The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Stewart said:

Where was the low TC estimate? Everywhere I'm seeing points to 4,400 which would be fantastic

3500+ for Dark Phoenix.

[Stewart]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-quentin-tarantino/

 

Once Upon a Time: 50m / 165m

 

Lots updated too, so will put full table in spoiler. Notably TS4 sees a 29% increase to 151m / 495m.

Spoiler

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Release Tracking	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
6/7/2019	Dark Phoenix	$50,000,000		$118,000,000		3,500	Fox
6/7/2019	Late Night	n/a		n/a		n/a	Amazon Studios
6/7/2019	The Secret Life of Pets 2	$68,000,000	-3%	$238,000,000	-3%	4,400	Universal
6/14/2019	Men In Black International	$41,000,000	5%	$112,500,000	5%	4,000	Sony / Columbia
6/14/2019	Shaft (2019)	$24,000,000	-14%	$69,000,000	-14%	3,300	Warner Bros.
6/21/2019	Anna	$6,000,000	NEW	$17,000,000	NEW		Lionsgate / Summit
6/21/2019	Child’s Play (2019)	$18,000,000	6%	$42,500,000			Orion Pictures
6/21/2019	Toy Story 4	$151,000,000	29%	$495,000,000	27%		Disney / Pixar
6/26/2019	Annabelle Comes Home	$31,000,000		$101,000,000			Warner Bros. / New Line
6/28/2019	Yesterday	n/a		n/a			Universal
7/2/2019	Spider-Man: Far from Home	$120,000,000		$405,000,000			Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
7/3/2019	Midsommar	n/a		n/a			A24
7/12/2019	Crawl	$18,000,000		$47,000,000			Paramount
7/12/2019	Stuber	$17,500,000		$65,000,000			Fox
7/19/2019	The Lion King (2019)	$201,000,000		$650,000,000			Disney
7/26/2019	Brahms: The Boy 2	n/a		n/a			STX
7/26/2019	Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood	$50,000,000	NEW	$165,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

3500+ for Dark Phoenix.

Whoops! Completely missed Phoenix, probably because there was no talk about SLOP2, only comps. 

 

Thanks, makes a bit more sense now  

[Eric the Marxist]

3 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Where was the low TC estimate? Everywhere I'm seeing points to 4,400 which would be fantastic

I was talking about Dark Phoenix. Its estimated to do about 3,500 theaters. It'll probably go higher (though still not by much), but right now it's only ahead of X-Men in terms of TC...which came out in 2000.

[doublejack]

1 hour ago, McClintonforThree said:

So considering this will almost certainly have better WOM and a better multiplier than Godzilla 2014, can we assume 63 million is the absolute floor for KOTM?

Seems like that is more the ceiling than the floor. Based off the 6.3M preview and Fandango numbers, the actual trajectory is low to mid 50s. That's consistent with reception in most places. If WOM is better than Godzilla 2014 it could be because the GA is taking a pass on it.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

26 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Seems like that is more the ceiling than the floor. Based off the 6.3M preview and Fandango numbers, the actual trajectory is low to mid 50s. That's consistent with reception in most places. If WOM is better than Godzilla 2014 it could be because the GA is taking a pass on it.

So like Alita but on a bigger scale. But hopefully it surprises us today. 

[stealthyfrog]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

“Avenge the Fallen” Endgame character posters: 111k likes and 50k shares on FB

 

”50 days...” TS4 character posters: 51k likes and 13.3k shares

 

”50 days...” TLK characters posters after 24 hours: 207k likes and 175k shares 🔥🔥🔥🔥

The real king is coming

[Justin4125]

8 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

The real king is coming

Lol Facebook activity has been notoriously bad at predicting BO

 

But still, TLK has a better release date and intergenerational appeal/nostalgia compared to AEG so that helps. Ultimately though there are too many variables and things that can go wrong, predicting anything above 700m is just too speculative until the film opens

[Old Spice]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

I've got a couple hours to kill before a meeting later today, so...

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Secret Life of Pets 2	200	386	505	450
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Dark Phoenix	427	553	684	700
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Men in Black		13	479	171
		17 days	16 days	15 days
Toy Story 4		2,996	1,744	940
		24 days	23 days	22 days
Spider-Man FFH	249	331	417	388
	36 days	35 days	34 days	33 days

 

Pets 2

Past 7 Days (14-8)

75% of Grinch (50.9M)

233% of Hotel 3 (103M)

 

Day 25-8

74% of Grinch (50.3M)

236% of Hotel 3 (104.2M)

 

Dark Phoenix

Past 7 Days (14-8)

27% of Venom (21.7M)

73% of Glass (29.4M using 3-Day, 33.9M using 4-Day)

64% of Shazam (34.4M)

 

Day 23-9

75% of Shazam (40.4M)

 

With these weak presales and a low TC estimate, we could be in for something ugly.

 

Men in Black
First two days of presales (ignoring the 13 tickets sold on Tuesday)

31% of Detective Pikachu (16.9M)

43% of Shazam! (22.9M)

37% of Aquaman (25.3M)

 

Day 16-15

27% of Aquaman (18.1M)

78% of Dumbo (35.9M)

72% of Dragon 3 (39.4M)

126% of Shazam (67.4M)

217% of Detective Pikachu (118.2M) (Endgame deflation occurred at that time)

 

The second set would be...okay I guess? But the first one...oh dear.

 

Toy Story

First 3 Days

231% of Detective Pikachu (125.4M)

298% of Dumbo (137.2M)

316% of Shazam (169.2M)

272% of Aladdin (249.3M 3-Day, 318.2M 4-Day)

145% of Incredibles 2 (264.2M)

 

Day 24-22

135% of Captain Marvel (206.6M)

338% of Aladdin (309.7M 3-Day, 395.4M 4-Day)

363% of Incredibles 2 (663.9M)

 

@FlashMaster659 You wanted Toy Story 4 Fandango #s, you get #s.

My God, those Dark Phoenix numbers are beyond dismal. The buzz around the movie is so bad I wonder if even just middling reviews (45-55%) might give it a bump. Good reviews would be an earthquake.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, stealthyfrog said:

The real king is coming

FB was generally Endgame's weakest social network/platform by far though, whether it be trailers or other promotional material. Actually Marvel in general seems to be weak on FB compared to Twitter, Instagram, Youtube, etc.

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Justin4125 said:

Lol Facebook activity has been notoriously bad at predicting BO

 

But still, TLK has a better release date and intergenerational appeal/nostalgia compared to AEG so that helps. Ultimately though there are too many variables and things that can go wrong, predicting anything above 700m is just too speculative until the film opens

True. Anything above 700m domestically is too speculative

[YM!]

Fun fact: Both Dark Phoenix and Pets 2 add up to equal 23 tickets (15+8) at North Shore Cinema total. Pikachu had sold 25 tickets at the same time.

[Brainbug]

3500 theaters is baffling to me for a superhero movie.

[doublejack]

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

FB was generally Endgame's weakest social network/platform by far though, whether it be trailers or other promotional material. Actually Marvel in general seems to be weak on FB compared to Twitter, Instagram, Youtube, etc.

My suspicion is this is a demographic thing. Facebook now skews older and more female, not exactly the target for CBMs. Kids in highschool these days for example are all on instagram and snapchat, and a little twitter. They have shunned facebook because that's what their parents use. I quit facebook mostly because of the privacy issues, but also because there are only so many pics of cute things I need to see in one day. It has turned into another pinterest. Marvel gets views from me on youtube though, and likes on twitter.

[Cooper Legion]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/30/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	31%	Aladdin
2	22.7%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	15.2%	Rocketman
4	6.3%	Ma
5	5.9%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum

Goodnight sweet prince.     

 

Godzilla still in 2. Iirc Aladdin hit 1 end of Wed and Wick 4 hours before end of Thurs, but both against weaker competitors.    

 

 

17 PT 5/31/19 (End of Fri)  

1	28.1%	Aladdin
2	23.4%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	18.6%	Rocketman
4	10.4%	Ma
5	5.2%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum  

 

Hmm, don’t think I’ll ever have to issue a #1 update for KotM.

[keysersoze123]

Wanted to look at overall sales. Zilla friday sales have at least overtaken thursday sales. I feel Variety is gonna be closer than DHD though its likely to be somewhere in between.

Ma will be frontloaded looking at PS. Rocketman should increase from early estimates. 

25999	2019-05-30	THU	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
26881	2019-05-31	FRI	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
12682	2019-06-01	SAT	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
5076	2019-06-02	SUN	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
4909	2019-05-30	THU	Ma
9056	2019-05-31	FRI	Ma
2093	2019-06-01	SAT	Ma
645	2019-06-02	SUN	Ma
6904	2019-05-30	THU	Rocketman
17859	2019-05-31	FRI	Rocketman
9143	2019-06-01	SAT	Rocketman
3668	2019-06-02	SUN	Rocketman

 

 

TS4 24 hour has really slowed down. I guess it would remain there at least until monday after next. it needs early reviews for next boost but its better to wait until Pets 2 is out.

[filmlover]

I honestly haven't heard much real world chatter for Dark Phoenix and my friends usually always buzz about movies like this. Kinda just reinforces the notion that everyone's just moved on and looking forward to the MCU reboot.

Edited June 1, 2019 by filmlover

[KP1025]

5 hours ago, Brainbug said:

3500 theaters is baffling to me for a superhero movie.

I wonder if SLOP2 taking 4,400+ theaters the same weekend is having an effect. Not to mention Aladdin and KOTM are still in over 4,000 theaters next weekend. 

[poweranimals]

Is MT.com broken currently? The numbers don't look right. 

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	11082	12201	9.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    104

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be family friendly films such as Aladdin and Detective Pikachu .  I will also be using Fallen Kingdom and KotM as comps due to the walkup friendly nature of their genres.  I may drop them if I feel they are not working as comps.

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2386x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after four days of pre-sales. 

2.2837x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after four days of pre-sales.

2.3809x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after four days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

Also, some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Day 4:

Pika         20 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |     7745/8009 seats left    |  3.30% sold]

Aladdin    56 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     8913/9403 seats left    |  5.21% sold]

KotM       98 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/80 showings   |  10687/11157 seats left   |  4.21% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.1086x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after four days of pre-sales.       

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 4:

JW2               87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    9155/10113 seats left  |   9.47% sold]

TS4 (JW)        80 tickets sold [0 sellouts/89 showings |    9474/10536 seats left  | 10.08% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.