Weekend Actuals (Page 40): Hidden Figures 22.8M | Rogue One 22.1M | Sing 20.7M | Underworld 13.7M | La La Land 10.1M | Passengers 8.8M | A Monster Calls 2.1M

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

This is what you will be dealing with for week #5

1	Avatar	Fox	$42,785,612	5.7%	3,285	$13,025	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Titanic	Par.	$30,011,034	5.0%	2,767	$10,846	$600,788,188	12/19/97
3	Frozen	BV	$28,596,319	7.1%	3,335	$8,575	$400,738,009	11/27/13
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$26,342,117	2.8%	3,822	$6,892	$936,662,225	12/18/15
5	The Sixth Sense	BV	$22,896,967	7.8%	2,775	$8,251	$293,506,292	8/6/99
6	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$20,486,418	3.3%	3,670	$5,582	$623,357,910	5/4/12
7	Zootopia	BV	$19,325,291	5.7%	3,698	$5,226	$341,268,248	3/4/16
8	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$18,859,021	4.4%	3,019	$6,246	$431,088,295	5/19/99
9	Jurassic World	Uni.	$18,151,275	2.8%	3,441	$5,275	$652,270,625	6/12/15
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$17,115,708	4.7%	3,970	$4,311	$364,001,123	4/15/16
11	Guardians of the Galaxy	BV	$17,082,262	5.1%	3,462	$4,934	$333,176,600	8/1/14
12	American Sniper	WB	$16,414,805	4.7%	3,436	$4,777	$350,126,372	1/16/15
13	The Dark Knight	WB	$16,379,293	3.1%	3,590	$4,562	$533,345,358	7/18/08

 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=5&p=.htm

 

What are you thinking for R1's 5th weekend?

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, The Dark Shape said:

I don't understand why Rogue One's number is shocking.  A 52% drop is basically identical to The Force Awakens' 53% post-New Years week drop last year.

 

I was comparing R1 to big releases in 2011, when the calendar was the same. It's actually a better reference than TFA in terms of box office behaviour and it was pretty accurate up until the last few days and this weekend (projected).

Edited January 7, 2017 by JB33

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

What are you thinking for R1's 5th weekend?

ehhh, right around The Dark Knight.  Hypothetically, it looses 157 locations for 4,000 locations in week 5.  It averages 6k this week and looses 1/3 of its per screen audience for 4k next week.  (4k)(4k) = 16mill.  Perhaps the Sunday number will bump up a bit and IMAX Sunday will be stronger, but it will loose more with probably a larger theater drop and loosing IMAX showtimes to La La Land and other premium showings to Monster Trucks. 

[a2k]

Tintin's FSS was +71%, +70%, -33.4%

Sing's Fri is +65%.

If it has similar Sat and Sun holds it will have a 15.3 weekend.

Probably will do high-teens but I don't see the 22+ Deadline is projecting unless the Friday goes higher than the 5.2 estimate.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

ehhh, right around The Dark Knight.  Hypothetically, it looses 157 locations for 4,000 locations in week 5.  It averages 6k this week and looses 1/3 of its per screen audience for 4k next week.  (4k)(4k) = 16mill.  Perhaps the Sunday number will bump up a bit and IMAX Sunday will be stronger, but it will loose more with probably a larger theater drop and loosing IMAX showtimes to La La Land and other premium showings to Monster Trucks. 

 

That's a pretty good number. I'd be happy with that.

[dxmatrixdt]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What's everyone expecting from next weekend's releases? There's 5 of them and yet Patriots Day is the only one that seems to have any kind of a pulse.

Patriots Day at approx 3,000 locations looks on par for 20M

Live By Night at 2,700+ looks on par for 10M

Sleepless 2,000 locations under 10

Bye Bye Man 2,300 locations - whatever it makes, it should not impact

Monster Trucks 2,800 locations - probably more than Norm of the North

 

 

Rogue One is bound to drop just because it has massive numbers it needs to come down from.  Hidden Figures and its A+ cinemascore could challenge Patriots Day for #1 or Sing could leapfrog if Monster Trucks is a no show.  However, Sing is going to loose hundreds of theaters next week most likely.

[dxmatrixdt]

8 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Patriots Day at approx 3,000 locations looks on par for 20M

Live By Night at 2,700+ looks on par for 10M

Sleepless 2,000 locations under 10

Bye Bye Man 2,300 locations - whatever it makes, it should not impact

Monster Trucks 2,800 locations - probably more than Norm of the North

 

 

Rogue One is bound to drop just because it has massive numbers it needs to come down from.  Hidden Figures and its A+ cinemascore could challenge Patriots Day for #1 or Sing could leapfrog if Monster Trucks is a no show.  However, Sing is going to loose hundreds of theaters next week most likely.

 

 

Just to reiterate on the new product next week.  Silence is also expanding to 750+.  Golden Globes will be over Sunday so there will be an awards impact.  La La Land is not going anywhere.  Smaller expansions are incoming for limited releases to mainstream markets.  Underworld is on 1 screen per theater and it wont be loosing showtimes next week.  Monster Calls will loose showtimes  but Hidden Figures will probably add some.  Shared theater space is going to shrink up FAST.  In comes 13,000 new reels to fill locations.  Usually US/Canada gets up to 39,000 per weekend so do the math and drop everything that is out by 1/3.  Bye Bye Assassin's Creed, Why Him?, Fences, Passengers, (and anything that has had a fair and decent run) Is this China?

Edited January 7, 2017 by Matrix4You

[terrestrial]

35 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I was comparing R1 to big releases in 2011, when the calendar was the same. It's actually a better reference than TFA in terms of box office behaviour and it was pretty accurate up until the last few days and this weekend (projected).

Check up if the weather was similar

When more or less all titles are lower than predicted and several members point out to the bad weather in certain regions, I'd take that seriously enough to look into it if still being .... not sure what is correct: worried, irritated, simply wondering strongly, or... 

[keysersoze123]

Both R1 and Sing weekends are overestimated with that friday number. we will know tomorrow for sure.

[aabattery]

Went and saw Edge of Seventeen and Arrival today. The theatre for Arrival was packed. Easily 85% full. Can't say what it's like in the States but if it mirrors this, they made a mistake pulling it from so many theatres. This was one of only 4 showtimes or something across the whole of Auckland. 

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

Went and saw Edge of Seventeen and Arrival today. The theatre for Arrival was packed. Easily 85% full. Can't say what it's like in the States but if it mirrors this, they made a mistake pulling it from so many theatres. This was one of only 4 showtimes or something across the whole of Auckland. 

How was edge of 17?

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

How was edge of 17?

 

I really liked it; Woody Harrelson was hilarious. Theatre wasn't that full though; only at about 30% capacity or so. Was a really nice day though so that might have taken some business away.

[Dingdong123]

How the hell is Moana doing 9.2 million this weekend after a 1.7 million Friday? That looks impossible! Not that I'm complaining. 7-7.5 million looks more realistic, which is a fantastic hold nonetheless.

[forg]

Good for Hidden Figures!

 

Arrival will likely get a re-release once Oscar nods are out and it gets major nominations

[forg]

Edge of 17 should have been a summer movie, i think it would have done better than going up against Fantastic Beasts. It could have at least do similar numbers with The D.U.F.F.

[AN9815]

So sad that 'Sing' is going to beat 'Moana' , on the other hand the record for a movie that never hit #1 will go down!! 

[JonathanLB]

16 minutes ago, forg said:

Edge of 17 should have been a summer movie, i think it would have done better than going up against Fantastic Beasts. It could have at least do similar numbers with The D.U.F.F.

 

Good point though I liked Edge of Seventeen much more personally. I thought The DUFF was a DUD lol

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

strait to vod releases, those numbers seem similar to now dead Scream franchise

 

You mean only similar to Scream 4 ($100m gross, $40m budget). 

 

Plus, no Scream sequels have been released straight* to VOD. 

[forg]

20 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Good point though I liked Edge of Seventeen much more personally. I thought The DUFF was a DUD lol

 

The DUFF was OK for me, good enough time filler when I chance upon on cable type of movie.

 

I wish we could get Edge of 17 here but likely not. Too bad it really got lost in the shuffle especially with those reviews

[George Parr]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

 

I was comparing R1 to big releases in 2011, when the calendar was the same. It's actually a better reference than TFA in terms of box office behaviour and it was pretty accurate up until the last few days and this weekend (projected).

 

I think that worked decently for the holiday period, but not so much for anything that follows. We are back to normal days again, movies don't really have any reason to follow the same trends anymore. It's not like Rogue One behaved comparably to Sherlock Holmes 2 or MI: Ghost Protocol on the weekends anyway. On christmas weekend, it rose slightly less on Friday, dropped less on Saturday, rose quite a bit less on Sunday but got a bigger boost on Monday. On New Years weekend, it had a weaker Friday increase, dropped about the same on Saturday, rose better than SH2 on Sunday (though same as MI) and dropped less on Monday. The behaviour on the weekends was more of a mix between action movies on the one hand (SH2, MI) and animated movies on the other (Tintin, Chipmunks).