The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Is that just a last-minute date change, or is my area being weird?

My local Cinemagic Chain still has their showings starting at 4PM.  Empire 25 has their first showing at 11AM on Tuesday.  Lincoln Square has no times listed.  

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

So the comps are coming out pretty consistent.

 

Dora: 1.26M

       

19 hours ago, Porthos said:

Dora increased a tad from the last check.  Now at .21996x Pika Pika for final check.  More or less the same point in time as Pika, if not a couple minutes earlier.

 

That gives 1.25m in previews.  No 3D so lets say,  around 1m in previews?  Nothing to write home about, but a nice recovery from earlier.

If I hadn't adjusted for 3D, I'd have hit it exactly!  Ah well, pretty good regardless, I'd say. 👍

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

So I did a count for Dora... and it's actually doing very well. About 36 hours ago it was at 101 tickets sold. Now it's at 385 tickets sold.

 

TLK comp: 1.17M

Way to go as well. 👍

 

You can blame me for following in my footsteps and attempting to adjust too much in the post I didn't quote.

 

====

 

Wonder if the West Coast came in strong for Dora and/or Regal Unlimited had anything to do with the slight boost?  Both likely culprits, IMO.

 

Either way, congrats once again, BOT Tracking thread!

Edited August 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

So I was prepping up my tables for next week, but I think Angry Birds got moved up a day? Before previews started at 4 on Tuesday, but now all of a sudden it's starting at 10 AM. Is that just a last-minute date change, or is my area being weird?

Can confirm.  Showings now up all day at some theaters Tuesday in Sacks o' Tomatoes.  I do recall it being previews before, so presumably the signal was sent to change it to an all-day release.

Edited August 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

BOP Long Range Forecast - Joker Edition

 

Quote

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Release Tracking	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/13/2019	The Angry Birds Movie 2	$17,000,000	-11%	$70,000,000		3,500	Sony / Columbia
8/16/2019	47 Meters Down: Uncaged	$13,000,000	-13%	$34,000,000	-13%	2,500	Entertainment Studios
8/16/2019	Blinded By the Light	$5,500,000	-15%	$18,000,000	-10%	2,000	Warner Bros.
8/16/2019	Good Boys	$12,000,000	-20%	$36,000,000	-16%	3,000	Universal
8/16/2019	Where’d You Go, Bernadette	$6,000,000	-45%	$25,000,000	-44%	2,300	United Artists Releasing
8/23/2019	Angel Has Fallen	$17,000,000		$49,000,000		3,400	Lionsgate
8/23/2019	Overcomer	$6,500,000		$24,000,000		1,750	Sony / AFFIRM Films
8/23/2019	Ready or Not	n/a		n/a		n/a	Fox Searchlight
8/30/2019	Las Píldoras De Mi Novio (My Boyfriend’s Meds)	n/a		n/a			Lionsgate
9/6/2019	It: Chapter 2	$138,000,000	2%	$310,000,000	2%		Warner Bros. / New Line
9/13/2019	The Goldfinch	$10,000,000		$33,000,000			Warner Bros.
9/13/2019	Hustlers	$13,000,000		$39,000,000			STX
9/20/2019	Ad Astra	$20,000,000		$65,000,000			Fox
9/20/2019	Downton Abbey	n/a		n/a			Universal
9/20/2019	Rambo: Last Blood	$14,500,000		$35,000,000			Lionsgate
9/27/2019	Abominable	$22,500,000		$75,000,000			Universal
9/27/2019	The Hunt (2019)	n/a		n/a			Universal
10/4/2019	Joker	$77,000,000	NEW	$175,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.

 

Good range for Joker, IMO.  Solid analysis of the pro/cons (click the link to read it, people, and help @Shawn and his team out!).

 

Interesting that It 2 is on a slight upswing.  Good to see that it seems to be performing slightly better than even a pretty optimistic forecast might suggest.

[TLK]

Joker will open over $100 million.

[Eric S'ennui]

It: Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	497	18,516	2.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 494

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Adjusted Comp

7.13x of Hobbs & Shaw 27 days before release (41.4M)

 

Crumbling again. How is Stephen King gonna show his face in Hollywood again?

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	99	13126	13639*	513	3.76%

*NOTE:  One theater adjusted the seats they had available for their showings, resulting in eight fewer seats overall in the region.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in Detective Pikachu since it's the only film that I have info on that had light pre-sales this far out.  I'll add back in more films closer to release.

 

T-27 Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	210.25		33	244		0/72	7765/8009	3.05%		11.98m

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu 30 days of pre-sales while It 2 had 36.

Edited August 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Neucentro]

No one's tracking next week's releases?

[a2k]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

It: Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	497	18,516	2.68%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 494

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Adjusted Comp

7.13x of Hobbs & Shaw 27 days before release (41.4M)

 

Crumbling again. How is Stephen King gonna show his face in Hollywood again?

he will hide it in shame

[Cap]

34 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

No one's tracking next week's releases?

Hello Dolly has sold 3 tickets at Cinemagic for its Wednesday TCM Presents and 70 tickets for its Wednesday at AMC Empire 25.  

 

 

 

[TMP]

7 hours ago, TLK said:

Joker will open over $100 million.

I could see it, the trailer generated an insane amount of interest. If Joaquin is Ledger-level good (albeit his take is completely different) then I could see audiences eating it up, even with it being as dark as it is.

[Neucentro]

7 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Hello Dolly has sold 3 tickets at Cinemagic for its Wednesday TCM Presents and 70 tickets for its Wednesday at AMC Empire 25.  

 

 

 

Thanks. The Giant Spider Invasion has sold one grand ticket for August 15 from the one theater I checked.

[XXR & Friends]

It: Chapter 2 -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 25 Days to Previews 

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 show times, 89 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (12.5%)

Digital: 22 show times, 11 tickets sold out of 1796 seats available (00.6%)

 

Total: 26 show times, 100 tickets sold out of 2508 seats available (3.99%)

 

 

Edited August 10, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

T-27 Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	210.25		33	244		0/72	7765/8009	3.05%		11.98m

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu 30 days of pre-sales while It 2 had 36.

It: Chapter One did 13.5 on it's preview back in 2017.  This is probably still lolrandomchance as opposed to being a decent comp, but it might suggest that It 2 is performing right where it should be on raw ticket sales.

 

I'll be curious to see how this develops over the next few days.  Pika Pika had pretty low sales almost immediately out of the gate right after its initial surge:

 

Pika Pika (started on T-29):

T-27:    33
T-26:    20
T-25:    19
T-24:    22
T-23:    13
T-22:    14
T-21:    23
T-20:    16

 

Judging by how It 2 has been selling the last few days, I doubt it'll be 2x Pika Pika for the next couple of days, so I would expect the comp to come down a bit.  Could see 1.5x this weekend and Monday, though.  Once we get to Tue (T-23), then it might start hitting 2x Pika again.

 

Still, an encouraging sign IMO. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/8/2019 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 14/411

10:45 PM – 0/411

Prime: 

7 PM – 4/187

10:45 PM – 1/187

Dolby: 

7 PM – 65/217(+3)

10:45 PM – 3/217

2D: 

5 PM – 0/56

5:15 PM – 0/38

5:30 PM – 1/38(+1)

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 0/48

6:15 PM – 0/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 0/158

7 PM – 2/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 0/94

7:45 PM – 0/94

8 PM – 0/48

8:15 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 0/44

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 0/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

11 PM – 0/92

11:15 PM – 0/94

11:30 PM – 0/94

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 3/384

10:45 PM – 5/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 61/210(+1)

10:45 PM – 7/210

2D: 

5 PM – 0/85

5:30 PM – 0/52

6 PM – 0/52

6:30 PM – 0/52

7 PM – 9/159

7:30 PM – 0/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 0/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 0/52

Total from 9 theaters(97 showings): 402(+26)/14474 (2.8%)

IT: Chapter 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 18/411(+4)

10:45 PM – 0/411

Prime:

7 PM – 13/187(+9)

10:45 PM – 3/187(+2)

Dolby:

7 PM – 71/217(+6)

10:45 PM – 3/217

2D:

5 PM – 0/56

5:15 PM – 0/38

5:30 PM – 1/38

5:45 PM – 0/48

6 PM – 0/48

6:15 PM – 0/44

6:30 PM – 0/44

7 PM – 0/158

7 PM – 2/92

7:15 PM – 2/92

7:30 PM – 0/94

7:45 PM – 0/94

8 PM – 0/48

8:15 PM – 0/48

8:30 PM – 0/44

8:45 PM – 0/56

9 PM – 0/38

9:15 PM – 0/38

9:30 PM – 0/48

9:45 PM – 0/48

10 PM – 0/44

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:30 PM – 0/44

10:45 PM – 0/158

10:45 PM – 0/92

11 PM – 0/92

11:15 PM – 0/94

11:30 PM – 0/94

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 6/384(+3)

10:45 PM – 5/384

Dolby:

7 PM – 67/210(+6)

10:45 PM – 7/210

2D:

5 PM – 0/85

5:30 PM – 0/52

6 PM – 0/52

6:30 PM – 0/52

7 PM – 9/159

7:30 PM – 0/85

7:45 PM – 0/85

8:45 PM – 0/85

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:45 PM – 0/52

10:15 PM – 3/52(+3)

Total from 9 theaters(97 showings): 457(+55)/14474 (3.2%)

[Eric S'ennui]

It: Chapter Two Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	506	18,516	2.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Adjusted Comp

5.58x of Hobbs & Shaw 26 days before release (32.4M)

 

Still crumbling, which may seem bad, but it's more of a combination of coming down to Earth (which is good) and H&S actually selling tickets in a couple theaters that started out with zero. I do hope things do pick up sooner rather than later.

[Porthos]

It: Chapter 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	99	13099	13639	540	3.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

Not really sure what to use as a comp for this film, since as I understand it horror isn't that pre-sale heavy.  Maybe.  For now, gonna throw in Detective Pikachu since it's the only film that I have info on that had light pre-sales this far out.  I'll add back in more films closer to release.

 

T-26 Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika	204.55		20	264		0/72	7745/8009	3.30%		11.66m

PRE-SALES NOTE: Detective Pikachu 30 days of pre-sales while It 2 had 36.

Edited August 11, 2019 by Porthos

[StarWarsMemer]

Why isnt anyone tracking Angry Birds lol

[Jamiem]

7 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Why isnt anyone tracking Angry Birds lol

I would assume because it isn’t a big release and opens on a non-conventional day so it would be hard to do comps and/or use as a comp for future releases. 

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Why isnt anyone tracking Angry Birds lol

I’ll probably do a last minute one just so I can actually make use of my Far From Home numbers