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kayumanggi

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

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I am not so optimistic. The trend seems to be that we see a dollar more and more strong against rest of currencies. China has stopped its increase. And the inevitable drop relative to the phenomenon TFA was makes me think that SW8 can make about 800s and 1.4-1.5b WW. To think higher is risky, IMO. Episode IX should rebound later though.

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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree with Peludo. 800m OS. Similar to Fast 8 next year.

 

a Fast 8 VS EP8 OS race would be very interesting, Fast 8 is assured a very high China gross, even if it won't quite reach Furious 7.

 

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I thought I was already low-balling with 850-900m overseas (plus 650-700 domestic) but others here are lower.  I'll go with 850 at this early stage, unless somehow the dollar weakens significantly (which is possible in the current climate of uncertainty, but I think unlikely).

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12 hours ago, Valonqar said:

So between 1.5b and 1.6b WW. Big drop.

 

Sounds more like a completely normal drop to me. International box office isn't making giant leaps anymore, in part due to the exchange rates having become much worse than they used to be. Unless you happen to see the Chinese freak out over your movie, chances are low that the international take will grow. On top of that, you have the fact that a completely normal drop will look much bigger the more money your original movie made. If you drop 30% from 100m you lose 30m, if your drop 30% from 1b you lose 300m, if you drop 30% from 2b you lose 600m.

 

Age of Ultron would have dropped 20% worldwide from The Avengers, if it hadn't been for China exploding as a market in the meantime. Seeing how TFA is a huge outlier in multiple big markets (e.g. domestically, UK, Australia, Germany), the drops will naturally be pretty big, even if you make huge numbers. 1.5-1.6b would be a drop of around 25%, which is completely normal if the first one happened to be so much larger than almost everything else, not to mention the less than stellar development of the exchange rates in the meantime.

 

The nature of TFA being the first Star Wars movie in quite some time, plus the return of the old characters, led to a hype that brought many people to theaters that normally wouldn't go, hence the extreme numbers in some parts of the world. Such a thing isn't really sustainable for a sequel.

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14 hours ago, Valonqar said:

So between 1.5b and 1.6b WW. Big drop.

Phantom Menace: $924m

Attack of the Clones: $649m

That is a 30% drop

 

1.5b would mean a 27% drop. Nothing surprising. TFA, in the same way than Episode I, was an event film. To repeat what both films did it would be required something special (I do not know if Fisher's death can be that factor). But I would find those 1.5-1.6b figures quite normal and expected.

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2 hours ago, peludo said:

Phantom Menace: $924m

Attack of the Clones: $649m

That is a 30% drop

 

1.5b would mean a 27% drop. Nothing surprising. TFA, in the same way than Episode I, was an event film. To repeat what both films did it would be required something special (I do not know if Fisher's death can be that factor). But I would find those 1.5-1.6b figures quite normal and expected.

 

Yeah, that makes sense. especially with the strong dollar.

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Around 800m seems about right.

 

If Rogue One could do over $80m in the UK, The Last Jedi should manage $100m+ quite easily. 

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

Yeah, that makes sense. especially with the strong dollar.

Not just because strong dollar, which was already strong at the end of 2015. It will drop substantially in admissions too. I do not see 5 million admissions in Spain, as TFA did, for example. Maybe 3.5-4 million, what would already mean a 25-30% drop relative to TFA. I expect a similar behaviour nearly everywhere.

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Just now, peludo said:

Not just because strong dollar, which was already strong at the end of 2015. It will drop substantially in admissions too. I do not see 5 million admissions in Spain, as TFA did, for example. Maybe 3.5-4 million, what would already mean a 25-30% drop relative to TFA. I expect a similar behaviour nearly everywhere.

 

is that due to TFA reception? Sometimes people rush to see something, love it and than look back and shrug and don't come back in droves as the first time around. AoU for example, though that was a bad movie with crappy looking previews. 

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6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

is that due to TFA reception? Sometimes people rush to see something, love it and than look back and shrug and don't come back in droves as the first time around. AoU for example, though that was a bad movie with crappy looking previews. 

No, just what I told you in a previous post. TFA was a must-see film. It was everywhere. It was the link chapter to the original trilogy.

 

In Spain, Empire Strikes Back dropped a 50% relative to Star Wars even being considered by many people the best film of the franchise. And Attack of the Clones dropped 2.3 million admissions relative to Phantom Menace. The first part of each trilogy has been a phenomenon and it is hard for a sequel to achieve the same after the novelty factor, independently of the quality of the first or second film. Even more if we take into account that we are having a Star Wars film every year. Saturation with spin offs can be a problem for Star Wars. It is not the same to wait 32 years to see how a story goes on (ROTJ->TFA) than to wait 2 years. The drop is inevitable.

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@peludo very true. Some franchises max out with the first movie. SW seems to be that kind of a franchise. trilogies that take LOTR boxoffice (each new movie increases) are rare. But LOTR was the best ever so...

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