Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[SoSaysI]

11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

It's a major red flag towards massive RO expectations. Baumer's club is very much in play.

Maybe but people also used Jurassic World and the Force Awakens success to project that Independence Day would do huge numbers this year. 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

 

I asked a question, did I say fantastic Beasts was going to bomb? No. Thanks for playing.

 

 

And I answered your question, and looks like I am absolutely correct in what I told you, yet for whatever reason you called me out as if I was wrong about something.  

 

Now of course you don't want to address it or talk about it.  Huh.... wonder why that is?  What was I wrong about in my response to you?

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

This is a spin off. This is a film that exist in the same universe but is not the Harry Potter that everyone knows and loves. This was never destined to do big numbers that people were predicting.

 

Sounds like some other film......

 

True baumer. I guess it's easy for us to think that general audiences are as clued up as us movie nerds are. 

I still expected this to open to at least $90 million domestic though. I thought the Potter fans would throw up a huge preview number that would prop up the weekend. 

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, Michael Gary Scott said:

This opening has nothing to do with how Rogue One will perform. 

 

Spin off from a popular franchise that was hyped well beyond tracking. No similarities at all, got it.

[FishMB]

I disagree with just about everything I'm reading here. It's been obvious for awhile now that casual Potter fans simply did not have this on their radar as a must see. I was not surprised to see my theatre dead last night.

 

However... WOM will catch on. I've seen an unusually positive swath of tweets. It demands a second viewing for the studious fan. I think $200 mil is safe and sound.

 

The sequels are in great shape. Once Dumbledore is re-introduced and Hogwarts gets a shot in a trailer, we'll be looking at a $100 mil opener again. Have faith. 

 

 

[kswiston]

2 minutes ago, Nutella of Arabia said:

So the Potter movieverse now has its Hobbit. 

 

The (first) Hobbit did over 80% of RotK's worldwide take and about 80% of RotK domestically. 

 

At best, this is Potter's Puss in Boots. 

[EmpireCity]

20 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Where is @EmpireCity to tell all of us pessimists we're wrong again. lmao what a weak preview.

 

Here is your post again if you forgot.  What exactly were you going out of your way to call me out about? 

 

The only thing with Fantastic Beasts we have ever discussed is you asked if this could bomb and I said no.  That is it.  So what were you calling me out about again?

[Deep Wang]

Man, am I ready for the presales to start and get some numbers so we can put some of this speculation behind us.

[grey ghost]

Rogue One is either going to be a perfect storm mega break out or be the biggest disappointment of the year.

 

There is no inbetween. 

[Fullbuster]

52 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Yikes.  Pre-sales were a lot stronger than Dr. Strange and at least what I can see did great last night but across the country walk ups must have been extremely weak.  

 

Still will be a success overall, but wonder if this makes Warner Bros. do a double take.  

 

5 movies could be a bit too much, 3 movies would be fine.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Dbot1800 said:

 

Hope this does ok.

[Dementeleus]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

So are you going to actually address how you are wrong on what you said or are you going to flail around like a child about a completely different and unrelated topic that is a month away from release?

 

Moderation:

 

Please settle down. No need to insult.

[Nova]

I mean are we really comparing the Star Wars franchise to Harry Potter though? The last Star Wars movie made about double what a typical Harry Potter movie makes WW and triple what a Harry Potter movie makes in the states. 

 

I just don't see how you can compare Rogue One to FB as a result. They're both spin offs. That's where the comparison ends. 

[terrestrial]

33 minutes ago, Heretic said:

25m OD would be so underwhelming. Where is everyone? 

lying in bed, broken ankle

 

25 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Even a $60m opening isn't a bomb for this as it will and is performing very well overseas, but it certainly might make Warner Bros. go back to a 3 film series.  

 

What might even help later on, as according to some buzz a few fans were  a bit  miffed about the change to 5 films (read also here at BOT)

 

18 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Where is @EmpireCity to tell all of us pessimists we're wrong again. lmao what a weak preview.

 

he /  she was already here

 

16 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

I blame Pokemon

Only if not meant seriously...

 

 

Any impressions which age FB skes?

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

You can do that with almost anything in life Jay. If you honestly think this number means NOTHING in forecasting RO, then I can't help you.

 

 

It could mean that Rogue One is having the "TFA effect" suppressing movie box offices in Nov as everyone is saving money for Rogue one right?

Edited November 18, 2016 by NCsoft

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Rogue One is either going to be a perfect storm mega break out or be the biggest disappointment of the year.

 

There is no inbetween. 

 

My expectations for Rogue One are not high : $400m DOM and $1B WW and I'll be totally fine with that That shouldn't be too hard to do.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, FishMB said:

I disagree with just about everything I'm reading here. It's been obvious for awhile now that casual Potter fans simply did not have this on their radar as a must see. I was not surprised to see my theatre dead last night.

 

However... WOM will catch on. I've seen an unusually positive swath of tweets. It demands a second viewing for the studious fan. I think $200 mil is safe and sound.

 

The sequels are in great shape. Once Dumbledore is re-introduced and Hogwarts gets a shot in a trailer, we'll be looking at a $100 mil opener again. Have faith. 

 

 

No doubt WB will ensure the trailer features just that... For sure!

 

[water]

Just now, kswiston said:

 

The (first) Hobbit did over 80% of RotK's worldwide take and about 80% of RotK domestically. 

 

At best, this is Potter's Puss in Boots. 

 

the first hobbit did about 60% of rotk adjusted, this will do about 40% of dh2 adjusted

[GiantCALBears]

 
And I answered your question, and looks like I am absolutely correct in what I told you, yet for whatever reason you called me out as if I was wrong about something.  
 
Now of course you don't want to address it or talk about it.  Huh.... wonder why that is?  What was I wrong about in my response to you?

Address what? I don't even know what you are talking about. If you were pessimistic on here on FB you will be closer than those (like you) who were optimistic. End of discussion.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Rogue One is either going to be a perfect storm mega break out or be the biggest disappointment of the year.

 

There is no inbetween. 

 

If R1 disappoints its core audience the same way this did (and, for that matter, THE HOBBIT did), then yes, of course Baumer's club becomes a likely success. But one new would-be franchise failing to meet expectations doesn't automatically translate to the same thing happening with another.