The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I think the fact that the only two kind of close comparisons numbers wise are black panther and IW is causing a lot of hesitation.

Yeah, it’s very understandable. When I’m making serious predictions rather than joking about huge numbers I also encounter a lot of hesitation. Part of that also is that predicting a 160 and getting 140 feels kind of bad, but predicting a 160 and getting 200 feels GREAT.    

 

Still, leaving arithemetical details aside for a bit, this: 

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

the only two kind of close comparisons numbers wise are black panther and IW

says a lot.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Alright, here's my final prediction (for Monday :P)

 

Previews: $22mn

True Friday: $47mn

Saturday: $60mn

Sunday: $44mn

 

Total: $173mn

That sounds about right if the numbers coming in are indicative.

 

54% of IW is 21m.  I've been toying with a shoot-from-the-hip predict of 175 OW (which would be just a tad over the record) for the last hour or so.

 

Even if the multi is skewed a bit, I reckon my CM:IW comp percentage will continue to rise.  So it could hit 22-23 on Thr and 'only' hit 175-180m.

 

Make for a fun Weekend Thread if it does just squeak by BatB at least. 👍

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Biggestgeekever]

Something I just realized now: it's been noted just how long the box office has been so far this year, but I haven't seen much or really any mention that Captain Marvel is going to be the first $100M opener since Jurassic World 2 which was about eight and a half months ago. That seems to be the longest gap between 9 digits opening weekend this entire decade.

 

Plenty of films have done well since June 2018, but it's crazy just how long it's been since there was a genuine mega event film.

[ZeeSoh]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@CoolEric258 brings up an excellent point which perhaps hasn't been discussed enough.

 

I wasn't paying attention at the time; did Wonder Woman have an especially skewed preview to OW internal multi?  Or was there already enough of a WOM buzz to counteract that?

Here are some preview to OW multi of relevant movies for reference.

 

Avengers 1 - 11

BATB - 10.72

Wonder Woman - 9.4 

CA:TWS - 9.33

Logan - 9.3

Doctor Strance - 9 

Gotg2 - 8.6

Thor Ragnark - 8.46

Gotg1 - 8.4

Venom - 8.025

Black Panther (3 day) - 8.01

Spider-man Homecoming - 7.6

Civil War - 7.16

Age of Ultron - 6.9

Infinity War - 6.61

Ant Man 2 - 6.59

Suicide Squad- 6.5

Batman v Superman - 6

 

So of the recent SH movies WW had one of the best preview to OW indicating it was not frontloaded. But a frontloaded OW does not necessarily indicate short legs. BP and GoTG1 for example are in the middle of the pack above and yet had the best legs in MCU.

Edited March 5, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Something I just realized now: it's been noted just how long the box office has been so far this year, but I haven't seen much or really any mention that Captain Marvel is going to be the first $100M opener since Jurassic World 2 which was about eight and a half months ago. That seems to be the longest gap between 9 digits opening weekend this entire decade.

 

Plenty of films have done well since June 2018, but it's crazy just how long it's been since there was a genuine mega event film.

Whole 2014 had no $100mn.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Still weird to think that AMaTW was more frontloaded in terms of previews to OW than Infinity War (July release played a part I guess). I expect Far From Home to have a very frontloaded OW when that comes around. 

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Whole 2014 had no $100mn.

Paramount insisted otherwise haha

Edited March 5, 2019 by Darth Lehnsherr

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Whole 2014 had no $100mn.

Mockingjay 1

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Here are some preview to OW multi of relevant movies for reference.

 

Avengers 1 - 11

BATB - 10.72

Wonder Woman - 9.4 

CA:TWS - 9.33

Logan - 9.3

Doctor Strance - 9 

Gotg2 - 8.6

Thor Ragnark - 8.46

Gotg1 - 8.4

Venom - 8.025

Black Panther (3 day) - 8.01

Spider-man Homecoming - 7.6

Civil War - 7.16

Age of Ultron - 6.9

Infinity War - 6.61

Ant Man 2 - 6.59

Suicide Squad- 6.5

Batman v Superman - 6

 

So of the recent SH movies WW had one of the best preview to OW indicating it was not frontloaded. But a frontloaded OW does not necessarily indicate short legs. BP and GoTG1 for example are in the middle of the pack above and yet had the best legs in MCU.

Preview to opening day make more sense as Saturday and Sunday behave differently depending on WOM and when the film is releasing. Said that,

Spoiler

Film	Previews	Friday	% Share
Iron Man	$3.50	$35.23	9.93%
Incredible Hulk	$1.60	$21.47	7.45%
Iron Man 2	$7.50	$51.24	14.64%
Captain America	$4.00	$25.70	15.56%
Thor	$3.25	$25.48	12.75%
The Avengers	$18.70	$80.81	23.14%
Iron Man 3	$15.60	$68.86	22.66%
Thor 2	$7.10	$31.90	22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier	$10.30	$36.93	27.89%
GOTG	$11.20	$37.85	29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron	$27.60	$84.42	32.69%
Ant-Man	$6.40	$22.65	28.26%
Captain America: Civil War	$25.00	$75.50	33.11%
Doctor Strange	$9.40	$32.59	28.85%
GOTG 2	$17.00	$56.08	30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$15.40	$50.78	30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok	$14.50	$46.47	31.20%
Black Panther	$25.20	$75.94	33.18%
Avengers: Infinity War	$39.00	$106.33	36.68%
Ant-Man and The Wasp	$11.50	$33.73	34.10%

 

 

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Whole 2014 had no $100mn.

Mockingjay Pt 1 opened to $121M and Transformers 4 opened to $100m*

 

Spoiler

*I know, I know... but it counts!

 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Whole 2014 had no $100mn.

Hunger games. There was a full 1 year gap between Catching Fire and then though 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

Mockingjay 1

 

 

Just checked there was a Transformers as well. In my head, I had Winter Soldier as best 2014 opener. Sorry.

[Cooper Legion]

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[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Preview to opening day make more sense as Saturday and Sunday behave differently depending on WOM and when the film is releasing. Said that,

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Film	Previews	Friday	% Share
Iron Man	$3.50	$35.23	9.93%
Incredible Hulk	$1.60	$21.47	7.45%
Iron Man 2	$7.50	$51.24	14.64%
Captain America	$4.00	$25.70	15.56%
Thor	$3.25	$25.48	12.75%
The Avengers	$18.70	$80.81	23.14%
Iron Man 3	$15.60	$68.86	22.66%
Thor 2	$7.10	$31.90	22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier	$10.30	$36.93	27.89%
GOTG	$11.20	$37.85	29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron	$27.60	$84.42	32.69%
Ant-Man	$6.40	$22.65	28.26%
Captain America: Civil War	$25.00	$75.50	33.11%
Doctor Strange	$9.40	$32.59	28.85%
GOTG 2	$17.00	$56.08	30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$15.40	$50.78	30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok	$14.50	$46.47	31.20%
Black Panther	$25.20	$75.94	33.18%
Avengers: Infinity War	$39.00	$106.33	36.68%
Ant-Man and The Wasp	$11.50	$33.73	34.10%

 

 

I have those numbers too, but Porthos was asking for these ones specifically. and barring a few outliers the preview to OW multi does line up a bit with overall legs I think. I wonder how it will look graphed out. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

 

Just checked there was a Transformers as well. In my head, I had Winter Soldier as best 2014 opener. Sorry.

Don’t worry, Transformers didn’t actually make it

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

 

Just checked there was a Transformers as well. In my head, I had Winter Soldier as best 2014 opener. Sorry.

Quite an odd year. American Sniper winning domestic crown is still funny to me.

[RealLyre]

out of reacts but those CM numbers are insane. March record here we go 

 

I know Tuesday will be inflated by the reviews but could it hit 40k

 

 

[rishijoesanu]

49 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Still weird to think that AMaTW was more frontloaded in terms of previews to OW than Infinity War (July release played a part I guess). I expect Far From Home to have a very frontloaded OW when that comes around. 

Paramount insisted otherwise haha

My hypothesis is that MCU has been developing a built-in fanbase for long and ever since Infinity War there'll be hardcore group that'll turn early ala Star Wars. I think we'll start seeing Star Wars like internal multi for MCU too.

 

Maybe the women's day and feminist angle might help but I don't think CM will have the kind of walk-ins that pre-IW MCU films used to have

[Brainbug]

So, Captain Marvel is gonna make a lot of money.

 

Shocking.

 

Spoiler

 

[MCKillswitch123]

4 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Something I just realized now: it's been noted just how long the box office has been so far this year, but I haven't seen much or really any mention that Captain Marvel is going to be the first $100M opener since Jurassic World 2 which was about eight and a half months ago. That seems to be the longest gap between 9 digits opening weekend this entire decade.

 

 Plenty of films have done well since June 2018, but it's crazy just how long it's been since there was a genuine mega event film.

If you don't wanna count Transformers: Age Of Extinction for fudge reasons, there was a full year between Catching Fire and Mockingjay P1 

 

But that aside, that was an interesting stat and I went to research. It would indeed be the biggest difference:

• Fallen Kingdom to Captain Marvel (assuming CM hits 100M) - 9 months
• Deathly Hallows P1 to Deathly Hallows P2 - 8 months
• Catching Fire to Age Of Extinction - 7 months
• Breaking Dawn P2 to Iron Man 3 - 6 months
• Toy Story 3 to Deathly Hallows P1; Man Of Steel to Catching Fire; Age Of Extinction to Mockingjay P1; Mockingjay P1 to Furious 7; Suicide Squad to Rogue One - 5 months
• Deathly Hallows P2 to Breaking Dawn P1; Breaking Dawn P1 to The Hunger Games; The Dark Knight Rises to Breaking Dawn P2; Minions to Mockingjay P2 - 4 months
• Rogue One to Beauty And The Beast - 3 months
• Alice In Wonderland to Iron Man 2; The Avengers to The Dark Knight Rises; The Force Awakens to Deadpool; Beauty And The Beast to GOTG Vol. 2; Homecoming to It; It to Ragnarok; The Last Jedi to Black Panther; Black Panther to Infinity War - 2 months
• Iron Man 2 to Toy Story 3; The Hunger Games to The Avengers; Iron Man 3 to Man Of Steel; Furious 7 to Age Of Ultron; Age Of Ultron to Jurassic World; Jurassic World to Minions; Mockingjay P2 to The Force Awakens; Deadpool to Batman V Superman; Batman V Superman to The Jungle Book; The Jungle Book to Civil War; Civil War to Finding Dory; Finding Dory to The Secret Life Of Pets; The Secret Life Of Pets to Suicide Squad; GOTG Vol. 2 to Wonder Woman; Wonder Woman to Homecoming; Ragnarok to The Last Jedi; Infinity War to Deadpool 2; Deadpool 2 to Incredibles 2 - 1 month
• Incredibles 2 to Fallen Kingdom - <1 month

Though I don't think anything will ever beat the 2 year gap between Spider-Man and Shrek 2 for longest gap in between 100M openers in history

Edited March 5, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-05 15:00:25.729558 UTC
1	44.6%	Captain Marvel
2	11.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	3%	Green Book