Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

So, you are assuming that only Star Wars: The Last Jedi will beat it from now. Possible.

 

But, maybe Spiderman can interfere with that, or even DM3. What if the Justice League turns out good? What if Thor: Ragnarok surprises to the upside? 

 

Spiderman has the best chance to doing more than GOTG2 imo. 

 

You're not suggesting that any of those movies that you mentioned have a remote chance of doing 500 million are you?

[Maxmoser3]

Guardians easily shoots up the King, and drops off Snatched

 

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 easily led the top stop it's sophomore frame, while Snatched debut ok and King Arthur bombed.

 

Overall the top 12 was at $120.9 million, which is nearly 50% down from last year. When Captain America:Civil War shot up the summer of 2016 with a solid $179.1 million its opening weekend.

 

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 led its sophomore frame with an estimated $63 million, and dropped better than Captain America:Civil War last summer. With solid

word of mouth, and some competition with Disney's other new release Pirates Of The Caribbean on Memorial Day weekend, and WB/DC's Wonder Woman on June 2nd. Overall, Guardians should make at least $350-$360 million domestic. 

 

The main new release aimed towards the female audience for Mother's Day weekend, Snatched had an alright start with an estimated $17.5 million. Which is an improvement from Hot Pursuit the same weekend 2 years ago, and on-par with the debut of How To Be Single last February. But is a far cry from the debut of Schumer's last starring vehicle Trainwreck. With mixed word of mouth, and Baywatch coming out May 25, Snatched could get swallowed up or hold on just fine considering it's the first comedy this year aimed towards female audiences until Rough Night on June 16th. Look Snatched to kidnap around $45-$50 million domestic.

 

While it was slated to beat Snatched to 2nd place this weekend, King Arthur:Legend of the Sword bombed with an estimated $14.7 million. That debut is slightly better than director Guy Ritchie's last outing, The Man From U.N.C.L.E but is worse than the last King Arthur adaptation 13 years ago, and that even had better attendance when adjusting ticket price inflation. Overall with bigger movies coming out the next few weeks, King Arthur will have a wimpy sword and end its run with at least $40 million domestic.

 

With a month in theaters so far in its belt, The Fate Of The Furious had its best hold yet so far in its run with an under 40% drop. As the film had outgrossed Fast Five's domestic total, it will definitely fall short of Fast & Furious 6's total. With a bigger slate coming in the next few weeks, and the summer box office will go in full swing Fate should hold so-so. Look for Fate to cruise around $225 million domestic. 

 

Rounding out the top five, The Boss Baby still held out strong with an under 25% drop. With not any family competition until June starting with Captain Underpants on June 2nd, The Boss Baby should be the #1 choice for the kiddos who aren't interested in Guardians or the big blockbusters this summer. Look for Boss Baby to walk its way to $170-$175 million domestic.

 

The highest grossing film of 2017(thus far), Beauty And The Beast has still held on strong as well with below 25% with 9 weeks so far in its belt. Look for Beast, to end its run with at least $515 million domestic.

 

How To Be A Latin Lover had a much better hold than last weekend, and should make at least $30 million domestic. 

 

With under 1,000 screens, BH Tilt's Lowriders drove by with an estimated $2.4 million debut which is on-par with the small studio's supernatural horror outing Incarnate from last December, and better than Sleight's debut 2 weeks ago. As typical BH Tilt films usually hold, look for Lowriders to hang on down with a domestic total close to $5 million. 

 

With bad word of mouth and less interest, The Circle dropped roughly the same as last weekend with another 56% drop as it had lost 1,031 screens this weekend. Look for a total close above $20 million domestic.

 

Baahubali 2: The Conclusion was beaten down again this weekend, after its decent debut 2 weeks ago. The film has lost interest, and should make below $25 million domestic.

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

39 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Your us+china is high. More like 425-500. @Olive and @POTUS could tell better.

I'm thinking $ 220 - 250m DOM and $ 250 - 300m in China.

[JennaJ]

13 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Past it's prime doesn't always mean a certain sequel must do "much lower than expected" numbers for a big blockbuster-sequel. Hell, even frikkin Transformers 5 comes out this summer. And you're telling us that even Optimus might also be years past his (no pun-intended) "prime" if TF5 also massively underperforms as well?

 

Uhm... yeah? Transformers has had diminishing returns domestically with its most recent film. That means that the series is declining from its prime, and if the 5th one "massively underperforms" that's obviously not a rebound. 

How is that in any way controversial? It's simple fact.

 

1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$402,111,870	4,293	$108,966,307	4,234	6/24/09
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	P/DW	$352,390,543	4,088	$97,852,865	4,088	6/29/11
4	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Par.	$245,439,076	4,233	$100,038,390	4,233	6/27/14

 

Clearly these franchises still make money (some of them mostly OS), otherwise we probably wouldn't have new movies. But some of the predictions for Pirates sound like it's still as beloved and popular as it was in its heyday, and I just don't see it.

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by JennaJ

[DAR]

I think with Pirates and Transformers we'll probably see the biggest disparity between foreign and domestic for wide release

[PPZVGOS]

12 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

So in other words the most GOTGv2 was gonna do was 900-950 ww ?thats  extremely close but still not a Billion.

 

I think that it's certain that it will make more than $440M OS (which is what the original did) despite the negative FX environment. That signals a healthy increase in audience numbers in offshore markets. Remember also that comedies where language and cultural references are important (as in the case of GOTG2) tend to significantly underperform in non-Anglophone regions. I have been stressing this fact for a long time now. This affects movies such as this one or Star Wars. While Transformers, Pirates and F&F transcend linguistic/cultural barriers, hence the BO numbers we have been witnessing in recent years. Oh, and to answer your question, you are heavily overestimating GOTG2's potential. For your total to be achieved, you would need GOTG2 to make almost $500m domestic. 

 

6 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

From pro.boxoffice.com

Alien: Covenant was unleashed to audiences across 34 overseas markets this weekend, scaring up #1 finishes in 19 of those markets.

The sci-fi thriller performed best in South Korea, where it posted a $7.2 million debut (including previews) from 845 screens. Other top markets include the UK ($6.3M, 1430 Screens), France ($4.5M, 685 Screens), Australia ($3M, 257 Screens), and Mexico ($2.4M, 1695 Screens).

Fox reports that these numbers are 4% bigger than Mad Max: Fury Road for the same markets at current exchange rates.

Alien: Covenant will expand to 52 additional markets next weekend to coincide with its North America (US & Canada) debut, including Germany, Russia, and Sweden.

 

Mad Max made $225m OS. Not that great in this day and age. Why not compare with Prometheus? Maybe because Alien: Covenant would look poor by comparison? Oh, and the FX rates again come into play. I'm negatively surprised by the UK & Australian numbers. 

 

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 We had lots of 340-350m+ grossers last year but it was just a random event, doing more than 370m remains hard and rare.

 

Both 2015 & 2016 were extremely top heavy in terms of BO. Maybe this year will be a bit more balanced. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

6 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

Uhm... yeah? Transformers has had diminishing returns domestically. Clearly so. That would mean, in other words, that the series is declining from its prime. 

How is that in any way controversial? It's simple fact.

 

1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$402,111,870	4,293	$108,966,307	4,234	6/24/09
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	P/DW	$352,390,543	4,088	$97,852,865	4,088	6/29/11
3	Transformers	P/DW	$319,246,193	4,050	$70,502,384	4,011	7/3/07
4	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Par.	$245,439,076	4,233	$100,038,390	4,233	6/27/14

 

Clearly these franchises still make money (some of them mostly OS), otherwise we probably wouldn't have new movies. But some of the predictions for Pirates sound like it's still as beloved and popular as it was in its heyday, and I just don't see it.

You don't see it because you don't want to see it.

 

And i was talking OS-wise. Never mind DOM-wise. What I'm saying that you're being a bit pessimistic on how certain franchises does at the box office. You're treating it as a fact. Do you really think franchises would stop doing more sequels because of simple DOM-decline? It sounds like you want the film to fail......just to have the next one fall even lower.

Edited May 14, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, GiantCALBears said:

So I guess we're going to forget The Circle is her most recent film? Lol

 

Oh, please. You know very well that BatB is a mammoth hit because of perfect blend of actress and character. That's the secret of big boxoffice stars - pick as many roles that audience wants to see you in. 

 

Circle wasn't even advertised much so putting the blame on Emma or using it as a proof that her casting in BatB had nothing to do with BatB success doesn't hold. 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You don't see it because you don't want to see it.

 

And i was talking OS-wise. Never mind DOM-wise. What I'm saying that you're being a bit pessimistic on how certain franchises does at the box office. You're treating it as a fact. Do you really think franchises would stop doing more sequels because of simple DOM-decline?

You are putting words there. Discussion was about pirates' performance not about whether it will get sequel or not.

[GiantCALBears]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Oh, please. You know very well that BatB is a mammoth hit because of perfect blend of actress and character. That's the secret of big boxoffice stars - pick as many roles that audience wants to see you in. 

 

Circle wasn't even advertised much so putting the blame on Emma or using it as a proof that her casting in BatB had nothing to do with BatB success doesn't hold. 

 

It was partially a joke but this response is exactly why it partially wasn't. 

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, DAR said:

I think with Pirates and Transformers we'll probably see the biggest disparity between foreign and domestic for wide release

 

I don't know if those can top F8, which currently has an 18% domestic to 82% foreign ratio.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 minute ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

You are putting words there. Discussion was about pirates' performance not about whether it will get sequel or not.

Yeah, i was meaning Pirates as well. It's just that he thinks the upcoming Pirates-films will do nothing but drop off further and further, DOM-wise because the appeal isn't there anymore.

[DAR]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

 

I don't know if those can top F8, which currently has an 18% domestic to 82% foreign ratio.

I think it could be close.

[JennaJ]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You don't see it because you don't want to see it.

 

And i was talking OS-wise. Never mind DOM-wise. What I'm saying that you're being a bit pessimistic on how certain franchises does at the box office. You're treating it as a fact. Do you really think franchises would stop doing more sequels because of simple DOM-decline?

 

Eh, don't assume motives. I really could care less about Pirates as a franchise, it's not one I'm invested in one way or the other.

I was sharing that I don't feel the hype for this in my circle of friends/co-workers/family. That's anecdotal and might not mean much, but it's still the sense I get.

 

I never said it's a fact that this will underperform, but it is a fact that this franchise has been declining and has spent years on the shelf. We'll see how it does I guess.

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Yeah, i was meaning Pirates as well. It's just that he thinks the upcoming Pirates-films will do nothing but drop off further and further, DOM-wise because the appeal isn't there anymore.

Uhh.. not upcoming just this part. And majority thinks like that while many wants it to do good.?

[Brainiac5]

15 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

I think that it's certain that it will make more than $440M OS (which is what the original did) despite the negative FX environment. That signals a healthy increase in audience numbers in offshore markets. Remember also that comedies where language and cultural references are important (as in the case of GOTG2) tend to significantly underperform in non-Anglophone regions. I have been stressing this fact for a long time now. This affects movies such as this one or Star Wars. While Transformers, Pirates and F&F transcend linguistic/cultural barriers, hence the BO numbers we have been witnessing in recent years. Oh, and to answer your question, you are heavily overestimating GOTG2's potential. For your total to be achieved, you would need GOTG2 to make almost $500m domestic. 

 

How?

If the film is gonna end let's say 350 domestic and 450foreign  ,does the exchange rates equal to 550 foreign? If not then it never had a chance at a Billion.

the only way we can say the film lost its chance is if it's final total after you take Exchange rates into consideration adjust for it to cross a Billion.

IMHO it was never A Billion dollar film.

although very successful.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Brainiac5

[JennaJ]

12 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

It sounds like you want the film to fail......just to have the next one fall even lower.

 

LOL what? 

 

I could care less about this movie. This is one movie I honestly have no investment in - for good or bad.

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by JennaJ

[MrFanaticGuy34]

3 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

LOL what? 

 

I could care less about this movie. This is one movie I honestly have no investment in - for good or bad.

 

And then you're gonna say "Called it!" if you happen to be right? Even hate the movie due to lack of investment and say it sucks? ?

 

Lol, indeed.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[JennaJ]

[John Marston]

Also Power Rangers

flopped in China