Porthos Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Doctor RTH gone Rouge said: R1 6.4,Sing 6.3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 (edited) Sing dropped ≈ 56.2% R1 dropped ≈ 59.8% Both very good drops, IMO, considering the high Monday numbers for both. An imperfect comparison, but TFA dropped 62.7% from it's New Year's Sunday to Monday, and then a further .7% on Tuesday, so this is right in that ballpark near as I can tell when looking at Sun--> Tue. ======== Been tracking the R1 to TFA mulitplier, and with this estimate R1 is now .173x 'behind' TFA at their respective points in the run, a gain of .01x: Spoiler TFA multiplier: 1.162 1.312 1.466 1.576 1.775 2.004 2.178 2.304 2.424 2.537 2.629 2.768 2.907 2.993 3.026 (Tue 1/5) 3.058 R1 multiplier: 1.113 1.227 1.323 1.432 1.579 1.678 1.844 2.051 2.196 2.313 2.421 2.538 2.632 2.740 2.843 (Tue 1/3) 2.884 Difference: Mon -0.048 Tue -0.086 Wed -0.142 Thr -0.145 Fri -0.196 Sat -0.326 Sun -0.334 Mon -0.253 Tue -0.227 Wed -0.224 Thr -0.209 Fri -0.230 Sat -0.274 Sun -0.253 Mon -0.183 Tue -0.173 Edited January 4, 2017 by Porthos 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 @DamienRoc Quote It seems clear that our @That One Guy is defective. Can we return him for a replacement, or has the warranty expired? Parents learned a long time ago, to their everlasting horror, there are no refunds on teenagers. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Including the Tuesday number, Sing's cume is 3.41x it's 4-day ow. Tintin's was 3.51x the 4-day ow. Tintin's final multiplier off the 4-day ow was 5.13x. If Sing's final multi trails by a similar ratio as the multis so far, it will do 274 dom. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I would have expected maybe a bit better for both films with so many people still off. I'm in Los Angeles and traffic was light today, everyone saying it's because kids are still off and many people aren't back to work yet either. I guess it's not like that everywhere though clearly. Saw Rogue One at TCL Chinese tonight and it looked amazing. Pretty busy screening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I would have expected maybe a bit better for both films with so many people still off. I'm in Los Angeles and traffic was light today, everyone saying it's because kids are still off and many people aren't back to work yet either. I guess it's not like that everywhere though clearly. Saw Rogue One at TCL Chinese tonight and it looked amazing. Pretty busy screening!! Took a random look at major cities and school districts are back in session in NYC, SF, and Boston. Chicago looks to have them off this week though, so it's pretty haphazard as to whether or not kids are running around. Edited January 4, 2017 by Porthos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah I agree it just depends on the city I guess. I figured a 50-55% drop because so many people are still off but ah well. I knew it wouldn't make that big of a difference but I was hoping for $7M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Great numbers for both. The bare minimum WE for RO should be $25m (probably and hopefully more than that though. $30m would be a nice round number ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 (edited) I'm hoping for $30M+ I mean even $30M is still about -40% and I think it can do that. EDIT: Yeah let's say down 25% by Thursday like Game of Shadows and up 125% Friday from that $4.8M Thursday and you use the Sherlock 2 bumps and declines and you get $33M weekend. I think it could have a smaller bump Friday but a lower decline Sunday and still hit that $31-33M number. Edited January 4, 2017 by JonathanLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 (edited) Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big. Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross % Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1 Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2 Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2 Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3 Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3 Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time. EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype. Edited January 4, 2017 by a2knet 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 (edited) Okay, this probably is NEVER a fair comparison, and even if it ever is, it's probably not fair until next week when both films are past the holiday window completely. But on a lark, and using the 6.4 number for Tue, I decided to see what would happen if R1 followed TFA's drops EXACTLY (with one big exception [see below]) for the rest of the run (well, through April 14th, that is. Past that I don't have daily numbers, but TFA only did 1m more after that so whatevas): Spoiler Jan Spoiler $4,988,657 -22% $452,290,038 $4,797,420 -4% $457,087,458 $8,630,644 80% $465,718,101 $15,426,065 79% $481,144,166 $9,964,838 -35% $491,109,005 $2,497,128 -75% $493,606,132 $3,088,100 24% $496,694,232 $2,502,137 -19% $499,196,369 $2,514,210 0% $501,710,579 $5,083,862 102% $506,794,441 $8,858,880 74% $515,653,322 $7,217,104 -19% $522,870,425 $5,364,359 -26% $528,234,785 $1,912,515 -64% $530,147,299 $1,457,320 -24% $531,604,619 $1,513,440 4% $533,118,059 $2,839,768 88% $535,957,827 $5,474,009 93% $541,431,836 $2,995,186 -45% $544,427,022 $1,040,831 -65% $545,467,853 $1,264,736 22% $546,732,589 $1,063,915 -16% $547,796,504 $1,075,149 1% $548,871,652 $1,983,035 84% $550,854,687 $4,088,616 106% $554,943,303 $2,858,053 -30% $557,801,357 $627,182 -78% $558,428,538 $745,036 19% $559,173,574 Feb Spoiler $641,644 -14% $559,815,219 $645,464 1% $560,460,683 $1,424,008 121% $561,884,691 $3,028,120 113% $564,912,811 $1,149,331 -62% $566,062,142 $545,126 -53% $566,607,268 $568,750 4% $567,176,018 $504,611 -11% $567,680,628 $470,161 -7% $568,150,789 $898,007 91% $569,048,796 $1,742,133 94% $570,790,929 $1,184,651 -32% $571,975,580 $296,163 -75% $572,271,742 $364,280 23% $572,636,023 $316,924 -13% $572,952,946 $310,585 -2% $573,263,531 $630,488 103% $573,894,019 $1,305,110 107% $575,199,129 $1,331,212 2% $576,530,342 $785,415 -41% $577,315,757 $306,312 -61% $577,622,069 $248,113 -19% $577,870,181 $255,556 3% $578,125,737 $554,594 117% $578,680,331 $1,194,007 115% $579,874,338 $717,838 -40% $580,592,176 $196,080 -73% $580,788,256 $233,278 19% $581,021,534 Mar Spoiler $196,356 -16% $581,217,890 $191,240 -3% $581,409,130 $349,407 83% $581,758,536 $713,666 104% $582,472,203 $476,948 -33% $582,949,151 $126,459 -73% $583,075,610 $135,138 7% $583,210,747 $121,214 -10% $583,331,962 $126,791 5% $583,458,752 $255,578 102% $583,714,330 $480,595 88% $584,194,925 $335,614 -30% $584,530,539 $119,516 -64% $584,650,056 $137,174 15% $584,787,230 $122,488 -11% $584,909,718 $117,319 -4% $585,027,037 $198,810 69% $585,225,847 $353,562 78% $585,579,410 $245,486 -31% $585,824,896 $102,290 -58% $585,927,186 $111,312 9% $586,038,498 $109,904 -1% $586,148,402 $116,911 6% $586,265,313 $237,431 103% $586,502,744 $267,260 13% $586,770,003 $169,627 -37% $586,939,630 $118,027 -30% $587,057,657 $106,899 -9% $587,164,557 $104,360 -2% $587,268,916 $118,759 14% $587,387,675 Apr Spoiler $174,330 47% $587,562,005 $250,395 44% $587,812,401 $138,218 -45% $587,950,619 $46,954 -66% $587,997,573 $55,745 19% $588,053,318 $48,114 -14% $588,101,432 $56,682 18% $588,158,114 $87,116 54% $588,245,230 $142,839 64% $588,388,069 $82,989 -42% $588,471,059 $20,530 -75% $588,491,588 $26,500 29% $588,518,088 $20,545 -22% $588,538,634 $26,887 31% $588,565,520 The one change I did make was swap around the drops for Presidents Day Weekend and the Tu-Thr drops that followed on that week, since it comes a week later this year*. That's an imperfect cudgel, but I didn't want to over think this. * (That is, the drops for TFA's Day 64 - 70 was put in the slots for R1's 57-63 drops and the drops for TFA's Day 57-63 was put in the slots for R1's Day 64-70 drops) Came up with $588,565,520. Throw in another 500k for the rest of the run that I didn't have daily info for and I come up with 589m. IF it follows TFA exactly from here on out. Is it likely to closely follow TFA here on out? Probably not. But I think it might show where R1 can head if a lot of things break for it. And also show that 600m isn't COMPLETELY out of the question if it has slightly better drops along the way. And before people ask, I KNOW that R1 hasn't followed TFA much at all. But if that's been because of the placement of the holidays, then it might be interesting to see what a TFA run the rest of the way would generate, once an adjustment for Presidents Day Weekend is made. Edited January 4, 2017 by Porthos 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, a2knet said: Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big. Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross % Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1 Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2 Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2 Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3 Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3 Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time. EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype. Yeh, Fences is doing really well so far. I was worried initially because of the big drops it's first few days. It's definitely settled down now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice number for R1 and great number for Sing. So close to #1 a 25% drop for Wed would mean a 4.8M for R1. Increasing chance of reaching 30M this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I agree Fences run is great. With Oscars and MLK it might get close to 100M Lion is also recovering after a disappointing start. WOM slowly spreading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The theaters were packed here Yesterday. I am bit surprised at that number for Rogue one. I thought it would be a little bit higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Unless it gets a Picture nom I think Fences is gonna top out at 60-65m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 hours ago, TalismanRing said: @DamienRoc Parents learned a long time ago, to their everlasting horror, there are no refunds on teenagers. I missed out on all the fun after I went to sleep . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I guess this will be Sing's IO weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, a2knet said: Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big. Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross % Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1 Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2 Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2 Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3 Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3 Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time. EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype. Denzel didn't even have to take that much of an awards bait salary cut, really, I swear Fences has about three sets. You would never look at Fences and Hidden Figures back to back and think their budgets were $1m apart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 hours ago, TalismanRing said: @DamienRoc Parents learned a long time ago, to their everlasting horror, there are no refunds on teenagers. in the olden days you just gave them to the gypsies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...