Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I'm thinking 40/100 currently. If not for Prometheus already happening, the ceiling would have been much higher.

 

IMO that 2.5x multi is optimistic.

PTHEUS did 2.5x with 51/126. I see this being more front-loaded as a sequel, that too to a movie with mixed reception.

Increasing emphasis on Thu previews will front-load it more compared to PTHEUS.

For 100+ I think it will need mid-40s ow.

Edited May 14, 2017 by a2knet

[The Futurist]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

OS audiences don't really dig space opera in general.

 

Rogue One only made around 500 m OS.

 

Domestically it's one of the biggest movies ever.

 

Yup, people forget Guardians has more to do with Star Wars and Star Trek than Iron Man and Batman.

It is put in the superhero family but not really.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by The Futurist

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Brainiac5 said:

 

As someone else said the overseas audience just isn't into space Oprah films.

 

 

I would love a space Oprah movie just for the camp value

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I would love a space Oprah movie just for the camp value

 

[SteveJaros]

1 hour ago, GiantCALBears said:

That's because it is a walk up film, pretty easy to understand why... 

 

"Walk up" implies a last-second, casual decision to attend something. A movie doesn't make $250m DOM in 10 days off that kind of mindset. That comes from lots of folks having it in their mind well in advance to see a movie. So the pattern isn't very well explained by your hypothesis. 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Pirates has big chances to hit $ 1b.

 

Probably will gross $ 500 - 550m in USA / China alone.

 

Just need $ 450 - 500m OS without China (pirates 4 made $ 734m).

Obviously it will loose some public, and exchange rates are bad... But $ 450 - 500m are a big $ 234 - 284m drop from the last movie, i don't think it will drop more than that.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I would love a space Oprah movie just for the camp value

Maybe she could make an appearance in the set-in-space F&F11.

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

"Walk up" implies a last-second, casual decision to attend something. A movie doesn't make $250m DOM in 10 days off that kind of mindset. That comes from lots of folks having it in their mind well in advance to see a movie. So the pattern isn't very well explained by your hypothesis. 

 

 

Not really. Walk up simply means people who walk up to the counter to buy tickets. No way to judge whether they planned beforehand or not. Just refers to the people who don't buy advance tickets since that's an easier metric to measure.

[grey ghost]

I really hope space Oprah doesn't collect all six infinity stones. 

[Brainiac5]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I would love a space Oprah movie just for the camp value

Lmao ? Sorry typo.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I would love a space Oprah movie just for the camp value

Wrinkle in Time is coming out soon.

[Premium George]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Pirates has big chances to hit $ 1b.

 

Probably will gross $ 500 - 550m in USA / China alone.

 

Just need $ 450 - 500m OS without China (pirates 4 made $ 734m).

Obviously it will loose some public, and exchange rates are bad... But $ 450 - 500m are a big $ 234 - 284m drop from the last movie, i don't think it will drop more than that.

Your us+china is high. More like 425-500. @Olive and @POTUS could tell better.

[grey ghost]

Can Despicable Me 3 beat Pirates WW?

[PPZVGOS]

22 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

Exchange rates aren't an excuse for why a movie doesn't reach 1B. 

 

 But if you want to compare how GOTG V2 is doing OS compared to GOTG, and you don't take XR into consideration, you're comparing apples to oranges.

 

It's not about "excuses". It's about the USD value of overseas tickets sold. 

 

Let's assume, for the sake of simplicity, that the rest of the world only uses euros. If the euro devalues by 20% versus the USD, then a movie will have to sell 20% more tickets just to make the same USD amount as its predecessor did. If a movie sells exactly the same tickets as its predecessor, then its cume when expressed in USD terms will be 20% lower than a movie released before the euro devaluation. 

 

In short, since late 2014, OS grosses have been massively depressed by the strong dollar, or what comes to the same thing, weak euro/pound/yen/ruble/peso/crone etc etc etc...

 

So, let's assume that GOTG2 had to sell tickets in an environment were the weighted average of currency values is 20% lower than it was for the original in 2014. As that movie made $440M OS, if its sequel now sells the exact same number of tickets in the exact same markets, then GOTG2 will make 440M x 0.8 = $352M 

 

So, the simple truth is, that the exchange rates are a massive factor when it comes to OS BO. In the short and even mid-term, it's the most important factor by far. 

 

Edit: A strong USD even depressed the domestic box-office since that includes the Canadian market which must be around 10% of the domestic total. Since the Canadian dollar has devalued by around 30% since 2014, then this simply means that the domestic BO has been depressed by around 3%. A not-negligible percentage. The degree to which Hollywood would love a weak USD cannot be overstated. 

Edited May 14, 2017 by PPZVGOS

[YM!]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Can Despicable Me 3 beat Pirates WW?

Yes but DM3 will barely get to $1B thinking more like $290M/$1B.

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

"Walk up" implies a last-second, casual decision to attend something. A movie doesn't make $250m DOM in 10 days off that kind of mindset. That comes from lots of folks having it in their mind well in advance to see a movie. So the pattern isn't very well explained by your hypothesis. 

 

 

People are trying to find reasons to argue that GotG2 is different (walk-up, family movie) from the average MCU movie to keep the hope of $400M alive, but it is not happening.

[The Futurist]

Best and worst case scenario for celestial beings, domestic, people ?

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

People are trying to find reasons to argue that GotG2 is different (walk-up, family movie) from the average MCU movie to keep the hope of $400M alive, but it is not happening.

Only 1 or 2 posters are saying that. Most are assuming 2.6x after this good second weekend.

[baumer]

Pirates of the Caribbean was once very popular overseas and I guess it could be this time as well but Johnny Depp's shine has definitely been dimmed over the last few years. I don't see Pirates coming anywhere close to a billion. I wouldn't be surprised with a sub 200 finish here and maybe two hundred million in China. I don't think it's getting 600 million from other markets. My guess at this point would be perhaps 800 or 850.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

People are trying to find reasons to argue that GotG2 is different (walk-up, family movie) from the average MCU movie to keep the hope of $400M alive, but it is not happening.

Yeah. $400M isn't happening imo. But I can see it doing $380M but that's the maximum.