The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

October 9th

It was one of the two 😓

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

October 9th

So the TLJ presales went on sale on a day that  DOM boxoffice did $16.5m. So tomorrow might be close to that. 70% is what EG has to get to. 

[MattW]

The 520 seat IMAX showtime that I bought for had about 50 seats sold 10 minutes after tickets went on sale. Now 4 hours later it's at 400 sold, front few rows and way off to the sides are all that's left.

[Legion Again]

Jumped to 54.1 this hour 🤩

 

Depening on Mon/Tues size, would already convert to about 20M in presales.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Jumped to 54.1 this hour 🤩

 

Depening on Mon/Tues size, would already convert to about 20M in presales.

My God, approahcing TLJ level

[EconomySize]

Off the Endgame topic, but Pet Semetary numbers from Monday close look right on tracking:

	Pet Sematary	A Quiet Place	Escape Room	Glass	Halloween	Hereditary	The First Purge	The Nun	Us
Total Tix	4454	3841	280	13853	27311	1356	1689	7605	26378
Ratio		1.160	15.907	0.322	0.163	3.285	2.637	0.586	0.169
OW		50.2	18.2	40.3	76.2	13.6	17.3	53.8	71.1
Proj OW	28.63	58.21	289.51	12.96	12.43	44.67	45.62	31.51	12.01
	Pet Sematary	A Quiet Place	Escape Room	Glass	Halloween	Hereditary	The First Purge	The Nun	Us
Thurs. Tix	1460	1398	99	4641	8927	605	887	2518	8788
Ratio		1.044	14.747	0.315	0.164	2.413	1.646	0.580	0.166
PG		4.3	2.3	3.7	7.7	1.3	2.5	5.4	7.4
Proj PG	2.40	4.49	33.92	1.16	1.26	3.14	4.11	3.13	1.23
PG Multiplier	10.42	11.67	7.91	10.89	9.90	10.46	6.92	9.96	9.61
PG To OW	25.02	52.43	268.40	12.68	12.46	32.82	28.48	31.19	11.81

 

 

Couple of highlighted numbers - I don't think any of the comps are on point here... But assuming we throw out escape room (sales charts are too far off), and the first purge(opened on a Tuesday), the cumulative tickets put it at 28m, while the Thursday presales are trending to 2.4m.  Because horror is so front loaded, I trust a mean out of the comps rather than the model, so a multiplier of 10.42 gets it to 25m.  This all suggests that we are looking somewhere between 23 and 30,  Which is right over top of tracking.

 

Shazam is such a corner case because of the previews, that all of this analysis doesn't work.  I'll go easy and project a OW between 10 and 100 million.

 

 

[cdsacken]

Can't say I blame you on Shazam. Mine is 35 to 75. 

[MrGlass2]

6 minutes ago, EconomySize said:

 

Shazam is such a corner case because of the previews, that all of this analysis doesn't work.  I'll go easy and project a OW between 10 and 100 million.

Previews didn't change much for Aquaman, it behaved as expected from presales - as if the early access didn't happen.

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Okay, you know what?  I've seen this before.  I give this about a small chance it actually sold out by 5:03 my time (especially since earlier shows are still available).  I'm reasonably sure this thing has crashed on me and I'm not going to keep staying up to find out.

 

So I'm going to crowd source this.   If anyone can get me the AUDITORIUM NUMBER for the 7pm and 7:30pm showings at the following theater, I'd be REALLY REALLY grateful:

 

https://www.fandango.com/blue-oaks-century-theatres-and-xd-AAWFR/theater-page?mytheaters=true&date=2019-04-25

https://www.cinemark.com/northern-california/blue-oaks-century-theatres-and-xd?showDate=04/25/2019 (alt link directly from their website)

 

If I can get the auditorium number, I can figure out the seats.  Hopefully it'll pop back up by the time I wake up in a few hours.

 

If not... Well, I might be able to figure something out.  Hopefully won't come to that though.

 

I'm crashing now.  See ya'll in a few hours.:)

Well I got about three hours sleep.  That's all anyone needs, right???

 

Don't answer that.

 

Anywho it's a good thing I DID get up so early as I was able to get the info for Studio Movie Grill Rocklin which wasn't up yet when I crashed.  Got the initial info just before a legitimate sellout happened.

 

As for the two showings in the quoted box, it's the damnedest thing.  I checked my records and I attempted to get the auditorium numbers at precisely 5am my time (Fandango actually went live about 10 min early for me, allowing me a massive head start on collecting info - and I never got queued overnight, probably because I was hitting West Coast servers).  And there's no real reason for them to be sold out when 'better' showtimes at the same theatre were open.

 

But here's the weird part.  This is a fully reserved seating theater.  But these two showings are listed as NON-reserved seating; both on Fandango and on Cinemark.  I was just so tired last night that I didn't even notice it (though I went back and checked my archived info and it was non-reserved then as well so I just plain missed it).

 

I've seen this very rarely and it often leads to cock-ups.

 

I am about 70% sure that there were listed as sold out in error.  The only other logical option is that these were bought out before Fandango went live vja a massive group sale, though why that would shift them to non-reserved I have no idea.

 

So I'm not sure how to treat them.  Since they were listed as non-reserved, I couldn't have ever gotten the seat charts, so I suppose I could treat it as a sellout at a non-reserved theater.  On the other hand, the possibility of it being an error is pretty large.  

 

What I might do is kinda keep it in reserve and see if any of the screens are unclaimed as opening night approached.  If they all are claimed, I know it was an error.  If two are unclaimed, I can figure out what's missing and reverse-engineer it.

 

Anywho, I just did a verification and I have all of the info I need to make my seat charts. 👍 Probably take me a couple of hours to translate everything into seat info, especially if I get queued over at Fandango.

 

I'll make my initial report later tonight at the usual time, though if I get any juicy info from my initial pass this morning, I might pass it along.  Just depends on how grumpy I am from lack of sleep.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well I got about three hours sleep.  That's all anyone needs, right???

 

Don't answer that.

 

Anywho it's a good thing I DID get up so early as I was able to get the info for Studio Movie Grill Rocklin which wasn't up yet when I crashed.  Got the initial info just before a legitimate sellout happened.

 

As for the two showings in the quoted box, it's the damnedest thing.  I checked my records and I attempted to get the auditorium numbers at precisely 5am my time (Fandango actually went live about 10 min early for me, allowing me a massive head start on collecting info - and I never got queued overnight, probably because I was hitting West Coast servers).  And there's no real reason for them to be sold out when 'better' showtimes at the same theatre were open.

 

But here's the weird part.  This is a fully reserved seating theater.  But these two showings are listed as NON-reserved seating; both on Fandango and on Cinemark.  I was just so tired last night that I didn't even notice it (though I went back and checked my archived info and it was non-reserved then as well so I just plain missed it).

 

I've seen this very rarely and it often leads to cock-ups.

 

I am about 70% sure that there were listed as sold out in error.  The only other logical option is that these were bought out before Fandango went live vja a massive group sale, though why that would shift them to non-reserved I have no idea.

 

So I'm not sure how to treat them.  Since they were listed as non-reserved, I couldn't have ever gotten the seat charts, so I suppose I could treat it as a sellout at a non-reserved theater.  On the other hand, the possibility of it being an error is pretty large.  

 

What I might do is kinda keep it in reserve and see if any of the screens are unclaimed as opening night approached.  If they all are claimed, I know it was an error.  If two are unclaimed, I can figure out what's missing and reverse-engineer it.

 

Anywho, I just did a verification and I have all of the info I need to make my seat charts. 👍 Probably take me a couple of hours to translate everything into seat info, especially if I get queued over at Fandango.

 

I'll make my initial report later tonight at the usual time, though if I get any juicy info from my initial pass this morning, I might pass it along.  Just depends on how grumpy I am from lack of sleep.

[Matthew]

Alkavely is crashed for long time now. 😱😱😱😱 

 

Fandango pulse meter is also not behaving right. 

 

 

[Cap]

Local IMAX:

 

- The local IMAX just cut its capacity in half when it went to reserved, recliner seats.  We don't have a long history of pre-sales, even for Marvel films.  It's usually the IMAX Thursday that sells out ASAP.  We're currently looking at, for just the IMAX screen:

 

Thursday:
* 6PM 4 seats are ADA accompaniment seats, 10PM 5 seats ADA)

6:00PM (3D) - 133/144

1:000PM - 133/144

 

Friday:
* 5 ADA for 6:30, others 6 ADA

11:00AM - 57/144

2:45PM - 64/144

6:30PM (3D) - 120/144

10:15PM - 92/144

 

Saturday:

*All 6 ADA seats available

11:00AM - 26/144

2:45PM - 73/144

6:30PM (3D) - 79/144

10:00PM - 21/144

 

Sunday:

* All 6 ADA seats available

11:00AM - 38/144

2:45PM - 41/144

6:30PM - 30/144

10:00PM 3/144

 

Cap:

Th: 92.36%

F: 57.81%

S: 34.54%

Su: 19.44%

Total: 45.13%

[mulderfox]

How about tracking the movies coming out this weekend instead of the movie coming out a month from now. That movie will break records anyway.

[cdsacken]

35 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Previews didn't change much for Aquaman, it behaved as expected from presales - as if the early access didn't happen.

8x it's previews is normal? Obviously Aquaman opened lower than long term demand as it's legs were absolutely massive. 72 ow with legs of 4.65 and absolutely insane OS numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, mulderfox said:

How about tracking the movies coming out this weekend instead of the movie coming out a month from now. That movie will break records anyway.

Tracking the #1 movie of day and most likely tomorrow as well.

[FlashMaster659]

Endgame 59.5% on MT

[Legion Again]

59.5, hourly increase about 60% of last hour.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

8x it's previews is normal? Obviously Aquaman opened lower than long term demand as it's legs were absolutely massive. 72 ow with legs of 4.65 and absolutely insane OS numbers.

Normal for Christmas

[XXR vs XXR]

If this could hit 75%, that would be pretty crazy. 

[charlie Jatinder]

59.5% now.