The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

I think we'll have a better idea of where Solo is going to open after the tickets go on sale. However $170M doesn't sound too far off. I personally have it at $150M for the 4-day as of right now. Kinda surprised they didn't wait until tickets went on sale to release tracking but then realized it's three weeks out which is when initial tracking comes out. 

 

Also good reviews will help it  

[Porthos]

For the record, Deadline might be getting ahead of its skis a little.

 

THR has access to the same data and is calling for 160+ for the 4day.

 

According to that article NRG is saying 135, though as I said in the Solo thread, I don't know if that is for 3 or 4 day.

 

[narniadis]

Just now, Porthos said:

For the record, Deadline might be getting ahead of its skis a little.

 

THR has access to the same data and is calling for 160+ for the 4day.

 

According to that article NRG is saying 135, though as I said in the Solo thread, I don't know if that is for 3 or 4 day.

 

That would make more sense in comparison to my personal expectations (150m 4day) I can't see it going under 100m 3-day regardless, but maybe it ends up playing like Indy 4 with 125-130m over the 4 days

[WrathOfHan]

My current prediction is 105/135 (3/4 day), so that number would be pretty spot on. Hype still feels nowhere near the level of Rogue One.

[The Mad Titan]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

My current prediction is 105/135 (3/4 day), so that number would be pretty spot on. Hype still feels nowhere near the level of Rogue One.

$30 million Memorial Day?

 

That’s not happening on $105m 3-day.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My current prediction is 105/135 (3/4 day), so that number would be pretty spot on. Hype still feels nowhere near the level of Rogue One.

Quote

Tracking is hardly an exact science. When Rogue Onefirst came on tracking three weeks before its release, projections showed the movie debuting to $130 million-plus domestically.

From the link:

 

Quote

Stand-alone film Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — one of the biggest box-office curiosities of the year — is projected to open to $130-million-plus in North America over the Dec. 16-18 weekend, which would mark the second-biggest December opening of all time behind last year's Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The movie came on tracking Tuesday morning, with one service suggesting it could even approach $150 million. (Conversely, another service has it opening in the high $120-million range, underscoring what a guessing game tracking can be.)

 

Just so we know where R1 was standing at the same point in time.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Porthos

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Just so we know where R1 was standing at the same point in time.

Justice League was at 110M+ as well  

[Porthos]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Justice League was at 110M+ as well  

There is a yuge difference between 160m+ and 110m+.

[The Panda]

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There is a yuge difference between 160m+ and 110m+.

There’s also a huge difference between Batfleck and Star Wars

[Barnack]

Today sales:

 

Avengers	33505
Deadpool	1436
Overboar	1046
I Feel P	724
A Quiet	664
Black Pa	444
Tully (2	410
Like Arr	272
Rampage	246
Super Tr	219
Ready Pl	209
Naa Peru	208
Blockers	166
Bad Sama	165
Traffik	110
Isle of	89
Blumhous	71
MUSE DRO	58
RBG	53
Breaking	52
Tyler Pe	51
I Can On	46
Disobedi	43
Chappaqu	37
102 Not	34
Life of	33
Sherlock	22

 

 

Never heard of  Like Arrows before but that released may 1 apparently, 3:1 sales for Overboard vs Tully is not too far of trade prediction, specially if Overboard is more walk up heavy than a movie from a director with a fanbase like I would imagine.

 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Barnack

[LonePirate]

I would be very weary of low-balling Solo. It is the first family friendly major release since AIW, provided you consider AIW a family film. If not, then you have to go back to Rampage. Either way, that is a lot of pent up demand for a film parents can take their kids to see. Now add in the Star Wars faithful and a holiday weekend. $200M over the four days should surprise absolutely nobody. It might not happen but the conditions certainly exist for it to happen.

[Cooper Legion]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Today sales:

 

Avengers	217606
Deadpool	7176
A Quiet	4539
I Feel P	3968
Black Pa	2768
Overboar	2103
Super Tr	1857
Rampage	1844
Blockers	1354
Ready Pl	1256
Like Arr	963
Traffik	792
Tully (2	754
Blumhous	670
Labyrint	622
Isle of	509
Naa Peru	441
Bad Sama	345
Tyler Pe	249

 

 

Never heard of  Like Arrows before but that released may 1 apparently, 3:1 sales for Overboard vs Tully is not too far of trade prediction, specially if Overboard is more walk up heavy than a movie from a director with a fanbase like I would imagine.

More than triple the sales of Mon/Tues/Wed. Seems safe to say that many of them must be for the upcoming weekend at this point, so I think we can pretty safely say that the gap between Fandango % and BO% on Wednesday has to do with more weekend sales on Wednesday.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

More than triple the sales of Mon/Tues/Wed. Seems safe to say that many of them must be for the upcoming weekend at this point, so I think we can pretty safely say that the gap between Fandango % and BO% on Wednesday has to do with more weekend sales on Wednesday.

I think I made a manipulation mistake to take all the sales instead of just that day, I thought 200k was a bit crazy, real numbers of the day:

 

Avengers	33505
Deadpool	1436
Overboar	1046
I Feel P	724
A Quiet	664
Black Pa	444
Tully (2	410
Like Arr	272
Rampage	246
Super Tr	219
Ready Pl	209
Naa Peru	208
Blockers	166
Bad Sama	165
Traffik	110
Isle of	89
Blumhous	71
MUSE DRO	58
RBG	53
Breaking	52
Tyler Pe	51
I Can On	46
Disobedi	43
Chappaqu	37
102 Not	34
Life of	33
Sherlock	22

[Cooper Legion]

Well, that makes more sense.

[Eric Prime]

Theater Update:

Bad Samaritan	2	852	0.23%
Overboard	16	1323	1.21%

 

Bad Samaritan Comps:

3% of Happy Death Day ($8.8M)

6% of Winchester ($5.6M)

 

Overboard Comps:

228% of Downsizing ($17.5M)

400% of Father Figures ($13.1M)

20% of Game Night ($3.4M)

25% of Blockers ($5.1M)

 

What a way to kick off the summer. Good job studios!

[TLK]

One good thing about Solo is that they are not hiding it. The tracking may improve if it plays well at Cannes the week after next.

[LonePirate]

I just checked the first showing tonight for Tully at three of theaters near me which are playing it. The film has sold a total of 3 tickets (1, 2 and 0) as of right now. Granted, it’s not a Thursday night preview sort of film but those numbers are horrendous. I won’t have to worry about facing a sell-out when I see it tomorrow.

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

What a way to kick off the summer. Good job studios!

If you were one, would you release something wide that need a big OW during Avengers weekend #2 ?

[Lordmandeep]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

I would be very weary of low-balling Solo. It is the first family friendly major release since AIW, provided you consider AIW a family film. If not, then you have to go back to Rampage. Either way, that is a lot of pent up demand for a film parents can take their kids to see. Now add in the Star Wars faithful and a holiday weekend. $200M over the four days should surprise absolutely nobody. It might not happen but the conditions certainly exist for it to happen.

True but if fanboys like me are the fence about seeing this and likely wont be going 2 3 times to see this and also bringing along a ton of friends and family.

 

I dont see how it will out open RO after the release of TLJ.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[filmlover]

54 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Theater Update:

Bad Samaritan	2	852	0.23%
Overboard	16	1323	1.21%

 

Bad Samaritan Comps:

3% of Happy Death Day ($8.8M)

6% of Winchester ($5.6M)

 

Overboard Comps:

228% of Downsizing ($17.5M)

400% of Father Figures ($13.1M)

20% of Game Night ($3.4M)

25% of Blockers ($5.1M)

 

What a way to kick off the summer. Good job studios!

Well, summer movie season started a week earlier than expected.