ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[eddyxx]

11 minutes ago, straggler said:

So Rogue One had a Hunger Games opening.  

 

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Yep

So Star Wars opened up in the ballpark of a YA film

[Fullbuster]

I still didn't watch it, not motivated even if I know I'll like it. I'll probably watch it during January's first week. The movie won't disappear anyway, and if many people think like me then the legs could be pretty good

[Cochofles]

Call me fucking crazy, but I want Hollywood to always do bombastic, F/X-heavy films about badass amazonian demigodesses fighting ancient war deities while the fate of the entire world is at stake as much as intimate films about an Appalachian coal miner facing mundane, "boring" challenges like divorce, death, and depression. We can most certainly have both (I would say we NEED both types of fims), and sorry, but I do believe that the small, intimate stories are as powerful and impactful as the grandiose, grand ones.

We don't have to get rid of either type of filmmaking. That would be sooo myopic...

[baumer]

Only chance i have at under 150 is if it drops like Hobbitseses on Sunday.

[Lordmandeep]

15 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Only chance i have at under 150 is if it drops like Hobbitseses on Sunday.

hmm Presales look pretty solid for a non summer Sunday.

 

I called for a 46 million Saturday.

 

 

Likely go with 37 million Sunday after actuals -20%

[terrestrial]

56 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Nothing is impossible for Star Wars when the Force helps it

The Force helped last year with perfect for it weather, but not this year, with partly not helping weather (the, not huge I think, impact might vary between the weekend-days) 

[EmpireCity]

It looks like Saturday might be even higher than $46.5m and Moana isn't getting anywhere near $13.5m, likely a lot closer to $11m for the weekend.  

[keysersoze123]

I am not impressed with presales. Even major imax's like AMC Empire and Navy Pier have not sold out matinee shows. Normally uber blockbusters sell the major shows like well before release.

 

Since the average drop in 2011 was 29% I am thinking 23-24% drop since this is OW and will benefit in major markets with some spillover business.

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It looks like Saturday might be even higher than $46.5m and Moana isn't getting anywhere near $13.5m, likely a lot closer to $11m for the weekend.  

 

 

What do you see for Sunday,  I think 37 million ! 

 

 

Looking at Monday, it is looking for a max of a 50% drop or around 18.5 million.

 

I see 

350 million by the 27th 

 

 

 

 

[lab276]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

 

I agree. That was exactly the problem! Movies should be about something special. We don't need movies about ordinary people doing ordinary things. It has no place in cinema. By that logic we should just make movies about our neighbors because "everyone has a story." Well fuck that's fascinating! I mean hmm Gladiator about a guy who seeks ultimate revenge and slays the emperor or... a movie about a guy who starts bar fights and struggles with alcoholism and spends the movie hanging out with his brother's kid. Hmmm. Hmmmmmmmmm this is a tough one! And people wonder why movies like this make no money?! People take one look at that plot description and say hell no.

 

I thought Ordinary People was pretty good.

Edited December 18, 2016 by lab276

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

What do you see for Sunday,  I think 37 million ! 

 

 

Looking at Monday, it is looking for a max of a 50% drop or around 18.5 million.

 

I see 

350 million by the 27th 

 

 

 

 

 

I think $154m is the floor because of the weather on the east coast and the brutal cold in the midwest and south.  If that clears up then I think $157m for the weekend is possible.  

[Jake Gittes]

44 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Call me fucking crazy, but I want Hollywood to always do bombastic, F/X-heavy films about badass amazonian demigodesses fighting ancient war deities while the fate of the entire world is at stake as much as intimate films about an Appalachian coal miner facing mundane, "boring" challenges like divorce, death, and depression. We can most certainly have both (I would say we NEED both types of fims), and sorry, but I do believe that the small, intimate stories are as powerful and impactful as the grandiose, grand ones.

We don't have to get rid of either type of filmmaking. That would be sooo myopic...

 

Moreover, it's such a strange notion that there has to be a clean line separating the two. Grandiose, larger-than-life stories only ever benefit from intimate character moments and gestures, and grand spectacles that actually age well and still have an impact on people decades later do so because there are feelings and emotions in there that people recognize and that feel authentic no matter the context. Whatever the budget of your movie is, or the amount of VFX you're gonna throw in there, you need to locate some kind of an emotional core and do it right, otherwise your movie might make money but no one will really give a shit a few years or even months later. If anyone has such a problem with films that are all purely about character and relationships that they have to endlessly vent about it and make blanket statements about what kind of stories "we" need or don't need, well, that's their problem. 

[EmpireCity]

I think an encouraging sign for Rogue One is that it went higher and Moana went lower than expected on Saturday and is a good indication it stole some family audiences.  

[DeeCee]

Zoolander was moving story about an Appalachian coal miner who had the fate of the world in his stare. 

[yjs]

30 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It looks like Saturday might be even higher than $46.5m and Moana isn't getting anywhere near $13.5m, likely a lot closer to $11m for the weekend.  

can it still do low-$12m like Deadline suggested previously? 

Edited December 18, 2016 by yjs

[DeeCee]

Aren't more kids in school on Monday relative to TFA?

[Lordmandeep]

This weekend pretty much is

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EmpireCity]

15 minutes ago, yjs said:

can it still do low-$12m like Deadline suggested previously? 

 

I don't think there is any chance.  It did $3m on Friday and $5m on Saturday.  It dropped around 35% each Sunday, so add in about $3.25m on Sunday and best I can see is $11.25m or possibly $11.5m for the weekend.  

 

The weather isn't going to help it any with parents not wanting to bundle kids up in single digit or below zero temps and Rogue One taking away business.  

[animationlover]

8 hours ago, water said:

my showing got applause as well.

 

the legs we are dealing with here are immeasurable

 

it really amaze me when i learn that american people applause after movie show 

[yjs]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I don't think there is any chance.  It did $3m on Friday and $5m on Saturday.  It dropped around 35% each Sunday, so add in about $3.25m on Sunday and best I can see is $11.25m or possibly $11.5m for the weekend.  

 

The weather isn't going to help it any with parents not wanting to bundle kids up in single digit or below zero temps and Rogue One taking away business.  

thanks! I'm still happy with the sub-40% drop, but this weekend they really messed it up with the overestimation at first (20-25% drop) only to go downhill from there. should have seen it coming. haha