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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Cookson Box Office Gold

Cookson

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Not tracking MIBI, as it is the definition of garbage here. It has only sold 7 tickets, a fourth of what DPika and around a third of DPx had at the same time

Maybe holdovers can well.. hold pretty good next weekend.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

90

10595

12309*

13.92%

* NOTE: One theater adjusted the seats available for purchase, resulting in a loss of two seats available.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    87

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.7735x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 11 days before release.

1.9023x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 11 days before release.

2.2493x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 11 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-11:

Pika         38 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |     8030/8648 seats left    |  7.15% sold]

Aladdin    38 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings   |     9096/9997 seats left     |  9.01% sold]

KotM        45 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings   |  11367/12132 seats left    |  6.28% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9944x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 11 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-11:

JW2               76 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8507/10113 seats left  | 15.88% sold]

TS4 (JW)        79 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings |    9041/10638 seats left  | 15.01% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

14

1992

2338

14.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                24

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Thr 6/13

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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Men in Black 226 211 320 255 255 256 532
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
               
Toy Story 4 980 707 929 746 706 617 973
  18 days 17 days 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days
               
Annabelle 3   13 29 48 48 31 48
    22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days
               
Spider-Man FFH 582 544 692 577 493 344 509
  29 days 28 days 27 days 26 days 25 days 24 days 23 days

 

MIB

Day 11-5

41% of Dark Phoenix (13.5M)

28% of Shazam! (15M)

32% of Dragon 3 (17.8M)

43% of Dumbo (19.6M)

61% of Pets 2 (28.9M)

 

Day 16-5

48% of Dark Phoenix (15.9M)

35% of Shazam! (18.8M)

36% of Dragon 3 (20M)

48% of Dumbo (22M)

79% of Pets 2 (37.5M)

 

Is it foolish to say that I don't trust these comps and am optimistic about this movie's actual chances? Even with the lack of buzz or marketing,  I just feel like this can't open that low...can it?

 

Toy Story

Day 18-12

185% of Dumbo (85.2M)

301% of Lego 2 (101.8M)

194% of Dragon 3 (106.6M)

120% of Aladdin (109.8M 3-Day, 140.1M 4-Day)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.5M)

278% of Shazam (148.8M)

 

Day 24-12

237% of Shazam! (126.7M)

290% of Dragon 3 (159.8M)

107% of Incredibles 2 (195.1M)

 

So as of right now, I'm not in the "over I2 OW" hype train just yet, let alone "over 200M OW". The movie has slowed down considerably this week. But of course, the dream's not completely dead. There's still a few more days to go, and even if it does break the record, I don't think there's as much of a rush to buy tickets days in advance compared to something like Incredibles, both due to demand, and slightly different audience demographics. And of course, this should still do very well either way, if @Porthos and his data is anything to go by (though more of a #NotARecord kind of well). This week and next week will probably be the big deciding factors here over whether any records would be shattered.

 

Annabelle

Day 22-17

17% of Us (11.8M)

 

This is one that I decided to just throw in for fun. Partly because it could be used in the future for stuff like It: Chapter Two or Conjuring 3, and also partly because I only have three other movies to look at at this time, so might as well exercise my brain a bit by adding one more movie. And of course, I don't think we need to take this too seriously at the moment, especially because I don't think there's been an official "tickets on sale" announcement yet.

 

Far From Home

Day 29-23

37% of Captain Marvel (57.3M)

 

Day 36-23

30% of Captain Marvel (46.3M)

 

So this seems bad, but somebody mentioned that marketing was not in full force like Captain Marvel was at the same point in time, largely due to MIB occupying all of Sony's attention. So I am optimistic things will turn around fairly quickly and there will be a ticket increase. Then again, 2019 seems to be following Mickey's Law, where anything that can go wrong for all non-Disney studios will go wrong, so maybe this applies to a Disney movie under Sony's clothing?

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Men in Black 226 211 320 255 255 256 532
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
               
Toy Story 4 980 707 929 746 706 617 973
  18 days 17 days 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days
               
Annabelle 3   13 29 48 48 31 48
    22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days
               
Spider-Man FFH 582 544 692 577 493 344 509
  29 days 28 days 27 days 26 days 25 days 24 days 23 days

 

MIB

Day 11-5

41% of Dark Phoenix (13.5M)

28% of Shazam! (15M)

32% of Dragon 3 (17.8M)

43% of Dumbo (19.6M)

61% of Pets 2 (28.9M)

 

Day 16-5

48% of Dark Phoenix (15.9M)

35% of Shazam! (18.8M)

36% of Dragon 3 (20M)

48% of Dumbo (22M)

79% of Pets 2 (37.5M)

 

Is it foolish to say that I don't trust these comps and am optimistic about this movie's actual chances? Even with the lack of buzz or marketing,  I just feel like this can't open that low...can it?

 

Toy Story

Day 18-12

185% of Dumbo (85.2M)

301% of Lego 2 (101.8M)

194% of Dragon 3 (106.6M)

120% of Aladdin (109.8M 3-Day, 140.1M 4-Day)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.5M)

278% of Shazam (148.8M)

 

Day 24-12

237% of Shazam! (126.7M)

290% of Dragon 3 (159.8M)

107% of Incredibles 2 (195.1M)

 

So as of right now, I'm not in the "over I2 OW" hype train just yet, let alone "over 200M OW". The movie has slowed down considerably this week. But of course, the dream's not completely dead. There's still a few more days to go, and even if it does break the record, I don't think there's as much of a rush to buy tickets days in advance compared to something like Incredibles, both due to demand, and slightly different audience demographics. And of course, this should still do very well either way, if @Porthos and his data is anything to go by (though more of a #NotARecord kind of well). This week and next week will probably be the big deciding factors here over whether any records would be shattered.

 

Annabelle

Day 22-17

17% of Us (11.8M)

 

This is one that I decided to just throw in for fun. Partly because it could be used in the future for stuff like It: Chapter Two or Conjuring 3, and also partly because I only have three other movies to look at at this time, so might as well exercise my brain a bit by adding one more movie. And of course, I don't think we need to take this too seriously at the moment, especially because I don't think there's been an official "tickets on sale" announcement yet.

 

Far From Home

Day 29-23

37% of Captain Marvel (57.3M)

 

Day 36-23

30% of Captain Marvel (46.3M)

 

So this seems bad, but somebody mentioned that marketing was not in full force like Captain Marvel was at the same point in time, largely due to MIB occupying all of Sony's attention. So I am optimistic things will turn around fairly quickly and there will be a ticket increase. Then again, 2019 seems to be following Mickey's Law, where anything that can go wrong for all non-Disney studios will go wrong, so maybe this applies to a Disney movie under Sony's clothing?

again, its 6 day opening, i think there is really no need for people to star bying tickets for a movie, when thery have 6 days

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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 Even with the lack of buzz or marketing,  I just feel like this can't open that low...can it?

 

Well, if the last two weeks are any indication...

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

@CoolEric258  TS4 had definitely slowed down before today, both nationally and locally.  Was even to the point where it was trending to a 14m to 15m Thr, as opposed to a 15+m Thr.

 

I emphasize today because there was a spike locally across the board AND it jumped into the Fandango Top Ten late tonight.  Jumped almost 300 sets of tickets on Fandango if I recall correctly.

 

Also,, IIRC, the World Premiere is in a couple of days (forget the exact date).  So might start seeing a slow and steady rise on ticket sales.

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UserHN Box Office Gold

UserHN

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Toy Story

Day 18-12

185% of Dumbo (85.2M)

301% of Lego 2 (101.8M)

194% of Dragon 3 (106.6M)

120% of Aladdin (109.8M 3-Day, 140.1M 4-Day)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.5M)

278% of Shazam (148.8M)

 

Day 24-12

237% of Shazam! (126.7M)

290% of Dragon 3 (159.8M)

107% of Incredibles 2 (195.1M)

 

So as of right now, I'm not in the "over I2 OW" hype train just yet, let alone "over 200M OW". The movie has slowed down considerably this week. But of course, the dream's not completely dead. There's still a few more days to go, and even if it does break the record, I don't think there's as much of a rush to buy tickets days in advance compared to something like Incredibles, both due to demand, and slightly different audience demographics. And of course, this should still do very well either way, if @Porthos and his data is anything to go by (though more of a #NotARecord kind of well). This week and next week will probably be the big deciding factors here over whether any records would be shattered.

Would you say that TS4 will most likey open with $150M+ with this kind of presales?

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

14

1992

2338

14.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                24

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Thr 6/13

good ?

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