Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[John Marston]

Just now, a2knet said:

 

I think 1b is too big a number for even 250+ China to make possible.

240 dom + 260 China + 110 Japan = 610.

Removing China and Japan, rest of OS imo is likely to bring 300+ opposed to 400+.

I think 250-300 China makes 900+ more real while 1b will require POTC4 like Dom (240) and 100 Japan and then 400 OS-Ch-Japan.

 

 

I agree it is not guaranteed bu I wouldn't say impossible

 

 

it is a popular franchise and it is getting a strong marketing push

[Cmasterclay]

I'm having trouble predicting Alien next weekend. On the one hand, it's a big franchise, reviews and presales are pretty alright, market is empty, and marketing is everywhere - I can't turn on the TV or log on Youtube without getting ad after ad for it. On the other hand, the previews hadn't had a hook, it has no stars, I'm not sure how much value this franchise has left especially among younger horror loving crowds, and buzz feels real muted, at least among people I know. I can see anything from 30m to 55m for it and not be stunned. 

[a2k]

Thinking 45 ow/2.35x/105 dom for ALIEN:C

[Napoleon]

The Boss Baby finally passed Home at same point in time of its release. $200M finish here we go.

 

DreamWorks Animation:

 

 

[YM!]

Just now, Napoleon said:

The Boss Baby finally passed Home at same point in time of its release. $200M finish here we go.

 

DreamWorks Animation:

 

 

I have to say Dreamworks did a major rebound from 2014. Never thought of Boss Baby outgrossing Lego Batman. Captain Underpants will likely continue the $150M streak Domestic for DWA.

[grey ghost]

27 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Unprofessional?  WTF

 

Hey, it's hard counting all that money. 

[grim22]

Just now, YourMother said:

I have to say Dreamworks did a major rebound from 2014. Never thought of Boss Baby outgrossing Lego Batman. Captain Underpants will likely continue the $150M streak Domestic for DWA.

 

CU will need a huge OW to come anywhere near 150M as it won't get a 3x thanks to Cars 3 and DM3 releasing within a month of it. Thinking 40/110 currently thanks to a very crowded marketplace.

[Cmasterclay]

I think Aliens does an OW weekend similar to Mad Max with worse legs. So about 43/108 is where I'll put it.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

CU will need a huge OW to come anywhere near 150M as it won't get a 3x thanks to Cars 3 and DM3 releasing within a month of it. Thinking 40/110 currently thanks to a very crowded marketplace.

I'm going to sound a bit naive for asking but how competition is a bigger deal for CU? BB is doing $175M+ and dealt with Beast and Smurfs. Even summer family movies like Turbo, Planes, Kubo and Pete's Dragon pulled of 3x multiples.

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm having trouble predicting Alien next weekend. On the one hand, it's a big franchise, reviews and presales are pretty alright, market is empty, and marketing is everywhere - I can't turn on the TV or log on Youtube without getting ad after ad for it. On the other hand, the previews hadn't had a hook, it has no stars, I'm not sure how much value this franchise has left especially among younger horror loving crowds, and buzz feels real muted, at least among people I know. I can see anything from 30m to 55m for it and not be stunned. 

 

I'm thinking 40/100 currently. If not for Prometheus already happening, the ceiling would have been much higher.

[commonsense88]

54 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Not to mention these cross overs are getting stupid and repetitive, it's a pretty strong indication the story is not where it needs to be. Stop turning every MCU film into a mini Avengers/Civil War. 

Crossovers make more sense then them pretending not to know each other or ask for help when the world is endangered, it's just commonsense story wise

[Xavier]

Not really surprised about Guardians not connecting OS. The rest of the world doesn't seem to fall head over heels for the MCU movies that don't involve Iron Man. 

 

Plus, the movie was a bloated mess, although it improved a lot in the end (Yondu stole the movie). Also, Chris Pratt can't act for his life except for goofy/funny lines. His "dramatic" moments were laughable. Add more Stallone in part 3!!

[John Marston]

still no overseas number for Alien Covenant. It opened it a large number of markets including the UK and Australia

[grim22]

Just now, YourMother said:

I'm going to sound a bit naive for asking but how competition is a bigger deal for CU? BB is doing $175M+ and dealt with Beast and Smurfs. Even summer family movies like Turbo, Planes, Kubo and Pete's Dragon pulled of 3x multiples.

 

BB had no direct animated competition releasing after it. Planes, Kubo and Petes Dragon all released in August and had no competition either. Smurfs pretty much tanked helping out BB (and frankly wasn't promoted like an event movie). Cars 3 and DM3 are both 50M animated openers at the very least which hurts the animated movies in the market. Look at what DM2 did to Monsters U, it pretty much knocked 30M off MU's final tally. CU will see that happen to it twice in a month on the weeks it would normally stabilize.

[commonsense88]

44 minutes ago, James said:

Eh, that is a bomb if I've ever seen one. Still want to see Arthur though.

And I really don't get why GotG is so underwhelming OS. With the reception of the first one I would've thought it would fly past what the first one did. It will barely beat it (and no, the ER is not THAT horrible). 

It's a comedy more than action sci do, harder to sale, sure foreign audiences don't even understand the jokes

[grey ghost]

OS audiences don't really dig space opera in general.

 

Rogue One only made around 500 m OS.

 

Domestically it's one of the biggest movies ever.

[JennaJ]

Exchange rates aren't an excuse for why a movie doesn't reach 1B. 

 

 But if you want to compare how GOTG V2 is doing OS compared to GOTG, and you don't take XR into consideration, you're comparing apples to oranges.

[Brainiac5]

3 minutes ago, commonsense88 said:

It's a comedy more than action sci do, harder to sale, sure foreign audiences don't even understand the jokes

I'm pretty sure they don't understand the whole movie giving the fact that the music is 80's pop culture that's out of place at times.

Not knowing about a music's culture can throw someone off especially when the film has no plot.

 

[MrGlass2]

Quote

1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$1,206.5
2	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$1,193.4

 

Family just $13M behind Beauty.

 

[Brainiac5]

4 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

Exchange rates aren't an excuse for why a movie doesn't reach 1B. 

 

 But if you want to compare how GOTG V2 is doing OS compared to GOTG, and you don't take XR into consideration, you're comparing apples to oranges.

We can Take them into consideration but we can't say that it's really the problem when we have two films to cross a Billion already.

As someone else said the overseas audience just isn't into space Oprah films.

So the argument can be made that the film never had the fan base to cross a Billion anyway in 2017.