⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

[eridani]

It seems I have to correct myself. I previously said google trends aren't in favor of Dune, compared to Blade Runner. But It seems I did the search wrong, with searching for terms for one and topics for other. Now when i am careful to search for Dune movie and Blade runner movie (and Alita movie for comparison) i get these results:

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=blade runner movie,Dune movie,alita movie

 

Years prior to BR2049 movie search frequency was between 1:1 and 1:3 in favor of Dune. Alita was basically nowhere to be found.

As news of BR2049 filming started coming, BR went up to being equal or somewhat more searched than Dune. 

before Dune movie news started appearing, the ratios went again to be similar for Dune and BR.

Alita, of course, went up near its release date. Actually it went up slightly more than BR ever did when BR2049 went out. Who knows why but maybe Alita fans behave differently from BR fans and search more frequently, per viewer.

 

Anyway, BR2049 had an opening of 33 million and 92 M domestic total. 167 M more overseas. (it had a budget of 150 million, though. I was off by 20 million before)

 

As we know, Alita had equivalent of a 3 day opening of some ~30 million.  It's heading for 85 million domestically and another 320 M overseas.

 

So... given the somewhat higher popularity of Dune movie concept compared to Alita movie and BR movie concept, and using the search ratio differences, it may be plausible to expect Dune might open with at least the same kind numbers, on the low side, and perhaps double those numbers on the high side. The high profile cast that's being assembled might also help additionally.

 

I wouldn't be against a 50 million opening myself, though anything over 100 seems just out of the reach. It really depends on the trailers. If it's sold as an action adventure, it might open well. If it's sold as a thinking person's sci fi drama, then it won't do so well.

 

Overseas sales are hard to deduce but even around the world Dune movie concept is more searched than BR or Alita. Though Hong Kong and China results show a more similar search preference for Dune to other concepts. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dune does worse than Alita in China...

 

To sum it up, if somehow budget for Dune could be kept around 100 million, there may be a chance of a sequel. Personally, I don't see how can a quality made Dune movie be made for that kind of money, but that's just me...

[MrGlass2]

15 minutes ago, eridani said:

It seems I have to correct myself. I previously said google trends aren't in favor of Dune, compared to Blade Runner. But It seems I did the search wrong, with searching for terms for one and topics for other. Now when i am careful to search for Dune movie and Blade runner movie (and Alita movie for comparison) i get these results:

It is a bit pointless to use GoogleTrends for box office predictions before the marketing of a blockbuster has started. Soon searches related to the movie will dwarf everything else. And the popularity of a book, comics or video game only gives a vague idea about the possible success of its adaptation in theaters.

[lilmac]

Worried about the mainstream appeal of this film but hope they're not cutting corners.

[Merkel]

I've posted this elsewhere, and I'll repost it here:

 

I know what Villeneuve has said in the pass concerning back-to-back shooting of the two movies, but I'm not convinced. I still believe he is shooting both movies simultaneously. Here's why:

 

1 - The very long shooting schedule: this one began shooting more that 1 year and half before release. Blade Runner 2049, for example, with the same director e and similar crew, started shooting in July and was released in October in the following year, and was surely also an extremely complex shoot. Dune has a 6 months lead compared to Blade Runner between start of the shoot and release date. This suggests a longer shooting period and therefore the possibility of two movies

 

2 - The Cast: characters that have nearly insignificant roles in the first part of the novel, like Stilgar and Chani, have been cast with actors with quite a considerable public profile. I doubt the casting of the two characters would be announced if they didn't feature considerably in the shoot.

 

3 - Cost effective - with so many locations, settings and characters shared between the two halves of the book, a back-to-back shoot would make much more financial sense, I think. Otherwise, sets like the Arrakeen Palace would have to be left standing for a prolonged period of time awaiting the start of the shoot of the second part.

 

4 - If the casting of Irulan or Shaddam IV is announced in the next few weeks, I think that will give us a very strong indication that the two parts are indeed being shot back-to-back

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, Merkel said:

The very long shooting schedule: this one began shooting more that 1 year and half before release

This is very normal for any WB film that costs more than $100m. Wonder Woman 2 started shooting 2 years before release

[Merkel]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

This is very normal for any WB film that costs more than $100m. Wonder Woman 2 started shooting 2 years before release

 

True, it can apply to both Wonder Woman and Aquaman. Like I said, BR 2049 had a much tighter production schedule, and the next Nolan movie, that comes out 4 moths before Dune, hasn't even begun shooting yet. Fantastic Beasts, that had a slightly earlier release date in the same month as Dune, began shooting in July of the year before.

[JGAR4LIFE]

Godzilla: King of the Monsters filmed in summer 2017, and it’s finally coming out in May. Nowadays that seems like the norm for some blockbusters.

[Valonqar]

Search trends mean nothing at this stage. it's all down to previews and even response to previews (viewing count etc can be deceiving). I just want to point out that according to search and trailer views, etc, AoU should have made JW money and JW shouldn't have hit 1B. And yet despite Internet favoring AoU by a large margin, JW absolutely destroyed it. 

 

So what will happen with Dune we'll know in 2020 when previews start popping up. Fans of the book will be there but whether GA will bite remains to be seen. If the previews are as icy as BR2049 (all cold visuals but no emotional engagement) than no. 

[Panda]

13 hours ago, lilmac said:

Worried about the mainstream appeal of this film but hope they're not cutting corners.

I feel the same, the movie is going to be really strange and sort of 'out there' for normies. I see it doing even worse than BR2049 :(

[Ithil]

12 hours ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters filmed in summer 2017, and it’s finally coming out in May. Nowadays that seems like the norm for some blockbusters.

That one was intended to have a very long post-production either way, even before the delay from March 2019 to May 2019.

[shayhiri]

5 hours ago, Ithil said:

That one was intended to have a very long post-production either way, even before the delay from March 2019 to May 2019.

 

LOL, why the hell did they move it?

 

March was criminally empty - and in May this will get slaughtered to pieces.

[tomknff]

7 hours ago, Panda said:

I feel the same, the movie is going to be really strange and sort of 'out there' for normies. I see it doing even worse than BR2049

Warner will market this as the next LORT or GOT, and people will come in expecting some 'out there' things.

[JGAR4LIFE]

7 hours ago, shayhiri said:

 

LOL, why the hell did they move it?

 

March was criminally empty - and in May this will get slaughtered to pieces.

Getting off topic here but because it’s worthy of being a summer blockbuster (the news articles themselves said that), and you’re just worried that it will slaughter Aladdin

[Valonqar]

On 3/22/2019 at 10:14 PM, Merkel said:

 

2 - The Cast: characters that have nearly insignificant roles in the first part of the novel, like Stilgar and Chani, have been cast with actors with quite a considerable public profile. I doubt the casting of the two characters would be announced if they didn't feature considerably in the shoot.

 

Well, Chani appears in Paul's vision "Tell me about your homeworld, Usul" (her most famous quote) and Stilgar pays the visit to Duke Leto (the spitting scene) so they have to be announced even if their roles are small in the first part. Also, it depends where they cut the part 1 but I suspect it'll be when Paul and Jessica find Stilgar and the Fremen in the desert. so Stil and Chani should have at least that extra scene in Pt 1. That doesn't deny back to back filming nor supports it. it's just what it is.

 

it's interesting to me that both Dune adaptations (Lunch and Sy Fy mini) didn't translate well despite different approach taken with each, while Children of Dune (and Dune Messiah that's basically part 1 of CoD mini) translated terrifically well despite being made by the same team that adapted Dune. Wonder if Zimmer who I love will top CoD magnificent score. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Watched the old movie on Netflix. Some interesting stuff and I liked the first half. After that everything was rushed and by the end of it I really didn't care about any of the characters. 

 

This cast and director looks promising. Hopefully they get both parts into cinemas even if the first one bombs. 

[Valonqar]

I found the blue within blue eyes annoying in all versions. It just doesn't work. Also, both Dune versions have leaden pacing which I blame on slavish faithfulness to the source. Movies need some streamlining since movie is a different medium than the book. Jackson got that right with LOTR.  

Edited March 25, 2019 by Valonqar

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

More Patrick Stewart could have helped I think.

 

[filmlover]

Without any footage to go on I think the advantage this has over Blade Runner 2049 in terms of financial success is that it's basically gonna be sold as an original thing, whereas that movie was clearly a sequel to a movie that was always a cult hit at best after flopping upon release (which was back when the sequel's star was still in diapers). WB giving this the weekend before Thanksgiving launch certainly seems like a big sign of confidence, especially when the only major competition is currently The Eternals (which will be big but whether it'll be another Captain Marvel or another Doctor Strange remains to be seen) and a currently under wraps animated Disney movie (there's also a Dwayne Johnson action movie that month but as Baywatch and Skyscraper just showed, he's not infallible). 

[Valonqar]

yes but disadvantage is that it won't have proper ending since it's only part one. And first half is much more talky and world building and could be confusing. It's like the political/trade part of TPM. And it's also lacking the sandworm riding money shots (though sandworm riding isn't nearly as cool looking as dragon riding so that's something to think about too). 

 

Also, signs of confidence are relative. Studio may be confident and then find out audience didn't connect. they were confident in BR2049 too. 

 

IMO, if they want a hit, they have to make the characters talk, act and feel like human beings. neither Dune adaptation succeeded in that regard (but Children of Dune did). Book can get away with it but movie can't. As Harrison Ford said, you can write that shit, George, but you can't say it.  Dune has amazing quotes that are absolutely deathly as a part of movie dialog. I hope they take liberties as you can remain faithful to the spirit of the source without putting every page A-Z on screen in unchanged form.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Valonqar

[shayhiri]

3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

yes but disadvantage is that it won't have proper ending since it's only part one. And first half is much more talky and world building and could be confusing. It's like the political/trade part of TPM. And it's also lacking the sandworm riding money shots (though sandworm riding isn't nearly as cool looking as dragon riding so that's something to think about too).

 

You keep admitting yourself that this project is a BAD idea.

 

Why do you want it to happen?

 

It can not happen, as a successful movie, even if it was a good idea. (Because there is no audience for a 200m budgeted movie like this.) But it is bad. So?

Edited March 25, 2019 by shayhiri