird, I was sure BP would come out in 2017, they changed the release date? Well, here we go for THOR 3 then ^^

IT was, they pushed it back in favor of the Spiderman deal with Sony.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Brainiac5

[Fullbuster]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

IT was they pushed it back in favor of the spiderman deal with Sony.

 

That makes sense, they must introduce Spidey in the MCU ASAP, Black Panther has already been introduced in Civil War

[MovieMan89]

18 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

Ant-Man did a 3.1 just last year 

GOTG did well over 3x. 

IM well over 3x. 

Cap and Thor did about 2.7x. 

Hulk did 2.4x. 

 

2.5 + seems really likely. 

Those last 4 are way too old to have any relevance, box office pattern has shifted too much for the genre. As I said already, AM wouldn't have had a good multi with this high of an OW. It's OW was as weak as it gets for MCU and as such allowed for some actual WOM to show in the legs. As for GOTG, that was a true WOM phenomenon with the general public not just the MCU base, and I don't think DS is the same kind of film. I think it's much more Civil War in that all the established base will love it but everyone else isn't going to be convinced. 2.6x multi tops. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Mr Terrific]

You dismissed the the two most recent debuts and six debuts overall because this movie is most like the a threequel. 

Little arbitrary. 

 

Edit - Avengers was 3x. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Mr Terrific

[James]

1 hour ago, Haley Ross said:

 

I agree with that only if the reviews are very strong. If they're weak, without Harry Potter to offset them, I don't see FB doing much damage. This is on top of the fact that Strange has such strong reviews of its own.

I'm not saying I don't want strong reviews for FB, but you really think the Potter fanbase, one of the most fanatic ones ever, will give a damn about reviews. Even if it is a horrendous movie it will still easily make 600m WW. But early WOM is very positive. So I doubt it endS under 80% on RT. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by James

[fabiopazzo2]

200 ml at THE end of the run for ds 

[moviesRus]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Those last 4 are way too old to have any relevance, box office pattern has shifted too much for the genre. As I said already, AM wouldn't have had a good multi with this high of an OW. It's OW was as weak as it gets for MCU and as such allowed for some actual WOM to show in the legs. As for GOTG, that was a true WOM phenomenon with the general public not just the MCU base, and I don't think DS is the same kind of film. I think it's much more Civil War in that all the established base will love it but everyone else isn't going to be convinced. 2.6x multi tops. 

 

I mean, I don't think this is going to get a 3x or anything but I don't see how it's at all similar to Civil War, which would make absolutely no sense and have no meaning at all to a newcomer.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

I mean, I don't think this is going to get a 3x or anything but I don't see how it's at all similar to Civil War, which would make absolutely no sense and have no meaning at all to a newcomer.

It's more similar to a sequel like Thor 2 or Cap 2 than it is an Thor 1/Cap1/Ant-Man judging by that OW. GOTG isn't a good comparison for anything, that move was its own separate beast. 

[moviesRus]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's more similar to a sequel like Thor 2 or Cap 2 than it is an Thor 1/Cap1/Ant-Man judging by that OW. GOTG isn't a good comparison for anything, that move was its own separate beast. 

 

Having see Dr Strange, I think it's more separate/standalone than GOTG even.