The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Prime]

21 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos

 

Our local theater chain is showing 2D and 2D IMAX. No 3D. 

 

And for Thursday preview both IMAX locations are a Tele sell out for 7PM and half way sold for 9:45PM. (On mobile so cant check for the rest of the weekend)

@Telemachos I need answers

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Telemachos I need answers

IIRC, a "Tele sellout" is front row or less left.  It was his metric on whether or not a theater was sold out when he still deigned had the time/motivation to do sellout reports. 

[Nova]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Telemachos I need answers

Tele buys out certain show times across the country. Especially showtimes for Disney movies. Its his way of helping keep his (former?) employer afloat financially. @captainwondyful just happened to get lucky and one of the showtimes at her theaters happened to be the one he bought out. 

Edited February 28, 2019 by Nova

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Tele buys out certain show times across the country. Especially showtimes for Disney movies. Its his way of helping keep his (former?) employer afloat financially. @captainwondyful just happened to get lucky and one of the showtimes at her theaters happened to be the one he bought out. 

But...but...Uncle Grandpa @Telemachos says he was never actually employed by Disney. 

[MrGlass2]

Captain Marvel #1 on Fandango:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-26 22:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.110%	10083	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	16.661%	8354	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	09.537%	4782	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
4	07.236%	3628	Alita Battle Angel
5	04.497%	2255	Captain Marvel

 

MT

2019-02-28 03:00:30.161534 UTC
1	27.4%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	10.6%	Captain Marvel
3	6.5%	Alita: Battle Angel
4	6.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
5	5%	Fighting with My Family

[poweranimals]

It's crazy how well it's tracking and it doesn't even come out until NEXT weekend.

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Tele buys out certain show times across the country. Especially showtimes for Disney movies. Its his way of helping keep his (former?) employer afloat financially. @captainwondyful just happened to get lucky and one of the showtimes at her theaters happened to be the one he bought out. 

I am very excited to sit beside him and blow his ear off with the OMG CAROL screams. 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

But...but...Uncle Grandpa @Telemachos says he was never actually employed by Disney. 

Rumor has it Disney pays @Telemachos to buy out theaters so he can shepherd his Lab Rats revival pitch so it can air on Disney+...

Edited February 28, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Rumor has it Disney pays @Telemachos to buy out theaters so he can shepherd his Lab Rats revival pitch...

[Premium George]

Guys, please compare fandago data. That's the most important data behind deep wang numbers. 

[Porthos]

On 1/31/2019 at 10:23 PM, Porthos said:

A note about this.

 

The two 6pm 'Opening Night Fan Events' for Century Arden disappeared from all ticketing sites that I can find, including Cinemark's.  Unlike AMC it's very rare for Cinemark/Century to completely de-list a showing once it sells out, though I think I've seen it happen very occasionally.

 

There were six and nine seats left in those two showings, so it is possible some Marvel-stans came by today, bought them out, and then Century Arden delisted it for whatever reason.  I suspect, however, that it's more likely a computer glitch somewhere along the line.  So I have NOT included those 15 tickets, nor the two mooted sellouts, in today's bloc.

 

If those showings don't re-appear soon enough, say a few days, I'll go ahead and re-adjust this day's total for the tickets sold and the two sellouts, and all of the subsequent stat blocks.

 

Better to be a bit cautious than set some folks up for disappointment if I had to take two sellouts off the board, I reckon.

 

On 2/3/2019 at 9:46 PM, Porthos said:

 

Well, those showtimes are still off the board 72 hours later, so I have to presume that they are in fact either sold out, or Century Arden decided it didn't like money and just took them off the board prematurely, losing a few hundred dollars in the process (as they most certainly would have eventually sold out).

 

As such, and as the quoted post now shows, I went back and added two sellouts and 15 sold seats (6 for one showing, 9 for the other) to Thursday's total and all subsequent days.  

 

If they do pop back up I'll first swear quietly under my breath.  Then, depending on just how much later it is in the run, either re-adjust the previous totals or report it as 'lost sellouts' on that day.  Might depend on my mood at the time. 

 

I do feel a tad uneasy about calling the seats sold.  But only a tad since, as I said, I just find it hard to believe that Cinemark would flush 200+ dollars in tickets and who knows how many concession dollars down the drain for 6pm 'prime time' seats that I am 99.999% certain would be sold. 

 

I feel much less uncertain about calling it a sellout, as it most certainly is one if another ticket is never made available for those showings.

 

Daily report in a bit (getting started on it right now).

*starts compiling today's report*

 

Hey folks... GUESS WHAT FINALLY POPPED BACK UP ON FANDANGO TODAY, NEARLY ONE MONTH LATER!!!!    

Edited February 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Gonna have to bite the bullet and report these as "removed sellouts" on the board today and subtract the tickets sold from today's count.  Probably will go ahead and manually adjust my home sheet to remove the sellouts retroactively for the historical record, however.

 

I don't expect them to remain un-sold out for long (there's VERY few tickets left at both showings).  Just find it hi-lair-i-ous that 27 days later they finally put it back up for sale. 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	8399	12893	34.86%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:        113**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 133 (133 - 20 = 113).

 

1.1653x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4800x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2519x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1073x as many tickets sold as Solo 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.1536x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.0211x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-8 Comp:

 

BP:            175 tickets sold [3 sellouts/73 showings    |    4147/7601 seats left  | 45.44% sold]

IW:            207 tickets sold [4 sellouts/135 showings |   4628/13013 seats left  | 64.44% sold]

DP2:          152 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |  10252/13467 seats left | 23.87% sold]

Solo:         101 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6511/10146 seats left  | 35.83% sold]

JW2:            94 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9394/11263 seats left  | 16.59% sold]

FB2:          100 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11288/13377 seats left  | 15.62% sold]

CM (adj)*:   95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/107 showings |   7403/11428 seats left   | 35.22% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

Also includes a 'loss' of two sellouts and 20 tickets reported as sold when two showings that were removed for sale for nearly a month were put back up for sale today. The 'actual' CM adj tickets sold was 115.

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	6874	10450	34.22%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:          88**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 108 (108 - 20 = 88).

 

1.0353x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	7403	11428	35.22%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:          95**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 108 (108 - 20 = 88).

 

1.1653x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited February 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Mumen Rider]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	8399	12893	34.86%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:        113**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 133 (133 - 20 = 113).

 

1.1653x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4800x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2519x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1073x as many tickets sold as Solo 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.1536x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.0211x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-8 Comp:

 

BP:            175 tickets sold [3 sellouts/73 showings    |    4147/7601 seats left  | 45.44% sold]

IW:            207 tickets sold [4 sellouts/135 showings |   4628/13013 seats left  | 64.44% sold]

DP2:          152 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |  10252/13467 seats left | 23.87% sold]

Solo:         101 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6511/10146 seats left  | 35.83% sold]

JW2:            94 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9394/11263 seats left  | 16.59% sold]

FB2:          100 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11288/13377 seats left  | 15.62% sold]

CM (adj)*:   95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/107 showings |   7403/11428 seats left   | 35.22% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

Also includes a 'loss' of two sellouts and 20 tickets reported as sold when two showings that were removed for sale for nearly a month were put back up for sale today. The 'actual' CM adj tickets sold was 115.

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Hide contents

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	6874	10450	34.22%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:          88**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 108 (108 - 20 = 88).

 

1.0353x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	7403	11428	35.22%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:      2*

Total Showings Added Today:        9

Total Seats Added Today:           799

Total Net Seats Sold Today:          95**

*NOTE: Two showings, which disappeared from all ticketing sites nearly a month ago, were re-added today and therefore removed from the Sellouts count.

** SECOND NOTE: This includes the 20 extra seats which are now available to buy, thus the actual tickets sold today was 108 (108 - 20 = 88).

 

1.1653x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 8 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

I don't understand any of this. Is this good or bad for the $150m OW?

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, Mumen Rider said:

I don't understand any of this. Is this good or bad for the $150m OW?

It can be a little complicated, sorry.

 

First off, I only track what's going on for Opening Night (Thur in this case), so this is really only tracking the Thr number.  

 

Secondly, the "x as many tickets sold" is saying how many more or less tickets Captain Marvel has sold in raw ticket sales compared to the movie in question.

 

So, for instance, Captain Marvel has so far sold about 48% of the tickets Infinity War had sold eight days way.  The other info is a condensed version of the stat block given at the very top of the post for the other movies 8 days away so you can see where those movies stood eight days away from premiering. 

 

===

 

As for a 150 OW?  Well today was a little on the slow side locally, but given the last couple of days were pretty strong it's probably random variation at play.

 

IMO, and I am by no means an expert on this, this looks to be pacing for around an 18m to 20m Thr or maybe 19m to 21m (that's my personal range atm).

 

If the Thur number is around that range and if Captain Marvel then follows historical patterns for Marvel movies, a 150 OW would certainly be in the cards.

 

====

 

One big proviso.  Right about now is when the Big Time Movies start to ramp up in sales.  If CM stalls out like Solo did, then a 150 OW becomes much less likely.

 

tl;dr:  Yes it's good.  But it ain't certain  by any means.

[ThomasNicole]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

It can be a little complicated, sorry.

 

First off, I only track what's going on for Opening Night (Thur in this case), so this is really only tracking the Thr number.  

 

Secondly, the "x as many tickets sold" is saying how many more or less tickets Captain Marvel has sold in raw ticket sales compared to the movie in question.

 

So, for instance, Captain Marvel has so far sold about 48% of the tickets Infinity War had sold eight days way.  The other info is a condensed version of the stat block given at the very top of the post for the other movies 8 days away so you can see where those movies stood eight days away from premiering. 

 

===

 

As for a 150 OW?  Well today was a little on the slow side locally, but given the last couple of days were pretty strong it's probably random variation at play.

 

IMO, and I am by no means an expert on this, this looks to be pacing for around an 18m to 20m Thr or maybe 19m to 21m (that's my personal range atm).

 

If the Thur number is around that range and if Captain Marvel then follows historical patterns for Marvel movies, a 150 OW would certainly be in the cards.

 

====

 

One big proviso.  Right about now is when the Big Time Movies start to ramp up in sales.  If CM stalls out like Solo did, then a 150 OW becomes much less likely.

 

tl;dr:  Yes it's good.  But it ain't certain  by any means.

I think it’s a random variation too... on Fandango the movie sold almost 11k tickets yesterday (compared to 8k on Tuesday).

[Deep Wang]

[Premium George]

Not good news, eh?

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You dont look that well. Do you have medical questions? Maybe you should ask him:

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Well I really should be getting back to sleep soon, but I guess that’ll have to wait for now. Gonna go with 4.3 as my guess.