Weekend numbers. Moana 28.3 | FB 18.5 | Arrival 7.3 | Allied 7 | DS 6.8 | Trolls 4.6 | Hacksaw 3.4

[chrisman0606]

5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Sony didn't provide any est. it seems, no The Magnificent 7, Inferno,... neither

Other distributors also do not/didn't give weekend / Friday estimates, depending on what/how much they offer actually.

Sony year is sure not going that well, lets hope Passengers does good.

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Sony didn't provide any est. it seems, no The Magnificent 7, Inferno,... neither

Other distributors also do not/didn't give weekend / Friday estimates, depending on what/how much they offer actually.

 

Yeah, none of Sonys movies were above 15k yesterday. Not worth reporting those numbers.

[La Binoche]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Haven't seen the film, but I say best of luck to her even getting the nom. Stone and Portman are locks, Bening and Adams are Oscar darlings and therefore near-locks, and the academy wouldn't dare exclude Negga after last year's controversy, especially if Edgerton gets the nom. 

 

Huppert is 100% in. She just won BA at Gotham and NYFCC. She has two hugely acclaimed, very different performances out during Oscar season this year ("Elle" and "Thing to Come") on top of a hugely acclaimed career that has never been rewarded by an Oscar nom. Her overdue factor is huge. And she has SPC's backing. SPC's first ever release, Howards End, won Emmay Thompson BA. This decade alone they've won BA for Cate Blanchett and Julianne Moore. They know now to work the BA campaign. 

Edited December 3, 2016 by La Binoche

[babz06]

28 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

Sony year is sure not going that well, lets hope Passengers does good.

Their year is actually fine, not great but not horrible and they are actually in profit. Plenty of hits:Sausage Party, Angry Birds, Don't Breath, The Shallows. No huge money-loser with the exception of Ghostbusters, which cost too much. Mag 7 probably cost too much as well(90m) but it performed well for a Western in today's market (93m DOM) . Billy lynn is not going to hurt their pockets considering it cost a meesly 40m, and Inferno's overseas grosses saved it, that budget was also manageable (75m). Passengers i believe cost 120m, so again not too expensive and they should make the budget back domestically at the very least.

2017 looks decent for them: Spiderman:Homecoming, and Jumanji should both be huge; Rock That Body,  The Dark Tower and Emoji could be break out hits. 

It's not all doom and gloom over there even though it seems like it because they have no huge IP properties, they actually look like a  "normal" movie studio making different genres and types of films. 

[La Binoche]

 Nocturnal Animals earned around $196k (-32%)in 127 theaters for a likely $636k (-24%) third weekend and $2.655m cume. The Focus Features release, starring Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Shannon, expands next weekend. 

 

Not doing great PTA wise but a good hold from last week. The word of mouth must be pretty solid. Audience score on RT is good for such a cold and bleak movie. 

[yjs]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-projections-moana-fantastic-beasts-incarnate-manchester-by-the-sea/

 

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Moana	$29,000,000	-49%	3,875	0	$7,484	$120,515,330	2	Disney
2	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	$16,000,000	-65%	3,988	-156	$4,012	$180,962,403	3	Warner Bros.
3	Arrival	$7,200,000	-37%	2,915	473	$2,470	$72,978,514	4	Paramount
4	Allied	$7,000,000	-45%	3,160	0	$2,215	$28,877,432	2	Paramount
5	Doctor Strange	$6,500,000	-53%	2,935	-73	$2,215	$215,323,177	5	Disney
6	Trolls	$4,500,000	-58%	3,156	-166	$1,426	$141,271,445	5	Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7	Hacksaw Ridge	$3,400,000	-38%	2,494	162	$1,363	$57,264,956	5	Lionsgate
8	Bad Santa 2	$3,000,000	-51%	2,945	25	$1,019	$14,001,043	2	Broad Green Pictures
9	Almost Christmas	$2,400,000	-58%	1,556	-213	$1,542	$38,047,150	4	Universal
10	Incarnate	$2,100,000	—	1,737	—	$1,209	$2,100,000	1	High Top / BH Tilt
11	The Edge of Seventeen	$1,700,000	-43%	1,608	-337	$1,057	$12,808,490	3	STX Entertainment
12	Rules Don’t Apply	$670,000	-58%	2,386	4	$281	$3,437,655	2	20th Century Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Manchester By the Sea	$2,000,000	63%	156	108	$12,821	$4,059,943	3	Roadside / Amazon
2	The Accountant	$760,000	-27%	608	52	$1,250	$84,255,470	8	Warner Bros.
3	Believe (2016)	$480,000	—	639	—	$751	$480,000	1	Freestyle Releasing
4	Bleed for This	$280,000	-70%	649	-900	$431	$4,832,190	3	Open Road

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Jackie	$260,000	—	5	—	$52,000	$260,000	1	Fox Searchlight
2	Lion	$86,000	-30%	7	3	$12,286	$245,148	2	Weinstein Company
3	Miss Sloane	$35,000	-41%	4	1	$8,750

[La Binoche]

Miss Sloane added a single theater in advance of its wide (or semi-wide) release next weekend. The EuropaCorp release earned $11,426 yesterday (-54%) for a likely $35.2k (-41%) weekend and $114.2k 10-day cume. 

 

Terrible for a movie that cost $18m to produce and at least $30m with P&A (the TV spots are always playing and the online ads are everywhere). Chastain is great but she needs to choose her directors more carefully. John Madden? Wtf. 

[Xavier]

I am disappointed by a 16m weekend for Fantastic Beasts. Isn't this number a little conservative?

[yjs]

4 minutes ago, Xavier said:

I am disappointed by a 16m weekend for Fantastic Beasts. Isn't this number a little conservative?

it is, think it will go over $18M.

[Lumos]

The fuck is wrong with some of these box office analaysts? Yesterday DHD predicting 23m for FB....now some other website predicting 16m when its pretty clear this heading for at least 17m probably closer to 18m. 

[WrathOfHan]

Regarding Best Actress, it's a matter of figuring out if Streep or Bening gets the fifth spot. Portman, Stone, Adams, and Huppert are locked IMO

[BadAtGender]

Gonna check out Trolls. 

[DAJK]

Trailer for Spectral (that movie that was supposed to come out in August but is instead a Netflix release) looks really really cool actually. Defs gonna check it out.

[Fancyarcher]

4 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

The movie sounds like a rare biopic that's actually ambitious and interesting, which ironically makes it more likely to be divisive especially in the industry. 

 

Stone has basically every advantage except that she's playing an original character... but I don't think that'll be enough to stop her from winning.

 

Stone playing an original character, definitely shouldn't stop her from winning. Her performance has been raved, plus I've seen the film, and I she's terrific in it.

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Lumos said:

The fuck is wrong with some of these box office analaysts? Yesterday DHD predicting 23m for FB....now some other website predicting 16m when its pretty clear this heading for at least 17m probably closer to 18m. 

 

Multipliers seem off for all the top 5 films

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Multipliers seem off for all the top 5 films

what multiplier would you use for Fantastic Beasts?

[TalismanRing]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

what multiplier would you use for Fantastic Beasts?

 

Around 3.5

 

 

[SteveJaros]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

It's projected to drop about 47% post Thanksgiving while Frozen dropped 53%, Tangled dropped -55.7% and Toy Story 2 dropped 51.7%. FB is dropping about 61%

 

After this w/e Moana is $25m+ higher than Tangled that finished with $200m and $5m+ higher than Toy Story 2 which finished with $245m.

 

Moanoa's 2nd wide weekend  is projected to be 40% higher than Tangled and about 10% higher than TS2.   Tangled went on to make post this w/e $104m more and TS2 $130m more. 

 

If it only made as much as either of those two movies going forward without accounting for it's larger weekend and better holds it would finish at $225-250m.   It will make more.

 

 

 

I like your presentation here. I don't feel the same momentum for Moana that those films had - even Tangled, which got a lot of shine because it was a Disney animation release at a time when Disney's own brand was still regarded as being in a slump, a weak sister to  Pixar's. 

 

But we shall see, and if you're right, I'll tip my hat. 

[Joel M]

Lion and Miss Sloane seem both DOA. They're probably out of the oscar race after these results.

[4815162342]

43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Regarding Best Actress, it's a matter of figuring out if Streep or Bening gets the fifth spot. Portman, Stone, Adams, and Huppert are locked IMO

 

Negga.