Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[elcaballero]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

The games are earlier in the day compared to last year which should affect traffic even more given people are likely to go to the movies earlier in the day on NYE. 

This is the major point. Last year, the games didn't pull their expected ratings, presumably due to overlapping with a lot of people's New Year's plans, so they moved the games earlier in the day. My guess is there will be quite a few people that are booked all day.

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Well in my opinion you're wrong. Was it any different back in 2011? Arent all college football games on Saturday? New Year's Eve already kills movies as it is. So I guess we'll just have to wait until tomorrow and find out what the percentage drops are. I'm pretty sure they're going to be exactly what they were in 2011.

 

The difference in 2011 was there were only a few normal bowl games.  This year you have the Semifinals back to back followed by New Year's.  It will have some impact but not sure how much.  

 

Colleges aren't in big metro areas nor do they draw big ratings in those areas, mostly spread out.  NFL is a different story and draws heavily from major metro areas.  

[JB33]

If Rogue One behaves exactly as Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows did during its New Years 3-day weekend, it would up with about $49.74M. However, I tend to think Rogue One, being the movie it is, will rise on Sunday a little more than the 7% SH2 did. Even a 15% Saturday to Sunday rise would give R1 just under a $51M 3rd weekend.

[baumer]

22 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I love how he says I'm wrong yet he really doesn't know much about the CFP at all. Lol B.

 

I'm Canadian buddy...I don't know jack shit about college bowl games. And I said in my opinion you are going to be wrong about it affecting the Drops for films. And that remains to be seen. So let's just see what happens tomorrow first.

[cannastop]

So, is 2017 going to decline from this year? I think it might.

[narniadis]

Just now, cannastop said:

So, is 2017 going to decline from this year? I think it might.

 

Its always a possibility - Ticket sales will decline though even if 17 can squeak an $ win.

[elcaballero]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

So, is 2017 going to decline from this year? I think it might.

Episode 8 will put it over the top.

[The Panda]

Anecdotal, but I know somebody who got up at 6am to drive to DFW just to make a 1pm showing of La La Land and then drive back.

[GiantCALBears]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Its always a possibility - Ticket sales will decline though even if 17 can squeak an $ win.

 

Will ticket price inflation slow down or stop in 2017? I think there is evidence to suggest we are hitting a peak on prices. Always an easy boost towards setting records year after year.

[Mr Terrific]

1) Disney is very close to $3b domestic. 

2) It will likely cross by less than $8m. 

3) Queen of Katwe made $8m-plus. 

4) Disney makes movies about Ugandan girls playing chess to cravenly reach gigantic monetary milestones. 

[Fancyarcher]

10 hours ago, Sal said:

Illumination gets big numbers because they saturate public awareness by slapping their upcoming releases on everything.  In marketing, recognition is everything.  Their tactic is to take something that's okay to moderately good (but unlikely to put off people) and then market the shit out of it until you can't help  but be aware of it.  It works even better with kid movies because kids will drag their parents to see stuff.

 

 

Yup! I was absolutely annoyed by how aggressive SLOP and Sing's marketing was. Illumination is a very smart company, and knows how to get people to go to the cinemas. 

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

Will ticket price inflation slow down or stop in 2017? I think there is evidence to suggest we are hitting a peak on prices. Always an easy boost towards setting records year after year.

 

you have to go back to 1993 to find a year where the ATP dropped from the previous year and then it was only by $.01 We may see a plateau but I highly doubt prices go down or stop. As long as the theaters think they can keep raising prices (and frankly as long as there are people who will pay) they will continue to increase. 

 

On average we have been seeing an average price that is just over $2.10 higher than tickets were a decade ago - I see no reason for that to stop unless the studios really get involved in some way.

[terrestrial]

53 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

How you make such a graphic? Is it from the-numbers.com

Yes, those are always from The-Numbers.com

If it is about a single title, they have that at every films main entry

I am guessing you want to look into Fantastic Beasts

first link = summary of FB

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Fantastic-Beasts-and-Where-to-Find-Them#tab=summary

here you can e.g. find the franchise chart link

For the graph like in the Moana post click on the Box Office tab, - depending on the browser - wait a bit, scroll down a bit.

But: for the moment this counts:

The-Numbers.com lets the titles be empty in the daily charts, if a distributer delivers no estimate. BOM uses est. - not sure about the source - and fill them in as such (no difference to see to the official studio estimates)

= Fantastic Beasts has no update at The-Numbers.com since some days.

The graph uses the OW as a starting point = FB's looks totally other than Moana's

 

The comparison with up to 6 films I already described... I think last weekend or so. In case you want help with that let me know.

 

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Yup! I was absolutely annoyed by how aggressive SLOP and Sing's marketing was. Illumination is a very smart company, and knows how to get people to go to the cinemas. 

 

Lol youre annoyed with ubiquitous marketing?

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Lol youre annoyed with ubiquitous marketing?

 

 

I'm annoyed at seeing the trailer for Sing at every other movie I went to see in the cinemas, more-so than any other movie in the past few months. Same with SLOP during the summer.

 

Illumination is a marketing juggernaut. Good on them I suppose. It could be considered partially why their films are so successful. 

[terrestrial]

      

 

I am guessing too many people use the internet ar 31 December....

 

Just in case

 

 

Happy new year!!!!

[SteveJaros]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

 

The College Football Playoffs didn't exist in 2011, and the major games like the Rose Bowl and such were on Jan 1st, so it is a bit different than then, not entirely sure how the impact will be

 

Your general point about there being no college football playoffs in 2011 is correct, but FWIW, there were no bowls on January 1st. That was Sunday, an NFL day. There was a full slate of NFL games, the last day of the NFL regular season so playoff positioning was at stake.

 

On Saturday, 12/31, there were six bowl games, none of them "major". Monday January 2nd was a big bowl day, with four pretty big bowls early and then the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl that day as well.

Edited December 31, 2016 by SteveJaros

[Jonwo]

20 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Yup! I was absolutely annoyed by how aggressive SLOP and Sing's marketing was. Illumination is a very smart company, and knows how to get people to go to the cinemas. 

 

Illumination is on par with WB for marketing, it's a shame the final product rarely lives up to the hype with one or two exceptions. I think Melendandri run a tight ship but it doesn't seem like a place where creativity can flow, a lot of ideas seem to be from him and the focus on making films under $75m means the storytelling does suffer as was the case with SLOP and Sing, animation wise, it's not so bad but it's not as good as Pixar and WDAS. Sing seems to be the exception as Garth Jennings wrote and directed it and isn't part of the core team.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

Illumination is on par with WB for marketing, it's a shame the final product rarely lives up to the hype with one or two exceptions. I think Melendandri run a tight ship but it doesn't seem like a place where creativity can flow, a lot of ideas seem to be from him and the focus on making films under $75m means the storytelling does suffer as was the case with SLOP and Sing, animation wise, it's not so bad but it's not as good as Pixar and WDAS. Sing seems to be the exception as Garth Jennings wrote and directed it and isn't part of the core team.

 

 

I just think Illumination is a company that's more concerned about keeping their budgets down and doing silly animated films, than telling a really good story. Something like SLOP was amusing, but I would hardly consider it an animation classic for example. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Illumination is a production company, I don't think they do their marketing at all.