The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Wild Eric]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,269	30,741	30.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

4.873x of Once Upon’s final count (28.26M)

2.676x of It: Chapter Two (28.09M)

1.888x of Joker (25.11M)

13.298x of Maleficent (30.59M)

10.642x of Terminator (25.01M)

2.758x of Frozen II (23.44M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.794x of Lion King (18.26M)

3.767x of Hobbs & Shaw (21.85M)

 

A tad disappointed the film crashed down to Earth, not gonna lie. But maybe things will pick up in the future. At least, I hope so.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	209	11602	24474	12872	52.59%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	160
Total Seats Sold Today	80

 

T-23 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	381.76		38	3223		2/81	7393/10616	30.36%		79.02m
TROS (adj)	n/a		80	12304		2/209	10908/23212	53.01%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-23 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	161.48		82	6807		1/116	4318/11125	61.19%		62.98m
TROS (adj)	n/a		72	10992		2/209	8101/19093	57.57%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	72.51		15159		10992		28.28m
DP2	135.15		8133		10992		25.14m
Solo	189.88		5789		10992		26.77m
JW:FK	176.49		6228		10992		27.00m
AM&tW	238.70		4605		10992		27.45m
Venom	255.20		4493		11466		25.52m
CM	116.59		10553		12304		24.13m
EG	46.16		26655		12304		27.70m
TLK	112.09		10977		12304		25.78m
It 2	227.46		5659		12872		23.88m
AVG							26.17m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	256	13700	53600	39900	25.56%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 149

[Tinalera]

Star Wars the return of skywalker dec20 Toronto Ontario (taken nov 26)

Total showings:61
Sellouts: 6
Seats sold:7265
Total seats 14967
Percentage: 48

 

Amount was 48 not 45 percent i

Oops lol

 

Trying this compact version out. Do people still wish breakdown of IMAX, vip, regular ect?

Just wondering howthis compares to listing every showtime lol

Edited November 27, 2019 by Tinalera

[Gavin Feng]

Quote

'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' Tracking for $175M-$200M U.S. Bow

The Force is with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, according to early tracking.

Directed by J.J. Abrams, the December tentpole is on course to open to at least $175 million to $200 million in its domestic debut over the Dec. 20-22 weekend, on par with early forecasts for Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

In December 2015, The Force Awakens — also directed by Abrams — revived the franchise with a then-record domestic debut of $248 million. The Last Jedi debuted to $220 million in December 2017.

Lucasfilm and Disney are trying to manage expectations for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, considering the volatile state of the box office. And Skywalker also faces competition from Jumanji: The Next Level, which hits theaters a week earlier and is showing sizeable strength on tracking.

The Rise of the Skywalker is the ninth and final installment in the George Lucas-created series that first hit the big screen in 1977.

Skywalker's ensemble cast is led by Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Mark Hammll, Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, Anthony Daniels, Naomi Ackie, Domhnall Gleeson, Richard E. Grant, Lupita Nyong'o, Keri Russell, Joonas Suotamo, Kelly Marie Tran, Ian McDiarmid, Billy Dee Williams and the late Carrie Fisher.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/star-wars-rise-skywalker-tracking-175m-200m-us-bow-1258240

[Valonqar]

Fuck, I'm really scared for IW OW now. if tracking is 200M 3-4 weeks before the opening than it's going to go higher when it opens. 

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/star-wars-rise-skywalker-tracking-175m-200m-us-bow-1258240

Seems about right. I’m thinking closer to 175m

[The Wild Eric]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, I'm really scared for IW OW now. if tracking is 200M 3-4 weeks before the opening than it's going to go higher when it opens. 

that...that's not how that works.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, I'm really scared for IW OW now. if tracking is 200M 3-4 weeks before the opening than it's going to go higher when it opens. 

That's not always how it works, TS4 for example was tracking for 200 million!

[ThomasNicole]

Basically the same of TFA / TLJ trackings, so it’s great

 

Good to hear Disney is playing safe with expectations

 

Around $ 200M seems right for me, i’m expecting slighty less ($ 42M previews x 4.55 multiplier for $ 191M OW), but with the marketing starting to be aggressive, could help to pass $ 200M, presales seems really good these last days

 

Still not buying it will come close to TLJ though, even if i think total will be higher 

[The Wild Eric]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-projection-reasons-why-1202796194/

 

Quote

We’ve been hearing for quite some time from exhibitors and distribution sources that advance ticket sales are strong, but not overly robust for Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, meaning in the way that they were for 2015’s Force Awakens ($247.9M) and 2017’s Last Jedi ($220M). Hence, early AM estimates for the J.J. Abrams movie hitting tracking, when averaged are $205M given the comparative titles provided. No one is seeing $175M at this moment, but in the same breath a major tracking agency won’t provide their absolute prediction until 8AM.

 

[XO21]

Not an event

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

https://deadline.com/2019/11/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-projection-reasons-why-1202796194/

 

 

If advanced tickets are lower than TLJ than its opening under it. Maybe 180-190

Edited November 27, 2019 by John Marston

[filmlover]

FWIW this Star Wars is opening less than a week before Christmas (while the previous two opened on the 18th and the 15th) so it's possible a portion of the audience is waiting until then to see it given the closer proximity. It's already filling up the Christmas Day shows just as much as it is for any of the days that opening weekend around here.

Edited November 27, 2019 by filmlover

[Valonqar]

Too early to call and could be walk up driven. Some fans may be waiting for reactions to decide whether to see it. 

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Seems about right. I’m thinking closer to 175m

That would be beyond disastrous! 

 

I can see the movie making less in OW than TLJ even if the previews are comparable. Those who want to see it on Thursday will. Those who would wait until Friday-Saturday-Sunday may as well wait until Monday or the following week (except Tuesday). And there will be those hesitant and waiting to find out what others think. If WOM is good, then the naysayers will start to see it through the next 2 weeks that follow.

 

But if the movie makes too much less than TLJ's OW, I don't see it beating TLJ's overall.

[excel1]

Knives out will go mini Vesuvius on us 

[filmlover]

Also Variety wrote a piece on Cats and it sounds like they don't know what to expect from it given everyone's reaction to the movie's jarring visual aesthetic.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-opening-weekend-early-tracking-1203417884/

[Menor the Destroyer]

If overall PS is below TLJ then that's not a great sign considering it has Christmas in the very next week (so should have an advantage in PS), and also considering 2 years growth in presales.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

If overall PS is below TLJ then that's not a great sign considering it has Christmas in the very next week (so should have an advantage in PS), and also considering 2 years growth in presales.

Agreed, 190-200M seems About right

 

It doesn’t need to match TLJ to surpass it’s total anyway

 

I can easily see a scenario when this movie debut with 195M And people will freakout only to finish with 650M