The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Biggestgeekever]

Just noticed the MT archive tracker is working again: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

[FlashMaster659]

On 5/29/2019 at 11:56 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 59/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 127/203

8:45 PM - 84/203

11:30 PM - 21/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 14/78

9:30 PM - 3/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 6/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 72/217

9:45 PM - 11/217

 

Total

 

338/1533 (22.0%)

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 82/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 130/203

8:45 PM - 102/203

11:30 PM - 32/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 18/78

9:30 PM - 5/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 8/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 93/217

9:45 PM - 13/217

 

Total

 

483(+145)/1533 (31.5%)

 

I know it's a bad comp but since it's the only one I've got...

 

0.1578x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame after 2 days of pre-sales

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london final update thurs

 

Godzilla King of monsters 
IMAX

4pm 58/323(+39)
7pm 60/323(+28)
10pm 30/323(+21)

 

Westmount 
Godzilla     Thurs may 30
VIP
615 18/59 (+11)   930 9/59(+0)

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:05pm - 12:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	13097	15483	15.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     398

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres. I have also added at the last moment comps for Venom and Ant-Man and the Wasp as they were walkup heavy.

 

Unadjusted Comps

0.9007x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu mid-day of premiere.

0.7719x as many tickets sold as Aladdin mid-day of premiere.

 

T-0 Mid-day:

Pika        392 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/112 showings   |   7619/10268 seats left  | 25.80% sold]

Aladdin   585 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/117 showings   | 10762/13853 seats left  | 22.31% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4403x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid-day of premiere.

.6170x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp mid-day of premiere.

.6369x as many tickets sold as Venom mid-day of premiere.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-0 Mid-day:

JW2             761 tickets sold [0 sellouts/147 showings |   8742/13715 seats left   |  36.11% sold]

AM2            897 tickets sold [0 sellouts/112 showings |   7361/10896 seats left   |  32.44% sold]

KotM (JW)    357 tickets sold [0 sellouts/125 showings | 11600/13781 seats left   |  15.83% sold]

---

Venom      725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/127 showings |   9748/13229 seats left   |  26.31% sold]

KotM (V)    364 tickets sold [0 sellouts/125 showings | 12587/14440 seats left   |  12.83% sold]

KotM (V) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despite what deadline is saying, I don’t see it beating I2 OW. That had 14  years of anticipation and play with adults better than Toy Story movie. But 150m would be crazy good as well. I Hope it goes higher.

 

Even Atom report is promising.

Same gimme 165-175

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:05pm - 12:50pm]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4403x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid-day of premiere.

.6170x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp mid-day of premiere.

.6369x as many tickets sold as Venom mid-day of premiere.

 

.4403 x 15.3 = $6.732m

.6170 x 11.5 = $7.095m

.6369 x 10 =   $6.36m

 

My local 1.09 x 5.9 (Shazam!)= $6.431

 

Hmmm

[Porthos]

Just not really seeing the walkups KotM should be getting.  The only good thing is that it did 47% of JW:FK in the half day.   But at final report, I'm going to be closing tracking about 90 minutes earlier than I did for JW:FK, so that will almost certainly affect the comp then.

 

If I comp it against JW:FK right now, I get around 6.7m.  Venom and Ant-Man 2, I get 6.3m to 7m.  ALL of those comps will go down unless KotM breaks out in the next three hours.  Plus none of those had matinee pricing. Though maybe stopping tracking earlier than normal might counter-balance that somewhat.

 

On the flip side, Pika PIka gets me 5.1m.  Let's up that to 5.5m due to PLFs.  Aladdin comps to 5.4m, but that over-performed locally.  So let's say the current range is 5.75m to 6.75m.  I'll tighten it up at final report, but for now I think that's where my head is at.  Wish I had better news out of Sacramento.  And maybe it is under-performing here.   Just have to see.

[cdsacken]

I could see that. I have no idea so let's say 6.3-7.1 range if it does well.

 

5.3-6.2 if it underperforms

Edited May 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

.4403 x 15.3 = $6.732m

.6170 x 11.5 = $7.095m

.6369 x 10 =   $6.36m

 

My local 1.09 x 5.9 (Shazam!)= $6.431

 

Hmmm

That kinda seems right (was typing up thoughts as you posted).  Flippin' matinee pricing and stopping of tracking at different times complicates things though. 

[ThomasNicole]

Forbes is also on the $ 150-200M train

 

Box Office: 'Toy Story 4' May Open Bigger Than 'Incredibles 2'

If tracking is to be believed, we’re probably looking at a launch between $150 million and $200 million, with (obviously) lots of wiggle room.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/05/30/box-office-toy-story-4-may-open-bigger-than-incredibles-2/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

$150 million and $200 million, with (obviously) lots of wiggle room.

50m range with wriggle room.  Way to go out on a ledge there. 👍

[Cookson]

Godzilla is projecting anywhere from 60-80opening in China per zeesoh. I’m going to push that same number domestically and hope the same.. want to see a 60-80opener here. Need some positive vibes.

 

You guys know my hearts racing right? I’m a huge Godzilla fan. I also live in St. Louis.. so this film and the Stanley Cup are giving me heart attacks....

Edited May 30, 2019 by Cookson

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Cookson said:

You guys know my hearts racing right? I’m a huge Godzilla fan. I also live in St. Louis.. so this film and the Stanley Cup are giving me heart attacks....

 

On 5/4/2019 at 4:50 PM, Porthos said:

👍

 

 

 

Don't worry about it, @Brainbug.  As soon as you leave this thread, you'll start feeling better.  You'll remember you don't believe in any of this pre-sale crap.  Your film is in control of it's own fate. Remember?   

 

Here, take a cookie.  I promise you, by the time you're done eating it, you'll feel as right as rain.

 

You should take a cookie too, @Cookson. Freshly baked, even.  

[YM!]

Godzilla: King Of The Monsters

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

5/30/19

 

4:00 - 28/301 - UltraScreen 

7:15 - 118/301 - UltraScreen 

8:15 - 41/98

10:30 - /301- UltraScreen 

Edited May 31, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Old Spice]

Godzilla and Elton preview night report from Salt Lake City. One hour before first 'Zilla screening, 4 hours before Rocket.

 

KOTM:

4:00 PM 32/104

7:10 55/104

7:50 5/48

10:15 (3D) 8/104

10:55 1/48

Total 101/408 24.8%

 

54% of Pika = 29.4

91% of John Wick = 51.7

40% of Aladdin = 36.6

 

Rocketman

7:00 PM 42/62

7:00 (just added moments ago) 0/47

10:00 12/62

Total 54/171 31.6%

 

Really surprised at how weak Godzilla looks. Rocketman is making the most of its limited screens. Two weeks ago I would have thought 40s for Godzilla would be crazy talk, but then I also thought the RT score would be similar to Skull Island, so... 😣

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-29 16:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	26.404%	18399	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.450%	16341	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	13.366%	9314	Rocketman
4	07.564%	5271	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
5	05.848%	4075	Ma (2019)
6	05.150%	3589	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.316%	2311	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	03.126%	2178	Booksmart
9	02.164%	1508	Brightburn
10	01.689%	1177	Toy Story 4 [combined]
11	01.044%	727	Dark Phoenix [combined]

 

KotM continues to creep up on Aladdin. Should pass it soon.  If it wasn't for TS4 pre-sales, Dark Phoenix would be in the Top 10.  Still pretty anemic for it though, I think.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

KOTM is picking up steam on Fandango...for Thursday. Friday presales are just anemic, as is the rest of the weekend. Still, if it stopped selling right now it would be at 46% of JW2 which gives 7.04, and if it keeps up the pace it will probably end with the comp suggesting 9.03 (!!!). However, I think Pacific Rim Uprising may be a better comp in this case because I'm really not seeing the kind of GA interest in this one that the Jurassic movies have. Uprising got about 12,000 tickets sold for its previews. I expect Godzilla to end with 26-27, which gives 5.3 with the Uprising comparison (yikes). Gonna go with 6 since some more kids are off school now.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

The Sun Is Also a Star has the epic 3rd week theater drop (2000+ to only 95 has to be a record), and is coming for one of the highest ever 3rd weekend DOM box office drops, I think...not a surprise, but it's funny when A Dog's Journey gets a huge drop, but it's like nothing compared to its other May 17 wide release...it's gonna be just as ugly next week for Brightburn and Booksmart, I think...

 

May 31
Updated Thursday afternoons
 

<< Prev. Week < Last Year	View Index	Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. 4,108 - - - - - - 1 2 - Rocketman Paramount 3,610 - - - - - - 1 5 - Ma Universal 2,808 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 7 7 Booksmart United Artists Releasing 2,518 +13 +0.5% - - - - 2 13 19 Shazam! Warner Bros. (New Line) 337 +54 +19.1% - - - - 9 21 34 All Is True Sony Classics 81 +17 +26.6% - - - - 4 22 44 The Souvenir A24 74 +51 +221.7% - - - - 3 24 42 Hotel Mumbai Bleecker Street 33 +3 +10.0% - - - - 11 26 72 The Tomorrow Man Bleecker Street 18 +14 +350.0% - - - - 2 28 99 Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release) Janus Films 2 +1 +100.0% - - - - 3 > NO CHANGE 6 6 Brightburn Sony / Screen Gems 2,607 - - - - - - 2 > DECLINING 3 2 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum Lionsgate/Summit 3,604 -246 -6.4% - - - - 3 4 3 Pokemon Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. 3,147 -677 -17.7% - - - - 4 8 5 A Dog's Journey Universal 1,674 -1,605 -48.9% - - - - 3 9 8 The Hustle United Artists Releasing 1,407 -970 -40.8% - - - - 4 10 10 The Intruder (2019) Sony / Screen Gems 807 -805 -49.9% - - - - 5 11 11 Long Shot Lionsgate/Summit 477 -881 -64.9% - - - - 5 12 13 Poms STX Entertainment 374 -537 -58.9% - - - - 4 14 12 Uglydolls STX Entertainment 296 -794 -72.8% - - - - 5 15 15 The White Crow Sony Classics 212 -153 -41.9% - - - - 6 16 16 The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. (New Line) 167 -192 -53.5% - - - - 7 17 25 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Universal 118 -39 -24.8% - - - - 15 18 27 Us Universal 115 -21 -15.4% - - - - 11 19 23 Little Universal 111 -72 -39.3% - - - - 8 20 9 The Sun Is Also a Star Warner Bros. 95 -1,978 -95.4% - - - - 3 23 31 Missing Link United Artists Releasing 50 -60 -54.5% - - - - 8 25 35 Unplanned Pure Flix 27 -37 -57.8% - - - - 10 27 51 High Life A24 13 -1 -7.1% - - - - 9

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

KOTM is picking up steam on Fandango...for Thursday. Friday presales are just anemic, as is the rest of the weekend. Still, if it stopped selling right now it would be at 46% of JW2 which gives 7.04, and if it keeps up the pace it will probably end with the comp suggesting 9.03 (!!!). However, I think Pacific Rim Uprising may be a better comp in this case because I'm really not seeing the kind of GA interest in this one that the Jurassic movies have. Uprising got about 12,000 tickets sold for its previews. I expect Godzilla to end with 26-27, which gives 5.3 with the Uprising comparison (yikes). Gonna go with 6 since some more kids are off school now.

The JK:FK to KotM thing might just be a year-to-year rise in pre-sale tickets.  Seeing any comps in the 5's though ain't great news, especially with a different 2018 movie.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

The Sun Is Also a Star has the epic 3rd week theater drop (2000+ to only 95 has to be a record), and is coming for one of the highest ever 3rd weekend DOM box office drops, I think...not a surprise, but it's funny when A Dog's Journey gets a huge drop, but it's like nothing compared to its other May 17 wide release...it's gonna be just as ugly next week for Brightburn and Booksmart, I think...

Disney releases missing from the chart, FWIW.  Annoyingly, they've been late in reporting their theater counts recently. 😕

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos