Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[PPZVGOS]

$360 to $370M is the most likely range for GOTG2.

[John Marston]

Alien Covenant made $42,034,515 this weekend overseas 

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:

$360 to $370M is the most likely range for GOTG2.

 

Third movie of the year dom in 2017 ?

I think so.

 

 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Pirates of the Caribbean was once very popular overseas and I guess it could be this time as well but Johnny Depp's shine has definitely been dimmed over the last few years. I don't see Pirates coming anywhere close to a billion. I wouldn't be surprised with a sub 200 finish here and maybe two hundred million in China. I don't think it's getting 600 million from other markets. My guess at this point would be perhaps 800 or 850.

 

It looks like it could break out in China ($250M-$300M) and then with a decent/good DOM, $1Bn is possible.

[JennaJ]

Yeah, I don't get the huge predictions for Pirates. It's a franchise that is years past its prime, IMHO, and I haven't felt any excitement about it from people I know. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if it made a Billion.

[John Marston]

Alien Covenant opened in these markets and made 42m

 

 

South Korea	9 May 2017
France	10 May 2017
Indonesia	10 May 2017
Philippines	10 May 2017
Singapore	10 May 2017
Turkey	10 May 2017	(limited)
Australia	11 May 2017
Brazil	11 May 2017
Colombia	11 May 2017
Italy	11 May 2017
Peru	11 May 2017
Estonia	12 May 2017
Spain	12 May 2017
UK	12 May 2017
Ireland	12 May 2017
India	12 May 2017
Lithuania	12 May 2017
Poland	12 May 2017
Romania	12 May 2017
Turkey	12 May 2017

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, JennaJ said:

Yeah, I don't get the huge predictions for Pirates. It's a franchise that is years past its prime, IMHO, and I haven't felt any excitement about it from people I know. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if it made a Billion.

This is what I've been saying for months. It's a direct sequel to a poorly received movie from six years ago with the same cast. Nothing about it looks fresh, and it's too soon for nostalgia. It's just past its prime. People have used JW as a comparison, but that was a new cast and story and 20 plus years of nostalgia. This is the same old shit that has been declining since the second movie. Plus, Johnny Depp's baggage is going to really, really hurt this movie. When the movie's iconic primary hero is now utterly reviled and a universally derided hack, it kind of takes the fun out of rooting for that character. Jack Sparrow is the reason the first two were so huge, and if the marketing can't even lean into him in the trailers, then where does that leave this franchise?

 

Still, the market is empty and people are willing to overlook his actions, so it should do solid business. I'm not predicting a total flop or anything.

[Brainiac5]

21 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

It's not about "excuses". It's about the USD value of overseas tickets sold. 

 

Let's assume, for the sake of simplicity, that the rest of the world only uses euros. If the euro devalues by 20% versus the USD, then a movie will have to sell 20% more tickets just to make the same USD amount as its predecessor did. If a movie sells exactly the same tickets as its predecessor, then its cume when expressed in USD terms will be 20% lower than a movie released before the euro devaluation. 

 

In short, since late 2014, OS grosses have been massively depressed by the strong dollar, or what comes to the same thing, weak euro/pound/yen/ruble/peso/crone etc etc etc...

 

So, let's assume that GOTG2 had to sell tickets in an environment were the weighted average of currency values is 20% lower than it was for the original in 2014. As that movie made $440M OS, if its sequel now sells the exact same number of tickets in the exact same markets, then GOTG2 will make 440M x 0.8 = $352M 

 

So, the simple truth is, that the exchange rates are a massive factor when it comes to OS BO. In the short and even mid-term, it's the most important factor by far. 

 

Edit: A strong USD even depressed the domestic box-office since that includes the Canadian market which must be around 10% of the domestic total. Since the Canadian dollar has devalued by around 30% since 2014, then this simply means that the domestic BO has been depressed by around 3%. A not-negligible percentage. The degree to which Hollywood would love a weak USD cannot be overstated. 

So in other words the most GOTGv2 was gonna do was 900-950 ww ?thats  extremely close but still not a Billion.

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

Yeah, I don't get the huge predictions for Pirates. It's a franchise that is years past its prime, IMHO, and I haven't felt any excitement about it from people I know. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if it made a Billion.

 

 

not saying Pirates will do great or anything (though I think it will do better than some think) but plenty of franchises that seemed "dead" (which is kind of silly to say since the last one still made a lot of money) have managed to come back. (James Bond. Star Trek, Fast and Furious, Jurassic Park, Mission Impossible) 

[JennaJ]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

not saying Pirates will do great or anything (though I think it will do better than some think) but plenty of franchises that seemed "dead" (which is kind of silly to say since the last one still made a lot of money) have managed to come back. (James Bond. Star Trek, Fast and Furious, Jurassic Park, Mission Impossible) 

 

Hey, don't put words in my mouth and then criticize them. I never said it was dead, I said it was years past it's prime.

Which it is.

[PPZVGOS]

6 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

Third movie of the year dom in 2017 ?

I think so.

 

 

 

So, you are assuming that only Star Wars: The Last Jedi will beat it from now. Possible.

 

But, maybe Spiderman can interfere with that, or even DM3. What if the Justice League turns out good? What if Thor: Ragnarok surprises to the upside? 

 

Spiderman has the best chance to doing more than GOTG2 imo. 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, JennaJ said:

 

Hey, don't put words in my mouth and then criticize them. I never said it was dead, I said it was years past it's prime.

Which it is.

 

 

yeah but most people are predicting at best 220m or so so I don't think anybody is saying it will do as well as the originals. 

[raulbalarezo]

From pro.boxoffice.com

Alien: Covenant was unleashed to audiences across 34 overseas markets this weekend, scaring up #1 finishes in 19 of those markets.

The sci-fi thriller performed best in South Korea, where it posted a $7.2 million debut (including previews) from 845 screens. Other top markets include the UK ($6.3M, 1430 Screens), France ($4.5M, 685 Screens), Australia ($3M, 257 Screens), and Mexico ($2.4M, 1695 Screens).

Fox reports that these numbers are 4% bigger than Mad Max: Fury Road for the same markets at current exchange rates.

Alien: Covenant will expand to 52 additional markets next weekend to coincide with its North America (US & Canada) debut, including Germany, Russia, and Sweden.

[The Futurist]

2 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

So, you are assuming that only Star Wars: The Last Jedi will beat it from now. Possible.

 

But, maybe Spiderman can interfere with that, or even DM3. What if the Justice League turns out good? What if Thor: Ragnarok surprises to the upside? 

 

Spiderman has the best chance to doing more than GOTG2 imo. 

 We had lots of 340-350m+ grossers last year but it was just a random event, doing more than 370m remains hard and rare.

[PPZVGOS]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Alien Covenant opened in these markets and made 42m

 

 

South Korea	9 May 2017
France	10 May 2017
Indonesia	10 May 2017
Philippines	10 May 2017
Singapore	10 May 2017
Turkey	10 May 2017	(limited)
Australia	11 May 2017
Brazil	11 May 2017
Colombia	11 May 2017
Italy	11 May 2017
Peru	11 May 2017
Estonia	12 May 2017
Spain	12 May 2017
UK	12 May 2017
Ireland	12 May 2017
India	12 May 2017
Lithuania	12 May 2017
Poland	12 May 2017
Romania	12 May 2017
Turkey	12 May 2017

 

Hmm. Not that great to be honest. UK and South Korea are major markets. The Brazil, Australia are also big. Then, Spain and Italy. Oh, and France! 

 

So, it still has China, Japan, Russia, Germany and Mexico. What else is there at the OS BO? Scandinavia, Benelux, Taiwan, Argentina and Hong Kong? 

[John Marston]

Alien Covenant looks to be aiming for 250m overseas. 110m domestic maybe for a 360m or so worldwide total

[JennaJ]

1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

So, you are assuming that only Star Wars: The Last Jedi will beat it from now. Possible.

 

But, maybe Spiderman can interfere with that, or even DM3. What if the Justice League turns out good? What if Thor: Ragnarok surprises to the upside? 

 

Spiderman has the best chance to doing more than GOTG2 imo. 

 

Domestically I think the one with the best odds is Justice League (If WW is good and gets both great reviews and strong WOM).

Spiderman is possible I guess, it's more that this is the seventh Spiderman appearance in a movie over the past 15 years, which makes the whole thing feel a lot less fresh.

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

not saying Pirates will do great or anything (though I think it will do better than some think) but plenty of franchises that seemed "dead" (which is kind of silly to say since the last one still made a lot of money) have managed to come back. (James Bond. Star Trek, Fast and Furious, Jurassic Park, Mission Impossible) 

Difference is that James Bond, Star Trek, and Jurassic Park essentially completely rebooted with new casts and everything. Fast and Furious brought back Diesel, the heart and soul of the franchise. Mission Impossible is the best comparison - a dead-ish franchise that was built around a star with tons of baggage - but Ghost Protocol ended up getting amazing reviews and had the cool hook of Tom Cruise doing his own stunts on top of the newly built largest structure on Earth. Don't see that for Pirates.

Also, check alot of the prediction threads and the summer game. There is absolutely multiple people predicting above 220 for Pirates, despite what you keep saying.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

7 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

Hey, don't put words in my mouth and then criticize them. I never said it was dead, I said it was years past it's prime.

Which it is.

Past it's prime doesn't always mean a certain sequel must do "much lower than expected" numbers for a big blockbuster-sequel. Hell, even frikkin Transformers 5 comes out this summer. And you're telling us that even Optimus might also be years past his (no pun-intended) "prime" if TF5 also massively underperforms as well?

[KP1025]

7 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah with big bump on Sunday 15-20% drop was incoming. Should pass 500 more easily than we thought after a series of 45-50% drops.

In fact I had settled for a Dory like 485+. But that movie didn't show great legs (except for a late push by Disney) and PETS seemed to have a permanent effect on it.

BATB on the other hand is showing great stamina. Even before the dollar bump it will cross 500.

The dollar bump and a possible push by Disney could see it past 505 (incidentally ~507 will give it a 2.9x multiplier).

 

 

 

I don't think it will get to $505 million since Disney is releasing the Blu-ray super early on June 6th. Some films plummet after the Blu-ray release, whereas others seem to be relatively stable. I can also see it bleeding a lot of theaters due to big summer releases coming out week after week starting with Pirates 5.