The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[narniadis]

Sticking with my 140m for Deadpool predict....

 

Showdogs should be a 5m bomb judging by the limited (for us) showtimes I see... but then again, the data doesnt lie and the last true kiddie flick was eons ago.

[dxmatrixdt]

Show Dogs has some good PG eye candy (Son of the Mask?) and it has about ten tv spots on YouTube.  

I think Show Dogs will open higher than Nine Lives and might get to 30m total if it can retain screens during the first few weeks of June if the schedule compliments Show Dogs.

Nine Lives (2016)

EC

$19,700,032

2,264

$6,249,915

2,264

8/5/2016

 

Last year, Wimpy 4 opened the same weekend before Memorial Day and grossed about the same as Nine Lives total.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul

Fox

$20,738,724

3,174

$7,126,084

3,157

5/19/2017

 

 

Edited May 16, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[dxmatrixdt]

Looks like all 3 openers will be opening much wider than I anticipated.  Hopefully that means the first few weeks of June will be getting good looks for the non tentpole films... - Adrift, Action Point, Upgrade, Hereditary, Hotel Artemis, Soulfly and Tag.

 

May 18 Estimates
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - Deadpool 2 Fox 4,200 - - 1 2 - Show Dogs Global Road 3,145 - - 1 3 - Book Club Paramount 2,800 - - 1 4 - Pope Francis - A Man of His Word Focus Features 350 - - 1

[TwoMisfits]

So, still way busy, but it's another tentpole weekend, so here's my 2nd local (Regal) - surprisingly the Cinemark is very slow this weekend to set, but here's how Regal sees it...

 

NEW

Deadpool 2 (3 - 15 showings) (this is less than every opening super set for the past 6-8 months - this is a supers selling, 12-45 aged male theater, so I'm surprised it didn't get the norm 4 screen set that each supers movie since at least Thor 3 has gotten)

Book Club (1 - 5 showings)

Show Dogs (1 - 5 showings)

 

Returning

Breaking In (1)

Life of the Party (1)

Overboard (1)

Avengers IW (2)

A Quiet Place (1 - this movie's continued popularity probably kept Deadpool from the 4th screen)

I Feel Pretty/Rampage (1 - each get 2 showings)

 

Gone

Everything else (I'd check, but you know:)...

Edited May 16, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	141	9796	14890	34.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today:  14 (4 non reserved theaters)

Total Seats Added Today:      709

Total Seats Sold Today:         725

 

==============================

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-9 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/90 (+0/+2) [R1: 6/106]

 

2D:  0/63 (nc) [R1: 4/70]

3D:  0/25 (nc) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 69 showings [+1] [R1: 46]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (+2) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

0 (-1) [R1: 2]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

10 (-1) [R1: 17]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 2]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/195

St:   0/197

Su:  0/194

Mo: 0/185

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (69/90 showings [+2/+2]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   2 (+1)

80-89%:   5 (-1)

70-79%:   8 (nc)

60-69%:   6 (nc)

50-59%:   3 (nc)

40-49%:   6 (+2)

30-39%:   6 (nc)

20-29%:   4 (-2)

10-19%:   7 (+1)

0-9%:     21 (+1)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	6266	9800	36.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:   2

Total Seats Added Today:     414

Total Seats Sold Today:          83

----

.5612x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 12 days of pre-sales.
.4321x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
1.078x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales) [I don't have info for day four of pre-sales for BP]
1.154x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

Edited May 16, 2018 by Porthos

[FantasticBeasts]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-9 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/90 (+0/+2) [R1: 6/106]

 

2D:  0/63 (nc) [R1: 4/70]

3D:  0/25 (nc) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 69 showings [+1] [R1: 46]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (+2) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

0 (-1) [R1: 2]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

10 (-1) [R1: 17]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 2]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/195

St:   0/197

Su:  0/194

Mo: 0/185

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (69/90 showings [+2/+2]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   2 (+1)

80-89%:   5 (-1)

70-79%:   8 (nc)

60-69%:   6 (nc)

50-59%:   3 (nc)

40-49%:   6 (+2)

30-39%:   6 (nc)

20-29%:   4 (-2)

10-19%:   7 (+1)

0-9%:     21 (+1)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	6266	9800	36.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:   2

Total Seats Added Today:     414

Total Seats Sold Today:          83

----

.5612x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 12 days of pre-sales.
.4321x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
1.078x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales) [I don't have info for day four of pre-sales for BP]
1.154x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

[Nova]

Book club is on Pulse so I think it should do good business this weekend as a counteract to DP2 

[TLK]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

Book club is on Pulse so I think it should do good business this weekend as a counteract to DP2 

FWIW, Book Club's presales for Monday/Tuesday are closely tracking I feel pretty.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

8:50AM ET - MT Update

 

24.8% - Deadpool 2

24.1% - Avengers: Infinity War

8% - Mahanati (Telugu)

7.3% - Breaking In

6.8% - Life of the Party

Edited May 16, 2018 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[Lordmandeep]

Deadpool really needs to be a massive walkup film if its going past 130 this weekend imo. 

[eXtacy]

Solo's presales look rather low for a Star Wars film. Sub 150m incoming.

[Sam]

2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Deadpool really needs to be a massive walkup film if its going past 130 this weekend imo. 

Well, the first Deadpool was big on walk ups so no reason for this one not to do the same.

 

I think 130M is a pretty safe bet. It’s 150M+ I’m not sure about 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Sam said:

Well, the first Deadpool was big on walk ups so no reason for this one not to do the same.

 

I think 130M is a pretty safe bet. It’s 150M+ I’m not sure about 

This is a sequel though so the pre-sales to walk-up ratio should be lower (in addition to it being lower just because this isn't a holiday w/e like the first)

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

This is a sequel though so the pre-sales to walk-up ratio should be lower (in addition to it being lower just because this isn't a holiday w/e like the first)

I agree. That’s why I’m not predicting a big increase from the first. I figure the upfront demand and walk-ups potential will overcome the holiday advantage the first movie has. 

 

Pre-sales at theaters near me still trailing behind GOTG2 at the moment. Though I could see Thu previews beating out GOTG2’s 17M.

[TwoMisfits]

1st local (Cinemark) is finally up...here's the set...

 

NEW

Deadpool 2 (3 - 18 showings - funny this has more showings than the other local when supers don't sell AS well here - they still do sell really well)

 

Returning (Yep, no other new movies...that's a surprise...not even foreign ones - they just held over)

Breaking In (1)

Life of the Party (1)

Mahanati (1)

Razi/102 Not Out (1 - 2 showings each)

Overboard (1)

AIW (3)

A Quiet Place (1 - again, I think this would have been Deadpool's 4th screen, but it's being held b/c it's still really popular)

 

Gone

Everything Else

 

 

[narniadis]

Yeah I think there will be lots of meltdowns this weekend. 

 

Book Club does way better than this board expects (not the target audience at all) 

 

Deadpool isnt as strong as some assumed it would be. 

 

This is turning into May 2007 all over again. 

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yeah I think there will be lots of meltdowns this weekend. 

 

Book Club does way better than this board expects (not the target audience at all) 

 

Deadpool isnt as strong as some assumed it would be. 

 

This is turning into May 2007 all over again. 

2

 

 

But IW is no Spider Man 3 

[DAJK]

My boss really thinks DP2 is going to drop hard. At my theatre at least. It’s a 3-day weekend here, and the movie is on our 2 biggest screens as opposed to the first which was only on 1. I’d be shocked myself if it doesn’t at least match the first movie’s first 7 days

[MCKillswitch123]

28 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yeah I think there will be lots of meltdowns this weekend. 

 

Book Club does way better than this board expects (not the target audience at all) 

 

Deadpool isnt as strong as some assumed it would be. 

 

This is turning into May 2007 all over again. 

Well, sorta..... I mean, IW doesn't have brutal legs and poor wom like Emo Pakrer: The Movie. Also, DP2 probably won't have anything close to bad wom either (even if its OW is relatively disappointing).

 

Solo, though.... oof. That will be the ultimate test of just how powerful the Star Wars brand can be imo.

Edited May 16, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Lordmandeep]

DP is around 35-40% of IW presales around these parts for Thursday.