The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's a tent pole that costs $100m+

 

$20-30m would be bad, especially the low end

Oops, thought it was like 70-80m. 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Oops, thought it was like 70-80m. 

Per Variety -  $110m. 

[DAJK]

That 110M budget for MiB is really impressive IMO, and is going to help the film in the long run.

[a2k]

On 6/1/2019 at 7:30 PM, cdsacken said:

I always thought Dark Phoneix looked truly horrible. 3.5 previews and 35 wouldn't shock me at all with a massive drop the week after.

no way it does 10x the previews over ow imo.

 

DOFP did 11.2x 5 years back with inflated Mem Day Sunday while APOC dropped to 8x again with an inflated Sunday.

 

Am expecting 7-7.5x the previews.

[keysersoze123]

looking at hourlies Aladdin will win sunday easily. DP and Pet 2 are looking horrible.

[LegendaryBen]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

looking at hourlies Aladdin will win sunday easily. DP and Pet 2 are looking horrible.

How's it looking for Rocketman? Hoping for a good Sunday drop.

[Cookson]

@Menor @keysersoze123

 

How is Godzilla looking? Any chance it could have a better Sunday than what’s projected? Asking because my theater actually is doing decent Godzilla business today.

[RamblinRed]

2 hours ago, Cookson said:

@Menor @keysersoze123

 

How is Godzilla looking? Any chance it could have a better Sunday than what’s projected? Asking because my theater actually is doing decent Godzilla business today.

IMO little chance. i think WB seriously is underestimating its Sunday drop. No other movie is projecting less than a 24% drop on Sunday and WB is trying to project a 20% drop for Zilla (that only increased 22% off true Friday). I think it is likely to lose 1.5M when actuals come out tomorrow and be closer to 47.5 for the OW (including previews). i think WB just wanted to report a higher estimate. They have been doing this all year, their movies have consistently been lower in actuals than estimates.

I'd put the odds at over 75% that without previews Aladdin had a higher gross FSS than Zilla did.

 

[Tinalera]

Thats rough for godzilla. Really hope it legs out with wom. 

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 6/1/19 (End of Sat)  

1	29.4%	Aladdin
2	21.7%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	17.9%	Rocketman
4	8.5%	Ma
5	6.1%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum   

Aladdin will hold the #1 spot this week (on MT, but also presumably the Sat-Thurs dailies). SLOP and XDP should pass next weekend, but I think it might be #2 2 and 3 weekends from now.

17 PT 6/2/19 (End of Sun)  

1	32.3%	Aladdin
2	21.4%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	15.5%	Rocketman
4	8%	Ma
5	6.8%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum

Edited June 3, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[cdsacken]

Holy crap a whole new world indeed.

[Legion Again]

Looking at Aladdin winning the week imo.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Holy crap a whole new world indeed.

It's much much MUCH closer on Fandango, FWIW.

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-01 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.638%	18129	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.503%	18026	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	16.595%	12727	Rocketman
4	09.511%	7294	Ma (2019)
5	08.081%	6198	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

Virtual tie, as a matter of fact.

[Legion Again]

I think MT demographics are very friendly to Aladdin. The actual grosses will obviously come in much closer than the 150% there. But presumably the skew is about the same as yesterday, so I think the gap will grow from Sat.   

 

Edit: to expand a bit more, it’s my impression that MT tends to overindex for kid and family movies and under index for R rated/adult movies. Part of why I always include the previous day to compare.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, a2k said:

no way it does 10x the previews over ow imo.

 

DOFP did 11.2x 5 years back with inflated Mem Day Sunday while APOC dropped to 8x again with an inflated Sunday.

 

Am expecting 7-7.5x the previews.

Wow even worse than I thought. So 20-30? Yikes

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

It's much much MUCH closer on Fandango, FWIW.

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-01 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.638%	18129	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.503%	18026	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	16.595%	12727	Rocketman
4	09.511%	7294	Ma (2019)
5	08.081%	6198	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

Virtual tie, as a matter of fact.

Still incredible that's it has already taken over. Great news for Aladdin!

[cdsacken]

SLOP daily numbers are bad as well right?

[keysersoze123]

Fandango owns MT. Fandango PS is way bigger than MT. MT tends to skew for smaller movies including Indian movies at times.

[Eric Lasagna]

Just so y'all know, I won't have the Pulse results for the week up until tomorrow morning. Because God hates me, I have a dentist's appointment tomorrow morning, so I need to get some early sleep in beforehand. But don't worry, I promise that I will still keep these results up to date for y'all.

[XXR vs XXR]

48 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

SLOP daily numbers are bad as well right?

 

Sold 41 tickets for Thursday at my theater so far. By comparison, TS4 has sold 122.