The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MrGamer]

Jesus, between this thread and the Shazam thread, some of you guys really need to chill on the Shazam numbers. It’ll do fine. The weekend thread this weekend is going to be a nightmare the way some of y’all are acting.

[john2000]

Just now, RealLyre said:

not trying to start a fanboy war (and not sure how you got to that conclusion from my post) I was just pointing out how reviews and critical reception to superhero movies is becoming more and more irrelevant to the box office.

i agree with that but there are many people here that will use it to star arguing while you are right dont feed the trolls

[Matthew]

Why are people acting.. So doom and gloom? Week ain't over it. Come on guys it got positive and stellar reviews. It can do great overseas also. 

 

I am saying it will finish around Ant Man and the wasp. 

 

Weekend will be over 45M+ atleast. 

[JB33]

Ant-Man did $57.2M on OW in 2015. I'd say Shazam! will land somewhere around that, probably on the under though. $50M-$55M.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Ant-Man did $57.2M on OW in 2015. I'd say Shazam! will land somewhere around that, probably on the under though. $50M-$55M.

i would say 50 its more balanced as all things should be

[Litio]

4 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

How’s PS doing compared to TOD and AQP on Fandango’s pre-sales? I want to see if it’s more likely going closer to $40m than dropping in the low $20m.

Today until now, it is 90% over The Nun's presales, but Stephen King has a big fanbase. It will be way more upfront, but for now, its OW looks to be closer to $40m than low $20m.

[LordNox]

In retrospect i think the box office of Shazam would have been better if they made the movie even lighter and kids friendly. Making Shazam into a PG movie instead of PG-13.

 

Now a lot of the family audiences with young kids will prefer Dumbo over Shazam because of that. I think they wanted a middle road where Shazam could attract both the standard superhero audiences as well as families with young kids. But what happened is that they made Shazam too childish for many adult superhero fans and too dark for many younger kids with some very graphic scenes in the movie. So they ended up making a movie that didn't appeal to many groups in their target audiences for the movie.

 

In the end its obvious that those who love MCU movies are not appealed by Shazam at all. So it would have been better for them to just straight up have made Shazam into a childish PG movie. Sort of like a live action the incredibles movie. That way they could have gone 100 % on attracting only the family audiences, and they wouldn't have lost many because the standard superhero audience have already rejected Shazam.

 

So Shazam in trying to attract audiences that lacked appeal for Shazam any way end up losing box office returns for that reason.

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, LordNox said:

In retrospect i think the box office of Shazam would have been better if they made the movie even lighter and kids friendly. Making Shazam into a PG movie instead of PG-13.

 

Now a lot of the family audiences with young kids will prefer Dumbo over Shazam because of that. I think they wanted a middle road where Shazam could attract both the standard superhero audiences as well as families with young kids. But what happened is that they made Shazam too childish for many adult superhero fans and too dark for many younger kids with some very graphic scenes in the movie. So they ended up making a movie that didn't appeal to many groups in their target audiences for the movie.

 

In the end its obvious that those who love MCU movies are not appealed by Shazam at all. So it would have been better for them to just straight up have made Shazam into a childish PG movie. Sort of like a live action the incredibles movie. That way they could have gone 100 % on attracting only the family audiences, and they wouldn't have lost many because the standard superhero audience have already rejected Shazam.

 

So Shazam in trying to attract audiences that lacked appeal for Shazam any way end up losing box office returns for that reason.

Wow.. Such a detail judgement. Movie has not opened yet. What if it makes 55M+?

 

Stop making assumptions that it failed. 

[Jormungard]

16 minutes ago, LordNox said:

So Shazam in trying to attract audiences that lacked appeal for Shazam any way end up losing box office returns for that reason.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Jormungard

[Litio]

Based on presales of 13 first hours of monday in week of release and comparing to Ant-Man 2, Shazam would do about $49m OW. Well, Shazam isn't a sequel...

[Barnack]

20 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

not trying to start a fanboy war (and not sure how you got to that conclusion from my post) I was just pointing out how reviews and critical reception to superhero movies is becoming more and more irrelevant to the box office.

Is it becoming, was there any shift ?

 

Spider Man 3 had the best opening of the franchise and arguably the worst critical reception.

 

X-Men last stand has the biggest OW of the X-men franchise before Deadpool started, 58% on RT.

 

The % of audience that decided to see those franchise movie more than a month before anyone saw them is quite big.

[Brainbug]

@LordNox

 

One thing is extremely important when judging a films box office run and/or its numbers: We do it, when we actually have the numbers. Your constant doomtalk just comes across as you having some sort of agenda against the film and - again - we dont have any actual numbers right now and are still on the "speculation" point of Shazams possible run. You come across as a troll who only wants to start some sort of flame war and atleast I dont need that.

 

Secondly, this is the buzz and tracking thread. We dont examine why a film "failed" here at the box office and we do it - again - especially not when the film didnt even have its Thursday previews yet. If you want to talk that much about Shazam do it in the Shazam thread. This thread right here is not the place for these discussions.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, LordNox said:

In retrospect i think the box office of Shazam would have been better if they made the movie even lighter and kids friendly. Making Shazam into a PG movie instead of PG-13.

 

Now a lot of the family audiences with young kids will prefer Dumbo over Shazam because of that. I think they wanted a middle road where Shazam could attract both the standard superhero audiences as well as families with young kids. But what happened is that they made Shazam too childish for many adult superhero fans and too dark for many younger kids with some very graphic scenes in the movie. So they ended up making a movie that didn't appeal to many groups in their target audiences for the movie.

 

In the end its obvious that those who love MCU movies are not appealed by Shazam at all. So it would have been better for them to just straight up have made Shazam into a childish PG movie. Sort of like a live action the incredibles movie. That way they could have gone 100 % on attracting only the family audiences, and they wouldn't have lost many because the standard superhero audience have already rejected Shazam.

 

So Shazam in trying to attract audiences that lacked appeal for Shazam any way end up losing box office returns for that reason.

A lot of your posts in this thread are probably better located in the actual Shazam thread...especially since you are pounding the same drum a lot.  And you could be exactly right for this weekend and total BO for Shazam - aka, it seems you think woefully low...but be prepared to eat crow next weekend if you aren't right.  Most of us are happy to see the contrarian opinion, as long as the contrarian owns it afterwards if it doesn't go their way...

 

As for the tracking, it's not picking up yet as much as I'd like to see for a $60M+ DOM OW...but I'm still not sure how the $3.3M plays (was it "too much too soon" and all the great WOM evaporated over the delay to open...or am I personally expecting "too much too soon" since it's not Xmas, so Aquaman isn't quite the perfect comp)...

 

Edit: Brainbug, two great brains thinking alike at the same time:)...

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Matthew]

Just saw Ant Man and the wasp presales figure. That movie was very walkup friendly. Made way less than Venom and Aquaman in presales. Opened to 75M interesting. 

 

I think AMaTW and Shazam will be same. Both walkup friendly. 

[Lucasmessi12]

I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week,  Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than  Disney live actions and blah blah  and What happened? these predictions all failed!

 

And  Lodrnox and Matthew are obvious trolls accounts (most likely from old members of this site, I doubt they are new). Just ignore what they say.

[Matthew]

Just now, Lucasmessi12 said:

I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week,  Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than  Disney live actions and blah blah  and What happened? these predictions all failed!

 

And  Lodrnox and Matthew are obvious trolls accounts (most likely from old members of this site, I doubt they are new). Just ignore what they say.

What trolling did I do? 😑😑😑

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

@LordNox

 

One thing is extremely important when judging a films box office run and/or its numbers: We do it, when we actually have the numbers. Your constant doomtalk just comes across as you having some sort of agenda against the film and - again - we dont have any actual numbers right now and are still on the "speculation" point of Shazams possible run. You come across as a troll who only wants to start some sort of flame war and atleast I dont need that.

 

Secondly, this is the buzz and tracking thread. We dont examine why a film "failed" here at the box office and we do it - again - especially not when the film didnt even have its Thursday previews yet. If you want to talk that much about Shazam do it in the Shazam thread. This thread right here is not the place for these discussions.

To piggyback on this, I took a look at your posting history @LordNox and I don't actually think you are trolling.  Not even the dreaded concern troll.

 

I do think you are being waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too pessimistic and jumping at shadows.  I think you're probably very nervous about how Shazam! will do and it's bleeding into every post you make on the subject.

 

Yes, Shazam! was in a tight spot.  It was always going to be in a tight spot.  But because it was always going to be in a tight spot, plus the $3m it's already burned off. it's REALlY difficult to project just what it is going to do.

 

My suggestion would just be to relax a little and take into account that Shazam! really doesn't have great comps when it comes to CBMs thanks to everything that has been discussed to death.

 

It might very well bugsplat, sure.  But it really is far too soon to say it will. 

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, Lucasmessi12 said:

I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week,  Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than  Disney live actions and blah blah  and What happened? these predictions all failed!

But Aquaman did open in line with presales compared to other superhero movies (it followed Venom very closely the first couple of days); it just had amazing legs partly because of Christmas.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

41 minutes ago, Litio said:

Today until now, it is 90% over The Nun's presales, but Stephen King has a big fanbase. It will be way more upfront, but for now, its OW looks to be closer to $40m than low $20m.

 

 

 

That's amazing, The Nun sold more on pre-sales than the whole TCU combined, iirc. I just want it opening above $35m so a $100m grosser is locked, but if it explodes and goes above that Funny Book Movie being released this weekend, it will be even better. 

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, Lucasmessi12 said:

I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week,  Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than  Disney live actions and blah blah  and What happened? these predictions all failed!

 

And  Lodrnox and Matthew are obvious trolls accounts (most likely from old members of this site, I doubt they are new). Just ignore what they say.

You remember incorrectly

 

Mary Poppins on Mon & Tues

 

Mary Poppins Returns (Wed opener with Tues previews)    7,713    9,137

 

AQM on Wed & Thur before it opened

 

Aquaman    15,063    25,201