The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MrGlass2]

23 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I do not think Captain Marvel is selling so well 

10 days in advance? It is selling extremely well.

 

MT

2019-02-26 20:00:34.351618 UTC
1	26.8%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	7.3%	Captain Marvel
3	6.6%	Alita: Battle Angel
4	6%	Fighting with My Family
5	5.6%	Isn't It Romantic

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-25 15:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.917%	11520	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	16.459%	7913	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	09.035%	4352	Alita Battle Angel
4	05.633%	2713	Fighting with My Family
5	04.893%	2357	Isnt It Romantic

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

26 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I do not think Captain Marvel is selling so well

obv I'm not an expert of presales 🤷🏼‍♂️

Clearly 

[Legion Again]

The fandango 24 hour numbers are a bit concerning compared to BP, but as BP had its red carpet premiere already and CM’s is next week for Oscar/spoiler reasons it’s pretty difficult to draw too many conclusions from that. We’ll just have to see how things are in a week.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The fandango 24 hour numbers are a bit concerning compared to BP, but as BP had its red carpet premiere already and CM’s is next week for Oscar/spoiler reasons it’s pretty difficult to draw too many conclusions from that. We’ll just have to see how things are in a week.

How concerning, like doing just a little bit more than half the number of a freaking 200m openner ? Or really concerning ?

[Legion Again]

Just now, Barnack said:

How concerning, like doing just a little bit more than half the number of a freaking 200m openner ? Or really concerning ?

Yesterday was more than half, but as you can see from CoolEric’s couple posts on the matter it’s been an average of more like a third for the past 7 days. 1/3 to 1/2 of 200M is ~70-100M, which would be very dissapointing results and not at all in line with other indicators. 

[Eric S'ennui]

It's important to recognize that the data I have is still very incomplete and shouldn't be direct comparisons. The only Black Panther data I have is after the movie's premiere on the 30th. It also had a shorter presales window time compared to CM (BP had 39 days, CM 60). That complicates things a lot. But this is all that we got, and it's still important to recognize that's still a long ways away, and the gap between the two has been steadily decreasing from day to day.

[TwoMisfits]

The other thing with BP comparisons to CM is that some localities' performances would have predicted a $150M OW for BP (like Toronto)...and some would have predicted a $300M opener (like Atlanta)...so, how it's preselling vs BP is only helpful if you know if your market was a wild overperformer, an underperformer, or somewhere in the middle for BP...so, about the most helpful comparison will be on the national numbers (aka total Fandango presales between the 2, but not city by city seat comparisons)...

 

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yesterday was more than half, but as you can see from CoolEric’s couple posts on the matter it’s been an average of more like a third for the past 7 days. 1/3 to 1/2 of 200M is ~70-100M, which would be very dissapointing results and not at all in line with other indicators. 

You can’t compare just the past days, CM have 21 days more of presales. Also, in the past 7 days CM have just twitter reactions, BP have a worldwide premiere at the same point which bumps the numbers a lot more (and yesterday for example, BP already have review embargo lifted which also boosted sales, CM doesn’t). Also the gap is decreasing, CM was great on Fandango yesterday and today seems even better.

 

It’s really cool to have this data and comparisons, but you can’t use this alone to make a projection for CM. The minimum this will do is probably the $ 120M THR last tracking suggests.

[TLK]

Captain Marvel must have received a good boost from Oscars given that the actors were presenters. Did they also run an ad for the movie during the telecast ?

[Nova]

It’s concerning that Captain Marvel isn’t doing what Black Panther did in presales? Black Panther was a $200M+ opener that also had a holiday weekend in its back pocket. 

 

Theres nothing concerning about CM’s presales. It’s looking pretty solid for $150M+ OW with the bigger breakout potential there depending on reviews and WOM. 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, TLK said:

Captain Marvel must have received a good boost from Oscars given that the actors were presenters. Did they also run an ad for the movie during the telecast ?

Yes they had trailers in very good spot.

[JB33]

It would be ideal if we could get a comparison to Beauty and the Beast presales.

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It would be ideal if we could get a comparison to Beauty and the Beast presales.

 

That's a great idea!

 

👀

[Nova]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

That's a great idea!

 

👀

👀

[LeoC]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

That's a great idea!

 

👀

I am getting the "updates are coming" vibe.

[Legion Again]

GMe: “Interpreted naively, the BP:CM Fandango ratio is concerning for CM, and here’s why you shouldn’t do that”    

 

Barnack: “is it actually concerning?”     

 

Me: “yes, the crude interpretation is 70-100, which would be very concerning”

 

Everyone else: “well actually, those numbers come from interpreting the data naively, and you shouldn’t do that”    

 

 

Like, what? There are some reading comprehension issues at play in that exchange 😛

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Deep Wang]

lmao, I don't have anything, I was just agreeing that that sounds like a good idea!

 

I've wanted to give my source a break since Alita, because I know I'm gonna bug them a lot between CM and EG.

 

I have three specific days in mind coming up I want to get(I'm sure you guys can guess which ones), so nothing until then 😉

 

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Deep Wang

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It would be ideal if we could get a comparison to Beauty and the Beast presales.

May be not. Captain Marvel will be to BaTB as in a Star Wars film is to MCU in term of presales.

In simple words, superhero film will be more pre sale heavy.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

lmao, I don't have anything, I was just agreeing that that sounds like a good idea!

 

I've wanted to give my source a break since Alita, because I know I'm gonna bug them a lot between CM and EG.

 

I have three specific days in mind coming up I want to get(I'm sure you guys can guess which ones), so nothing until then 😉

 

 

Just a question, if you don't mind. The numbers you share are presale for some region or some ticketing portal or all pre-sales for North America.

 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Just a question, if you don't mind. The numbers you share are presale for some region or some ticketing portal or all pre-sales for North America.

 

National for a certain large theater chain

Edited February 27, 2019 by Thanos Legion