THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Everything Everything will make over The Long Haul, I can even see under $25M for Long Haul.

Everything Everything could be a solid midrange grosser like If I Stay and Me Before You if everything goes right. I have no clue how popular the book is though.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Are you forgetting

 

This film looks absolutely horrendous. And yet its the type of film where I predict it making like $10M OW and then instead it makes $30M+. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Competition in the second and third weekends for May MCU films:

 

CW: Money Monster (14.8M) and The Darkness (5M) for 19.8M vs 72.6M; Angry Birds (38.2M), Neighbors (21.8M), and Nice Guys (11.2M) for 71.2M vs 32.9M

AOU: Hot Pursuit with 13.9M vs 77.7M; Pitch Perfect (69.2M) and Mad Max (45.4M) for 114.6M vs 38.9M

IM3: Gatsby (50.1M) and Peeple (4.6M) for 54.7M vs 72.5M; Star Trek with 70.2M vs 35.8M

Avengers: Dark Shadows with 29.7M vs 103.1M; Battleship (25.5M), Dictator (17.4M), and Expecting (10.5M) for 53.4M vs 55.6M

 

GOTG already faces more competition than CW and AOU in the second weekend with King Arthur and The Wall. The former has enough buzz for 20M, and the latter can easily hit 10M with enough theaters and strong reviews. That would also put its competition above Avengers. The third weekend is where the fun begins. This doesn't have the one-two punch of Pitch Perfect and Fury Road, but it has a biggie: Ridley Scott. Alien is on track for a 50M opening with a shot at 60M (60M is highly likely if Fox is releasing it in 3D, which is unclear). Additionally, Wimpy Kid and Everything Everything should provide openings around 10M each. The competition could very well end up at 80M, which is higher than any of the previous releases' competition save for AOU. If you use the lack of competition as a reason for GOTG to be huge, think again.

I'd argue I could see $40M more than $60M for Alien. However GV2 has less competition than IM3, not saying I expect the same results but $130M-$145M OW with a $310M-$350M finish seems fair. 

[YM!]

Just now, filmlover said:

Everything Everything could be a solid midrange grosser like If I Stay and Me Before You if everything goes right. I have no clue how popular the book is though.

The Long Haul got a lot of backlash from it's primary audience after Rodrick got recasted.

[Plain Old Tele]

36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

AMC presales are currently half of what CW had 3 weeks from release. CW reviews were flowing in at that time, so let's assume GOTG gets a little leeway on that. 60% of CW's OW translates to 107.4M, 65% 116.4M, and 70% 125.3M. To hit 300M, it would need a 2.79x, 2.58x, and 2.39x, respectively. Knowing the genre and how frontloaded sequels can be, a lower-end OW would be concerning. Logan will end up around a 2.58x, and it's possible Memorial Day helps GOTG. We'll see. I don't see it dropping below 300M at the moment, but to say there's no chance is a bit Ludacris ludicrous.

 

I didn't say no chance, I just said "no realistic scenario". I don't think LOGAN is a good comp, the X-movies never have good legs. GOTG had pretty good legs and there's plenty of room for the sequel to have worse legs but still decent multi. And all signs point to it opening significantly larger than the original, even if it doesn't reach 150. Combine this variables and 300+ seems really likely. 

[filmlover]

I could honestly see Snatched having a bigger opening than King Arthur. I'd bet on it, in fact.

[Fancyarcher]

4 hours ago, Blankments said:

Tonight I return to La Familia to see F8.

Naturally, I'm back here too, with my true familia. It's been a long time without you my friends, and I'll tell you about it since I see you again.

 

Blanks has returned. I like that. 

[MattW]

This year the box office stories I was really looking forward to were beauty and the beast everywhere, and Fast 8 in China.  Everything else is a level or two below those in interesting-ness.

 

Next year it's Infinity War, jurassic world 2 and Incredibles 2

 

[Fancyarcher]

3 hours ago, Blankments said:

Basically, I've spent the past two months so involved with my own shit (acted in my first play since high school AND finished the first draft of a feature-length play) and being surprisingly at peace with myself that I don't really mind much about looking for a relationship. Also, dating apps in general aren't for me because I think any girl I would be interested in (AKA any girl in the past three years I've crushed on) has to be met naturally and probably be similarly creative-minded. I've gotten more involved with friends of any gender post-play and I'm totally happy with my life now. Basically, I never really needed a relationship; I needed to have bigger relationships among non-film-major friends, and I'm getting there.

 

But let's not derail: hyped for Dom's betrayal this weekend!! IT IS WHAT FATE HAS DECIDED

 

Congrats man. Sounds like you've really accomplished a lot in the past few months. 

[grim22]

Just now, filmlover said:

I could honestly see Snatched having a bigger opening than King Arthur. I'd bet on it, in fact.

 

I can actually see King Arthur surprising everyone with a 35M+ opening. Snatched looks like it will make mint on Mother's Day as the mom-daughter viewing parties will fuel it that Sunday. I think it can make 30M honestly, there is nothing else in the market for women that weekend.

[YM!]

Here's the thing about GOTGV2, aside from the Avengers/CW movies, MCU movies never had extraordinary presales. Not to mention, even with shit marketing, Strange opened to $85M OW even with Trolls (a $45M+ OW too). The more and more I look at GV2, I sense real world hype (GA hype) is larger than social media hype. I was on the phone with my Dad (who lives in Barbados), the other day and we were talking about movies for a bit, and he (someone who was hasn't liked CBMs outside of TDK, WS and G1) was excited for it.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, MattW said:

This year the box office stories I was really looking forward to were beauty and the beast everywhere, and Fast 8 in China.  Everything else is a level or two below those in interesting-ness.

 

Next year it's Infinity War, jurassic world 2 and Incredibles 2

 

Call me crazy but for domestic:

TI2 > AIW > JW2.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I can actually see King Arthur surprising everyone with a 35M+ opening. Snatched looks like it will make mint on Mother's Day as the mom-daughter viewing parties will fuel it that Sunday. I think it can make 30M honestly, there is nothing else in the market for women that weekend.

If the third trailer hadn't come out, 35M might have been a reasonable prediction to defend, but the recent trailer made no impact whatsoever online; it only has 2.4M views after two weeks on the main WB channel. 

[Dragon]

Come on Fast 8 make that Money!

[John Marston]

Just now, YourMother said:

Here's the thing about GOTGV2, aside from the Avengers/CW movies, MCU movies never had extraordinary presales. Not to mention, even with shit marketing, Strange opened to $85M OW even with Trolls (a $45M+ OW too). The more and more I look at GV2, I sense real world hype (GA hype) is larger than social media hype. I was on the phone with my Dad (who lives in Barbados), the other day and we were talking about movies for a bit, and he (someone who was hasn't liked CBMs outside of TDK, WS and G1) was excited for it.

 

 

Inthink most agree GOtG will

do well. Just more along the lines of 300-350 instead of 400-500

[Fancyarcher]

Edit: Just saw Tele's response. 

 

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, like look at this upcoming schedule. Does he ever sleep?

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

Title (click to view)	Studio	Release Date
Skyscraper	Uni.	7/13/18
Rampage	WB (NL)	4/20/18
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	12/20/17
Baywatch	Par.	5/25/17
The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	4/14/17

 

Especially since all of those films are potential blockbuster films. Dude should slow-down or at least try to maybe do a smaller film. I know he excels in blockbusters and he's not a "great actor", but really. 

Edited April 14, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[YM!]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

Inthink most agree GOtG will

do well. Just more along the lines of 300-350 instead of 400-500

So do I. I think it'll open bigger than expected here but not $160M+ big. Now I'm thinking $140M/$350M seems fair.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I can actually see King Arthur surprising everyone with a 35M+ opening. Snatched looks like it will make mint on Mother's Day as the mom-daughter viewing parties will fuel it that Sunday. I think it can make 30M honestly, there is nothing else in the market for women that weekend.

 

I don't know...last year, I called Bad Moms as a sleeper hit in March b/c it had an underlying "happy" tone in all the trailers - Snatched just doesn't have that tone - it's actually off-putting in its trailers for a reason I'm struggling to put my finger on.  Maybe the movie is better and you're right, Moms have to see something Mother's Day - dads tend to flail and just buy whatever the girl movie of the moment is...but Beauty and the Beast will probably still be around and might be the safer call for them (Disney should have released the sing along that weekend!:)

[grim22]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

If the third trailer hadn't come out, 35M might have been a reasonable prediction to defend, but the recent trailer made no impact whatsoever online; it only has 2.4M views after two weeks on the main WB channel. 

 

We will see, you know how much I hate predicting based just on trailer views, it is a flawed metric. If trailer views translated to box office, Power Rangers would have more than doubled Kong domestic. Some franchises just skew much older that trailer views just cannot be taken as the be all end all.

[WrathOfHan]

Another thing to note: why has the last Apes trailer been performing so poorly? It came out two weeks ago and only has 3.9M views on the main Fox channel. The highest non-Fox video has 570k views, so it's not like POTC where the views are spread over multiple videos.