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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

explaining the joke : one line answer are usually for 1 mark. Sometime there are questions demanding a descriptive answer, whose main concept is just in one line, for 6 marks, so you have to over elaborate it.

 

That said, I wonder how's the exam pattern in USA.

Ah, gotcha.  Def misunderstood then. 👍

 

As for the exam pattern in the US, I've been long out of school, but it's nothing like that.  Also kinda varies by school/university so it's not like it's that standard at the college/university level.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's just instinct. If True Tuesday is going for $45mn plus, Midnight will be $5-10mn atleast going by historical numbers.

 

Now we can't rely on pre-sales to judge trend. Like the one you posted, I know jokingly. If Tuesday is $45mn plus ($50-55mn including previews) we will be expecting $32-33mn Wednesday followed by $23-24mn Thursday. 

 

Eventually $100-110mn FSS. We are set for $205-222mn.

I believe FFH has only midnights though whereas most midnights are throughout the morning, which will depress the midnight total a lot

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted (edited)

Toy Story 4

Thursday Previews

 

Toy Story 4
Date 5.29 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.1 6.13 6.17 Total % Sold Seats
Lincoln Square 340 420 441 485 532 -- 793 2470 32.1 261 436
Cinemagic -- 15 17 17 23 26 64 2434 2.62 38 0

 

 

Monday Before Release
Comp Sold Percent
Lincoln Square 13
Toy Story 793  
Pika Pika 465 171%
JW3 486 163%
Aladdin 627 129%
Rocketman 284 279%
Zilla 857 93%
Thorkyrie 482 165%
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Toy Story 64  
Pika Pika 34 188%
JW3 60 107%
Aladdin 36 178%
Rocketman 6 1067%
Zilla 73 88%
Dark Phoenix 35 183%
Thorkyrie 15 427%

 

I'm including them all for the lolz, but I think Aladdin's the best comp at the moment. They are:

 

LS13 8.8M

SMCM 12.4M

 

So that's pretty solid with a week to go.  

Edited by captainwondyful
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ah, gotcha.  Def misunderstood then. 👍

 

As for the exam pattern in the US, I've been long out of school, but it's nothing like that.  Also kinda varies by school/university so it's not like it's that standard at the college/university level.

As someone unfortunately much less removed from exams, a lot of AP tests have these irritating questions that can be answered in one or two lines but they demand a "paragraph length response". That seems sorta similar to this, although it's not university level

Edited by Menor
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)

Spidey midnight shows are very limited. I looked at NY/SF and most theaters just have a show. Only AMC Empire 25 in NYC has lots of shows. I would wait for another week to see to see how things progress but no way its looking like a 10m midnights as of now.

 

Also as Fandango report page is showing its skewed towards OD rather than midnight sales. in AMC Metreon 16 the midnight iMax show is almost empty while OD shows are doing good(evening shows are doing great). Lincoln Sq Imax midnights is not bad but I would expect it to sell out for uber blockbusters.

 

Toy Story also needs to pick up its PS if its going to come close to I2 but Wang's numbers are so promising that I cant see sub 150m at this point.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey midnight shows are very limited. I looked at NY/SF and most theaters just have a show. Only AMC Empire 25 in NYC has lots of shows. I would wait for another week to see to see how things progress but no way its looking like a 10m midnights as of now.

Unless show times expand quite a bit, and there's no demand to do that at the moment, it's probably not hitting 5m midnight, never mind 10m.

 

I think if every last seat sold out in Sacto it'd be looking like around 5m to 6m.  Maybe.  

 

I mentioned it before, but I'll mention it again. This isn't being shown like a traditional midnight of days gone by (with showings at midnight, 1am, 2am on most if not all of the screens).  This is playing much more like a limited engagement or an early access type deal.  At least when it comes to number of showtimes per theater as well as number of theaters participating.

 

Heck, only about a third of the theaters locally that have FFH currently have midnight showings (7 out of 20). 

 

Just need to ratchet down the expectations and be happy/surprised if it does play more like a midnight of ye olden days.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's just instinct. If True Tuesday is going for $45mn plus, Midnight will be $5-10mn atleast going by historical numbers.

Unless people have grown soft, and weak, and spoiled, and no longer posses the will for true midnights. Then we might see a midnights:OD ratio far outside historical norms.    

 

Speaking as occasional US moviegoer, I think we have grown soft, weak, and spoiled 😛 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

119

11061

14304

22.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today:          27 [includes 8 non-reserved seating showings]

Total Seats Added Today:             1839

Total Seats Sold Today:                  460

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.1838x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 3 days before release.

1.9992x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 3 days before release.

2.2678x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 3 days before release.

 

T-3:

Pika        238 tickets sold [0 sellouts/71 showings   |     6647/8132 seats left    |  18.26% sold]

Aladdin  173 tickets sold [0 sellouts/93 showings   |   10983/12611 seats left   |  12.91% sold]

KotM      131 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |  12310/13740 seats left    |  10.41% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0299x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 3 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-3:

JW2            443 tickets sold [0 sellouts/118 showings |    9224/12097 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

TS4 (JW)     431 tickets sold [0 sellouts/119 showings |    9674/12633 seats left  | 23.42% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

17

2393

2796

14.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      16

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.8109x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 14 days before their showings.

 

T-15 days:

FB2 sneaks       0 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 902/1399 seats left  |  35.53% sold]

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
On 6/16/2019 at 10:35 PM, Porthos said: 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-16 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.547%	12076	Men in Black International [combined]
2	12.836%	9368	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.461%	8365	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	07.503%	5476	Rocketman
5	07.398%	5399	Toy Story 4 [combined]
6	07.276%	5310	Dark Phoenix
7	06.569%	4794	Shaft (2019)
8	06.567%	4793	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	06.519%	4758	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
10	04.020%	2934	Avengers Endgame (2019)
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-17 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.721%	12252	Toy Story 4 [combined]
2	13.655%	8074	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.896%	7034	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	11.355%	6714	Men in Black International [combined]
5	05.541%	3276	Rocketman
6	05.163%	3053	Dark Phoenix
7	04.526%	2676	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	04.179%	2471	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	03.755%	2220	Shaft (2019)
10	03.164%	1871	Avengers Endgame (2019)
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

T-3:

JW2            443 tickets sold [0 sellouts/118 showings |    9224/12097 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

TS4 (JW)     431 tickets sold [0 sellouts/119 showings |    9674/12633 seats left  | 23.42% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Got to say, this is starting to get rather eerie. qnqGT0e.png qnqGT0e.png qnqGT0e.png

 

===

 

Of course, even if TS4 sold the exact same number of tickets locally,  I'd still have to call for under 15m in previews simply of more children's tickets being sold and the PLF's not being bought quite as much. Sure, 

 

That being said, even I'm surprised at how well this is tracking against JW:FK so far.

Edited by Porthos
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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday

A Wrinkle In Time 3,698 4,864   15,601

Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  

Adrift 63 308 1,268  

Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  

Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1,282 3,403  

Antman & The Wasp 6,613 5,990 11,108  

Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509

Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737

Kin 21 141 263 741

Hellfest 195 304 661  

Nutcracker 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518

Fantastic Beasts 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880

Possession of Hannah Grace 105 285 893 3,053

Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 19,972

Replicas 21 133 336 1,002

Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320

The Prodigy 161 359 847 2,288

How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313

Greta 120 287 824 1,962

Captive State 60 172 402 1,203

Dumbo 3,069 4,624 9,218 16,140

Shazam 5,099 **391 ***2,099 17,154

The Curse of La Llorona 896 1,159 2,704 8,279

Aladdin 9,948 12,038 21,152 31,549

Toy Story 4 12,605      
Child's Play 657      
Anna 70    

**12am-5am        
***7pm-12am        

 

Toy Story

Monday

141% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (87.5M)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.3M)

341% of A Wrinkle in Time (112.9M)

127% of Aladdin (115.9M 3-Day, 148M 4-Day)

339% of Spider-Verse (120M)

247% of Shazam! (132.3M)

191% of Ant-Man 2 (144.5M)

760% of Nutcracker (154.6M)

494% of Lego 2 (168.5M)

338% of Dragon 3 (186.2M)

411% of Dumbo (188.9M)

808% of Christopher Robin (198.6M)

135% of Jurassic World 2 (200.4M)

 

Day 11-4

64% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

135% of Aladdin (123.5M 3-Day, 157.6M 4-Day)

268% of Shazam! (143.2M)

475% of Lego 2 (162.1M)

330% of Dragon 3 (181.6M)

421% of Dumbo (193.8M)

 

Day 18-4

63% of Incredibles 2 (115.3M)

132% of Aladdin (121.3M 3-Day, 154.8M 4-Day)

438% of Lego 2 (149.6M)

269% of Shazam! (144M)

355% of Dumbo (163.5M)

299% of Dragon 3 (164.8M)

 

So, is it bad to say I'm kinda disappointed with this Monday? It's obviously fantastic in a vacuum, and it should still deliver an opening higher than TS3, but...I dunno, I feel like if this movie was gonna breakout, it should be doing higher, at like 15K tickets or something. But hey, maybe I'm just overreacting over nothing. It is admittedly pretty late.

 

Child's Play

100% of Hereditary (13.5M)

83% of Sicario 2 (15.8M)

337% of Hell Fest (17.3M)

73% of La Llorona (19.3M)

408% of The Prodigy (23.9M)

171% of Truth or Dare (31.9M)

626% of Hannah Grace (40.1M)

371% of Slender Man (42.2M)

 

This is actually pretty solid for Child's Play. Sure it could be a bit presales-driven due to the established fanbase, but this seems pretty decent, although I have strong doubts in the high-end even being a possibility.

 

Anna

58% of Greta (2.6M)

117% of Captive State (3.6M)

333% of Replicas (7.9M)

269% of Hotel Artemis (8.7M)

333% of Kin (10.1M)

111% of Adrift (12.9M)

 

I honestly forgot this movie even existed until today. And I got the trailer for this in front of two different movies. Probably says a lot about this movie's prospects more than these numbers do.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Jurassic World 2 is such an odd comparison, but I have faith that TS4 will have better walkup business.

Well it's not like I have many comparisons available, personally.  But out of all the comps I do have, JW:FK is easily the King of the Walkups.   Pretty much the only reason I'm using it.  More intellectual curiosity than anything else. 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time 3,698 4,864   15,601
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1,282 3,403  
Antman & The Wasp 6,613 5,990 11,108  
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
Kin 21 141 263 741
Hellfest 195 304 661  
Nutcracker 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518
Fantastic Beasts 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880
Possession of Hannah Grace 105 285 893 3,053
Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 19,972
Replicas 21 133 336 1,002
Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320
The Prodigy 161 359 847 2,288
How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313
Greta 120 287 824 1,962
Captive State 60 172 402 1,203
Dumbo 3,069 4,624 9,218 16,140
Shazam 5,099 **391 ***2,099 17,154
The Curse of La Llorona 896 1,159 2,704 8,279
Aladdin 9,948 12,038 21,152 31,549

Toy Story 4 12,605      
Child's Play 657      
Anna 70    
**12am-5am        
***7pm-12am        

 

Toy Story

Monday

141% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (87.5M)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.3M)

341% of A Wrinkle in Time (112.9M)

127% of Aladdin (115.9M 3-Day, 148M 4-Day)

339% of Spider-Verse (120M)

247% of Shazam! (132.3M)

191% of Ant-Man 2 (144.5M)

760% of Nutcracker (154.6M)

494% of Lego 2 (168.5M)

338% of Dragon 3 (186.2M)

411% of Dumbo (188.9M)

808% of Christopher Robin (198.6M)

135% of Jurassic World 2 (200.4M)

 

Day 11-4

64% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

135% of Aladdin (123.5M 3-Day, 157.6M 4-Day)

268% of Shazam! (143.2M)

475% of Lego 2 (162.1M)

330% of Dragon 3 (181.6M)

421% of Dumbo (193.8M)

 

Day 18-4

63% of Incredibles 2 (115.3M)

132% of Aladdin (121.3M 3-Day, 154.8M 4-Day)

438% of Lego 2 (149.6M)

269% of Shazam! (144M)

355% of Dumbo (163.5M)

299% of Dragon 3 (164.8M)

 

So, is it bad to say I'm kinda disappointed with this Monday? It's obviously fantastic in a vacuum, and it should still deliver an opening higher than TS3, but...I dunno, I feel like if this movie was gonna breakout, it should be doing higher, at like 15K tickets or something. But hey, maybe I'm just overreacting over nothing. It is admittedly pretty late.

 

Child's Play

100% of Hereditary (13.5M)

83% of Sicario 2 (15.8M)

337% of Hell Fest (17.3M)

73% of La Llorona (19.3M)

408% of The Prodigy (23.9M)

171% of Truth or Dare (31.9M)

626% of Hannah Grace (40.1M)

371% of Slender Man (42.2M)

 

This is actually pretty solid for Child's Play. Sure it could be a bit presales-driven due to the established fanbase, but this seems pretty decent, although I have strong doubts in the high-end even being a possibility.

 

Anna

58% of Greta (2.6M)

117% of Captive State (3.6M)

333% of Replicas (7.9M)

269% of Hotel Artemis (8.7M)

333% of Kin (10.1M)

111% of Adrift (12.9M)

 

I honestly forgot this movie even existed until today. And I got the trailer for this in front of two different movies. Probably says a lot about this movie's prospects more than these numbers do.

it depends what do you compare for toy story 4 , 15k would be the maximum it would ,

 

ps anyway no spiderman ?

Edited by john2000
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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Toy Story

Monday

141% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (87.5M)

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.3M)

341% of A Wrinkle in Time (112.9M)

127% of Aladdin (115.9M 3-Day, 148M 4-Day)

339% of Spider-Verse (120M)

247% of Shazam! (132.3M)

191% of Ant-Man 2 (144.5M)

760% of Nutcracker (154.6M)

494% of Lego 2 (168.5M)

338% of Dragon 3 (186.2M)

411% of Dumbo (188.9M)

808% of Christopher Robin (198.6M)

135% of Jurassic World 2 (200.4M)

 

Day 11-4

64% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

135% of Aladdin (123.5M 3-Day, 157.6M 4-Day)

268% of Shazam! (143.2M)

475% of Lego 2 (162.1M)

330% of Dragon 3 (181.6M)

421% of Dumbo (193.8M)

 

Day 18-4

63% of Incredibles 2 (115.3M)

132% of Aladdin (121.3M 3-Day, 154.8M 4-Day)

438% of Lego 2 (149.6M)

269% of Shazam! (144M)

355% of Dumbo (163.5M)

299% of Dragon 3 (164.8M)

 

So, is it bad to say I'm kinda disappointed with this Monday? It's obviously fantastic in a vacuum, and it should still deliver an opening higher than TS3, but...I dunno, I feel like if this movie was gonna breakout, it should be doing higher, at like 15K tickets or something. But hey, maybe I'm just overreacting over nothing. It is admittedly pretty late.

 

We'll see come Friday, but there might be something to that the animated comps suggesting under $150M are superhero films.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Anna isn't WB though.

i thought anna was short for annabelle3 :lol:

that's why felt the presales were crap. just checked it's a different movie. 

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Sunny Max Box Office Gold

Sunny Max

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, superduperm said:

Jurassic World 2 is such an odd comparison, but I have faith that TS4 will have better walkup business.

True .. animated movies generally depends on more walkups ... 

 

JW : FK had massive walkups ...

Edited by Sunny Max
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